Accurate prediction of network-wide delay is crucial for air traffic management and passenger service. However, the inherent complexity of large-scale air traffic networks, with their dense interconnectivity and multi-dimensional operational dynamics such as flight connectivity, makes this task highly challenging. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) offer a promising framework, prevailing models are constrained by a “node → edge → node” representation paradigm, which fails to preserve the high-fidelity, edge-centric operational data that encodes delay propagation paths. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel edge-based GNN. Our approach begins with a flight-connectivity-informed delay characterization, introducing delay width and delay strength as core metrics. The model implements an “edge → node” message-passing mechanism that explicitly encodes inbound and outbound flights, enabling direct learning of delay diffusion dynamics along air routes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, achieving the lowest RMSE, MAE, and MSE. A layered performance analysis reveals a key strength: the model delivers superior accuracy at major hub airports—which are critical to network performance—while maintaining robust precision at small-to-medium-sized airports. This balanced capability underscores the model’s practical utility and its enhanced capacity to capture the essential spatial–temporal dependencies governing delay propagation across diverse airport tiers.

Accurate prediction of air traffic noise is critical for advancing environmentally sustainable operations in high density terminal areas. Conventional noise prediction models often exhibit significant limitations due to discrepancies between actual and nominal flight trajectories. To overcome this challenge, this study introduces a probabilistic framework that integrates real air-traffic-flow data to generate realistic flight trajectory distributions. The proposed methodology extracts key operational features—including trajectory distribution probabilities, and essential trajectory operation features—within a machine learning architecture. Furthermore, we develop a dedicated air traffic noise prediction model for clustered flight paths that explicitly incorporates traffic flow patterns, enabling high-fidelity simulation of noise propagation under actual air traffic operation. The framework is validated using a QAR (Quick Access Recorder) dataset from the terminal area of Changsha Huanghua International Airport. Experimental results demonstrate the model’s high predictive accuracy for both air traffic noise distribution and its influence, coupled with computational efficiency and practical applicability. The findings indicate that the proposed approach successfully addresses the challenge of predicting air traffic noise from divergent, real-world flight trajectories, offering a robust method for supporting noise-abatement strategies and sustainable aviation-planning initiatives.