The airport apron is a high-risk area for aircraft collisions due to its heavy operational load and high aircraft density. Currently, existing quantitative models for apron collision risk provide limited consideration and classification of risk areas. In response, this paper proposes a Petri net-based method for assessing aircraft collision risk. The method predicts the probability of aircraft reaching different areas at different times based on operational data, enabling the calculation of collision risks within the Petri net framework. This approach highlights areas with potential collision risks and provides a classification evaluation. Subsequently, aircraft path re-planning is carried out to reduce collision risks. The model simplifies the complex operations of the apron system, making the calculation process clearer. The results show that, during the mid-phase of aircraft taxiing, there is a significant deviation between the actual and ideal positions of aircraft. Areas with high taxiway occupancy are more prone to collision risks. On peak days, due to relatively high flight volumes, the frequency of collision risks is 14% higher than on regular days, with an average risk increase of 23.3%, and the risks are more concentrated. Therefore, reducing collision risks through path planning becomes more challenging. It is recommended to focus attention on areas with high taxiway occupancy during peak periods and carefully plan routes to ensure apron safety.

With the rapid expansion of China’s domestic air transport network (CATN), it is fundamental to model which factors and mechanisms impact this development. This paper investigates how the combined endogenous and exogenous factors influencing the evolution of CATN based on longitudinal data by utilizing a more all-encompassing methodology of stochastic actor based-modeling (SABM). Endogenous variables include a density effect, a betweenness effect, a transitivity closure effect, and a ‘number of distances-two’ effect. Exogenous variables incorporate airport hierarchy, a distance effect, presence or absence of low-cost carriers (LCCs) and high-speed rail (HSR). The systematic classification of Chinese airports into more than the typical two or three tiers allows the impacts of the four endogenous covariates to be revealed. Overall, the CATN has tended to evolve into a more compacted and non-concentrated network structure through the creation of non-stop routes and closed triads. The integrated inclusion of low-cost carrier and high-speed rail effects highlights the importance of market presence to the initiation of new routes at initial stages, cultivating potential demand and increasing accessibility. In addition, the construction of HSR to one primary airport within a multi-airport system can raise “shadow effects” for other airports. Our findings provide policy suggestions for airport operators in terms of developing accurate positions in the hierarchy and strengthening transfer ability.

To address the trade-off between safety levels and operational efficiency in the Bay Area, this study proposes a Multi-Stand Grouped Operations method based on deep reinforcement learning under the consideration of the safety domain. The full-process operation of aircraft within the Bay Area is analyzed to identify key operational spots. Safety domains are then established based on path conflicts arising from aircraft movements and safety conflicts caused by minimum separation distances and wake vortex effects. These domains are used to define corresponding safe operating spaces and construct an optimized operational model for the Bay Area. A multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm is employed to solve the model, deriving an optimized stand allocation plan and Multi-Stand Grouped Operations strategy. To evaluate the effectiveness of the optimization, real flight data from the northwest Bay Area of Terminal 2 at Guangzhou Baiyun Airport are used for validation. Compared to the original stand allocation scheme, the optimized stand allocation and Multi-Stand Grouped Operations strategy reduce aircraft delay times by 62.45%, demonstrating that the proposed model effectively enhances operational efficiency in the Bay Area.

To enhance the accuracy and real-time capability of estimated in-block time (EIBT) predictions at airports, this study proposes a two-stage integrated prediction method. By extending the prediction time window for arrival times, this method systematically models and analyzes the integrated arrival time, thereby achieving precise EIBT predictions. This study divides the arrival process into the approach flight stage and the taxi-in stage, constructing predictive models for each and identifying key influencing factors. Additionally, copula entropy is employed to optimize feature selection. Based on operational data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport, a LightGBM-based prediction model was developed and validated across multiple datasets. The results demonstrate that the two-stage integrated forecasting method significantly outperforms single-stage modeling, with the best model achieving a prediction accuracy of 87.11% within a ±5 min error margin. Furthermore, this study validates the effectiveness of copula entropy in enhancing model prediction performance. This research provides theoretical support and practical references for improving the real-time predictive capabilities of airport collaborative decision-making systems, as well as a technical pathway for integrated air-surface management research at multi-runway airports.

For aircraft departure, which is a process of multi-resource coordination, strict time limitations, and complex condition constraints, the optimization of taxi-out time prediction is critical for enhancing airport surface operational efficiency, optimizing runway slot utilization, and reducing aircraft ground delay and fuel consumption. By combining aircraft taxi path and network traffic flow features, a refined airport road-level transport network model is constructed to accurately characterize the taxi path topology and node-edge attributes. On this basis, two new micro-features are introduced: estimated taxi time and the number of handovers. Experimental results show that after the introduction of the micro-features, the prediction accuracy of the taxi-out time prediction model within the error of 1 min increases from 49.29% to 54.41%, and the prediction accuracy within the error of 5 min reaches 99.42%. This method effectively addresses the limitations of traditional models that focus solely on the overall taxiing process while neglecting microscopic airfield network dynamics and time consumption during control handover procedures. The method can be integrated into the Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM) system to provide minute-level support for departure taxi-out time prediction, thereby providing a more precise and operationally aligned temporal benchmark for intelligent apron operations scheduling, aircraft sequencing optimization, and other collaborative decision making processes.