This study assesses the usability of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulated soil moisture for landslide monitoring in the Emilia Romagna region, northern Italy, during the 10-year period between 2006 and 2015. In particular, three advanced land surface model (LSM) schemes (i.e. Noah, Noah-MP, and CLM4) integrated with the WRF are used to provide detailed multi-layer soil moisture information. Through the temporal evaluation with the single-point in situ soil moisture observations, Noah-MP is the only scheme that is able to simulate the large soil drying phenomenon close to the observations during the dry season, and it also has the highest correlation coefficient and the lowest RMSE at most soil layers. It is also demonstrated that a single soil moisture sensor located in a plain area has a high correlation with a significant proportion of the study area (even in the mountainous region 141 km away, based on the WRF-simulated spatial soil moisture information). The evaluation of the WRF rainfall estimation shows there is no distinct difference among the three LSMs, and their performances are in line with a published study for the central USA. Each simulated soil moisture product from the three LSM schemes is then used to build a landslide prediction model, and within each model, 17 different exceedance probability levels from 1 % to 50 % are adopted to determine the optimal threshold scenario (in total there are 612 scenarios). Slope degree information is also used to separate the study region into different groups. The threshold evaluation performance is based on the landslide forecasting accuracy using 45 selected rainfall events between 2014 and 2015. Contingency tables, statistical indicators, and receiver operating characteristic analysis for different threshold scenarios are explored. The results have shown that, for landslide monitoring, Noah-MP at the surface soil layer with 30 % exceedance probability provides the best landslide monitoring performance, with its hit rate at 0.769 and its false alarm rate at 0.289.

Soil moisture is important in the triggering of many types of landslides. However, in situ soil moisture data are rarely available in hazardous zones. The advanced remote sensing technology could provide useful soil moisture information. In this study, an assessment has been carried out between the latest version of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative soil moisture product and the landslide events in a northern Italian region in the 14-year period 2002–2015. A clear correlation has been found between the satellite soil moisture and the landslide events, as over four-fifths of events had soil wetness conditions above the 50% regional soil moisture line. Attempts have also been made to explore the soil moisture thresholds for landslide occurrences under different environmental conditions (land cover, soil type, and slope). The results showed slope distribution could provide a rather distinct separation of the soil moisture thresholds, with thresholds becoming smaller for steeper areas, indicating dryer soil condition could trigger landslides at hilly areas than in plain areas. The thresholds validation procedure is then carried out. Forty five rainfall events between 2014 and 2015 are used as test cases. Contingency tables, statistical indicators, and receiver operating characteristic analysis for thresholds under different exceedance probabilities (1%–50%) are explored. The results have shown that the thresholds using 30% exceedance probability provide the best performance with the hitting rate at 0.92 and the false alarm at 0.50. We expect this study can provide useful information for adopting the remotely sensed soil moisture in the landslide early warnings.

A remarkable decline in the number of rain gauges is being faced in many areas of the world, as a compromise to the expensive cost of operating and maintaining rain gauges. The question of how to effectively deploy new or remove current rain gauges in order to create optimal rainfall information is becoming more and more important. On the other hand, larger-scaled, remotely sensed rainfall measurements, although poorer quality compared with traditional rain gauge rainfall measurements, provide an insight into the local storm characteristics, which are sought by traditional methods for designing a rain gauge network. Based on these facts, this study proposes a new methodology for rain gauge network design using remotely sensed rainfall datasets that aims to explore how many gauges are essential and where they should be placed. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to analyze the redundancy of the radar grid network and to determine the number of rain gauges while the potential locations are determined by cluster analysis (CA) selection. The proposed methodology has been performed on 373 different storm events measured by a weather radar grid network and compared against an existing dense rain gauge network in southwestern England. Because of the simple structure, the proposed scheme could be easily implemented in other study areas. This study provides a new insight into rain gauge network design that is also a preliminary attempt to use remotely sensed data to solve the traditional rain gauge problems.

In many countries, industrialization has led to rapid urbanization. Increased frequency of urban flooding is one consequence of the expansion of urban areas which can seriously affect the productivity and livelihoods of urban residents. Therefore, it is of vital importance to study the effects of rainfall and urban flooding on traffic congestion and driver behavior. In this study, a comprehensive method to analyze the influence of urban flooding on traffic congestion was developed. First, a flood simulation was conducted to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of flooding based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and TELAMAC-2D. Second, an agent-based model (ABM) was used to simulate driver behavior during a period of urban flooding, and a car-following model was established. Finally, in order to study the mechanisms behind how urban flooding affects traffic congestion, the impact of flooding on urban traffic was investigated based on a case study of the urban area of Lishui, China, covering an area of 4.4 km². It was found that for most events, two-hour rainfall has a certain impact on traffic congestion over a five-hour period, with the greatest impact during the hour following the cessation of the rain. Furthermore, the effects of rainfall with 10- and 20-year return periods were found to be similar and small, whereas the effects with a 50-year return period were obvious. Based on a combined analysis of hydrology and transportation, the proposed methods and conclusions could help to reduce traffic congestion during flood seasons, to facilitate early warning and risk management of urban flooding, and to assist users in making informed decisions regarding travel.