This study—based on systematic testing of 30 different wheat crop models against field experiments—shows that many wheat models simulate yields well, but with reduced accuracy at higher temperatures. Extrapolation of the model ensemble response indicates that global wheat production will fall by 6% for each 1 °C increase in temperature. Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

Wheat is fundamental to human civilization and has played an outstanding role in feeding a hungry world and improving global food security. The crop contributes about 20 % of the total dietary calories and proteins worldwide. Food demand in the developing regions is growing by 1 % annually and varies from 170 kg in Central Asia to 27 kg in East and South Africa. The developing regions (including China and Central Asia) account for roughly 53 % of the total harvested area and 50 % of the production. Unprecedented productivity growth from the Green Revolution (GR) since the 1960s dramatically transformed world wheat production, benefitting both producers and consumers through low production costs and low food prices. Modern wheat varieties were adopted more rapidly than any other technological innovation in the history of agriculture, recently reaching about 90 % of the area in developing regions. One of the key challenges today is to replace these varieties with new ones for better sustainability. While the GR “spared” essential ecosystems from conversion to agriculture, it also generated its own environmental problems. Also productivity increase is now slow or static. Achieving the productivity gains needed to ensure food security will therefore require more than a repeat performance of the GR of the past. Future demand will need to be achieved through sustainable intensification that combines better crop resistance to diseases and pests, adaptation to warmer climates, and reduced use of water, fertilizer, labor and fuel. Meeting these challenges will require concerted efforts in research and innovation to develop and deploy viable solutions. Substantive investment will be required to realize sustainable productivity growth through better technologies and policy and institutional innovations that facilitate farmer adoption and adaptation. The enduring lessons from the GR and the recent efforts for sustainable intensification of cereal systems in South Asia and other regions provide useful insights for the future.

Domesticated crops experience strong human-mediated selection aimed at developing high-yielding varieties adapted to local conditions. To detect regions of the wheat genome subject to selection during improvement, we developed a high-throughput array to interrogate 9,000 gene-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in a worldwide sample of 2,994 accessions of hexaploid wheat including landraces and modern cultivars. Using a SNP-based diversity map we characterized the impact of crop improvement on genomic and geographic patterns of genetic diversity. We found evidence of a small population bottleneck and extensive use of ancestral variation often traceable to founders of cultivars from diverse geographic regions. Analyzing genetic differentiation among populations and the extent of haplotype sharing, we identified allelic variants subjected to selection during improvement. Selective sweeps were found around genes involved in the regulation of flowering time and phenology. An introgression of a wild relative-derived gene conferring resistance to a fungal pathogen was detected by haplotype-based analysis. Comparing selective sweeps identified in different populations, we show that selection likely acts on distinct targets or multiple functionally equivalent alleles in different portions of the geographic range of wheat. The majority of the selected alleles were present at low frequency in local populations, suggesting either weak selection pressure or temporal variation in the targets of directional selection during breeding probably associated with changing agricultural practices or environmental conditions. The developed SNP chip and map of genetic variation provide a resource for advancing wheat breeding and supporting future population genomic and genome-wide association studies in wheat.

Drought is the main abiotic constraint on cereal yield. Analysing physiological determinants of yield responses to water may help in breeding for higher yield and stability under drought conditions. The traits to select (either for stress escape, avoidance or tolerance) and the framework where breeding for drought stress is addressed will depend on the level and timing of stress in the targeted area. If the stress is severe, breeding under stress‐free conditions may be unsuccessful and traits that confer survival may become a priority. However, selecting for yield itself under stress‐alleviated conditions appears to produce superior cultivars, not only for optimum environments, but also for those characterized by frequent mild and moderate stress conditions. This implies that broad avoidance/tolerance to mild–moderate stresses is given by constitutive traits also expressed under stress‐free conditions. In this paper, we focus on physiological traits that contribute to improved productivity under mild–moderate drought. Increased crop performance may be achieved through improvements in water use, water‐use efficiency and harvest index. The first factor is relevant when soil water remains available at maturity or when deep‐rooted genotypes access water in the soil profile that is not normally available; the two latter conditions become more important when all available water is exhausted by the end of the crop cycle. Independent of the mechanism operating, a canopy able to use more water than another would have more open stomata and therefore higher canopy temperature depression, and ¹³C discrimination (Δ¹³C) in plant matter. The same traits would also seem to be relevant when breeding for hot, irrigated environments. Where additional water is not available to the crop, higher water‐use efficiency (WUE) appears to be an alternative strategy to improve crop performance. In this context Δ¹³C constitutes a simple but reliable measure of WUE. However, in contrast to lines performing better because of increased access to water, lines producing greater biomass due to superior WUE will have lower Δ¹³C values. WUE may be modified not only through a decrease in stomatal conductance, but also through an increase in photosynthetic capacity. Harvest index is strongly reduced by terminal drought (i.e. drought during grain filling). Thus, phenological traits increasing the relative amount of water used during grain filling, or adjusting the crop cycle to the seasonal pattern of rainfall may be useful. Augmenting the contribution of carbohydrate reserves accumulated during vegetative growth to grain filling may also be worthwhile in harsh environments. Alternatively, extending the duration of stem elongation without changing the timing of anthesis would increase the number of grains per spike and the harvest index without changing the amount of water utilized by the crop.

Population growth, arable land and fresh water limits, and climate change have profound implications for the ability of agriculture to meet this century’s demands for food, feed, fiber, and fuel while reducing the environmental impact of their production. Success depends on the acceptance and use of contemporary molecular techniques, as well as the increasing development of farming systems that use saline water and integrate nutrient flows.

Past increases in yield potential of wheat have largely resulted from improvements in harvest index rather than increased biomass. Further large increases in harvest index are unlikely, but an opportunity exists for increasing productive biomass and harvestable grain. Photosynthetic capacity and efficiency are bottlenecks to raising productivity and there is strong evidence that increasing photosynthesis will increase crop yields provided that other constraints do not become limiting. Even small increases in the rate of net photosynthesis can translate into large increases in biomass and hence yield, since carbon assimilation is integrated over the entire growing season and crop canopy. This review discusses the strategies to increase photosynthesis that are being proposed by the wheat yield consortium in order to increase wheat yields. These include: selection for photosynthetic capacity and efficiency, increasing ear photosynthesis, optimizing canopy photosynthesis, introducing chloroplast CO₂ pumps, increasing RuBP regeneration, improving the thermal stability of Rubisco activase, and replacing wheat Rubisco with that from other species with different kinetic properties.