Drought is the main abiotic constraint on cereal yield. Analysing physiological determinants of yield responses to water may help in breeding for higher yield and stability under drought conditions. The traits to select (either for stress escape, avoidance or tolerance) and the framework where breeding for drought stress is addressed will depend on the level and timing of stress in the targeted area. If the stress is severe, breeding under stress‐free conditions may be unsuccessful and traits that confer survival may become a priority. However, selecting for yield itself under stress‐alleviated conditions appears to produce superior cultivars, not only for optimum environments, but also for those characterized by frequent mild and moderate stress conditions. This implies that broad avoidance/tolerance to mild–moderate stresses is given by constitutive traits also expressed under stress‐free conditions. In this paper, we focus on physiological traits that contribute to improved productivity under mild–moderate drought. Increased crop performance may be achieved through improvements in water use, water‐use efficiency and harvest index. The first factor is relevant when soil water remains available at maturity or when deep‐rooted genotypes access water in the soil profile that is not normally available; the two latter conditions become more important when all available water is exhausted by the end of the crop cycle. Independent of the mechanism operating, a canopy able to use more water than another would have more open stomata and therefore higher canopy temperature depression, and ¹³C discrimination (Δ¹³C) in plant matter. The same traits would also seem to be relevant when breeding for hot, irrigated environments. Where additional water is not available to the crop, higher water‐use efficiency (WUE) appears to be an alternative strategy to improve crop performance. In this context Δ¹³C constitutes a simple but reliable measure of WUE. However, in contrast to lines performing better because of increased access to water, lines producing greater biomass due to superior WUE will have lower Δ¹³C values. WUE may be modified not only through a decrease in stomatal conductance, but also through an increase in photosynthetic capacity. Harvest index is strongly reduced by terminal drought (i.e. drought during grain filling). Thus, phenological traits increasing the relative amount of water used during grain filling, or adjusting the crop cycle to the seasonal pattern of rainfall may be useful. Augmenting the contribution of carbohydrate reserves accumulated during vegetative growth to grain filling may also be worthwhile in harsh environments. Alternatively, extending the duration of stem elongation without changing the timing of anthesis would increase the number of grains per spike and the harvest index without changing the amount of water utilized by the crop.

The need to accelerate breeding for increased yield potential and better adaptation to drought and other abiotic stresses is an issue of increasing urgency. As the population continues to grow rapidly, the pressure on resources (mainly untouched land and water) is also increasing, and potential climate change poses further challenges. We discuss ways to improve the efficiency of crop breeding through a better physiological understanding by both conventional and molecular methods. Thus the review highlights the physiological basis of crop yield and its response to stresses, with special emphasis on drought. This is not just because physiology forms the basis of proper phenotyping, one of the pillars of breeding, but because a full understanding of physiology is also needed, for example, to design the traits targeted by molecular breeding approaches such as marker-assisted selection (MAS) or plant transformation or the way these traits are evaluated. Most of the information in this review deals with cereals, since they include the world's main crops, however, examples from other crops are also included. Topics covered by the review include the conceptual framework for identifying secondary traits associated with yield potential and stress adaptation, and how to measure these secondary traits in practice. The second part of the review deals with the real role of molecular breeding for complex traits from a physiological perspective. This part examines current developments in MAS and quantitative trait loci (QTL) detection as well as plant transformation. Emphasis is placed on the current limitations of these molecular approaches to improving stress adaptation and yield potential. The essay ends by presenting some ideas regarding future avenues for crop breeding given the current and possible future challenges, and on a multidisciplinary approach where physiological knowledge and proper phenotyping play a major role.

Climate change has generated unpredictability in the timing and amount of rain, as well as extreme heat and cold spells that have affected grain yields worldwide and threaten food security. Sources of specific adaptation related to drought and heat, as well as associated breeding of genetic traits, will contribute to maintaining grain yields in dry and warm years. Increased crop photosynthesis and biomass have been achieved particularly through disease resistance and healthy leaves. Similarly, sources of drought and heat adaptation through extended photosynthesis and increased biomass would also greatly benefit crop improvement. Wheat landraces have been cultivated for thousands of years under the most extreme environmental conditions. They have also been cultivated in lower input farming systems for which adaptation traits, particularly those that increase the duration of photosynthesis, have been conserved. Landraces are a valuable source of genetic diversity and specific adaptation to local environmental conditions according to their place of origin. Evidence supports the hypothesis that landraces can provide sources of increased biomass and thousand kernel weight, both important traits for adaptation to tolerate drought and heat. Evaluation of wheat landraces stored in gene banks with highly beneficial untapped diversity and sources of stress adaptation, once characterized, should also be used for wheat improvement. Unified development of databases and promotion of data sharing among physiologists, pathologists, wheat quality scientists, national programmes, and breeders will greatly benefit wheat improvement for adaptation to climate change worldwide.

Grain yield is a major goal for the improvement of durum wheat, particularly in drought-prone areas. In this study, the genetic basis of grain yield (GY), heading date (HD), and plant height (PH) was investigated in a durum wheat population of 249 recombinant inbred lines evaluated in 16 environments (10 rainfed and 6 irrigated) characterized by a broad range of water availability and GY (from 5.6 to 58.8 q ha−1). Among the 16 quantitative trait loci (QTL) that affected GY, two major QTL on chromosomes 2BL and 3BS showed significant effects in 8 and 7 environments, with R2 values of 21.5 and 13.8% (mean data of all 16 environments), respectively. In both cases, extensive overlap was observed between the LOD profiles of GY and PH, but not with those for HD. QTL specific for PH were identified on chromosomes 1BS, 3AL, and 7AS. Additionally, three major QTL for HD on chromosomes 2AS, 2BL, and 7BS showed limited or no effects on GY. For both PH and GY, notable epistasis between the chromosome 2BL and 3BS QTL was detected across several environments.

Association mapping was used to dissect the genetic basis of drought-adaptive traits and grain yield (GY) in a collection of 189 elite durum wheat accessions evaluated in 15 environments highly different for water availability during the crop cycle (from 146 to 711 mm) and GY (from 9.9 to 67.3 q ha⁻¹). For highly heritable traits (e.g. heading date, kernel weight, etc.) several significant experiment-wise marker-trait associations were detected across five or more (up to 13 for kernel weight) environments, with R² values ranging from ca. 5 to 10%. As to GY, significant associations (R² from 2.5 to 4.2%) were mostly detected in one environment only (56 markers), while decreasing rapidly from two to five environments (from 20 to three markers, respectively) and with only one marker (Xbarc197 on chr. 5A) found significant in six environments (ranging from low- to high-yielding). These results are probably due to the complex genetic basis of GY and its interaction with environmental conditions. The number of markers significantly affecting GY decreased considerably under drought conditions, suggesting a limited effectiveness of association mapping to identify loci for GY under low-moisture conditions, most likely because different genotypes can attain similar phenotypes via different morpho-physiological traits and corresponding gene networks. Our study confirmed the role of major loci for phenology previously described in biparental mapping populations, highlighted a novel set of loci for drought-adaptive traits, and provided information on the agronomic value of the alleles at such loci across a broad range of soil moisture conditions.