Drought, a climate-related disaster impacting a variety of sectors, poses challenges for millions of people in South Asia. Accurate and complete drought information with a proper monitoring system is very important in revealing the complex nature of drought and its associated factors. In this regard, deep learning is a very promising approach for delineating the non-linear characteristics of drought factors. Therefore, this study aims to monitor drought by employing a deep learning approach with remote sensing data over South Asia from 2001–2016. We considered the precipitation, vegetation, and soil factors for the deep forwarded neural network (DFNN) as model input parameters. The study evaluated agricultural drought using the soil moisture deficit index (SMDI) as a response variable during three crop phenology stages. For a better comparison of deep learning model performance, we adopted two machine learning models, distributed random forest (DRF) and gradient boosting machine (GBM). Results show that the DFNN model outperformed the other two models for SMDI prediction. Furthermore, the results indicated that DFNN captured the drought pattern with high spatial variability across three penology stages. Additionally, the DFNN model showed good stability with its cross-validated data in the training phase, and the estimated SMDI had high correlation coefficient R2 ranges from 0.57~0.90, 0.52~0.94, and 0.49~0.82 during the start of the season (SOS), length of the season (LOS), and end of the season (EOS) respectively. The comparison between inter-annual variability of estimated SMDI and in-situ SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) showed that the estimated SMDI was almost similar to in-situ SPEI. The DFNN model provides comprehensive drought information by producing a consistent spatial distribution of SMDI which establishes the applicability of the DFNN model for drought monitoring.
1 March 2019 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Urbanization is an increasing phenomenon around the world, causing many adverse effects in urban areas. Urban heat island is are of the most well-known phenomena. In the present study, surface urban heat islands (SUHI) were studied for seven megacities of the South Asian countries from 2000–2019. The urban thermal environment and relationship between land surface temperature (LST), land use landcover (LULC) and vegetation were examined. The connection was explored with remote-sensing indices such as urban thermal field variance (UTFVI), surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) and normal difference vegetation index (NDVI). LULC maps are classified using a CART machine learning classifier, and an accuracy table was generated. The LULC change matrix shows that the vegetated areas of all the cities decreased with an increase in the urban areas during the 20 years. The average LST in the rural areas is increasing compared to the urban core, and the difference is in the range of 1–2 (°C). The SUHII linear trend is increasing in Delhi, Karachi, Kathmandu, and Thimphu, while decreasing in Colombo, Dhaka, and Kabul from 2000–2019. UTFVI has shown the poor ecological conditions in all urban buffers due to high LST and urban infrastructures. In addition, a strong negative correlation between LST and NDVI can be seen in a range of −0.1 to −0.6.
Drought is a very complex natural hazard and has a negative impact on the global ecosystem as a whole. Recently Bangladesh has been experiencing by different degree of dryness as a consequence of high climate variability, affecting the crop production to a great extent in the last couple of decades. In this context, the present study was made an effort to assess and analyse drought characteristics based on two drought indices, i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and model agricultural drought risk with Fast-and-frugal decision tree (FFT) model in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2016. We identified drought occurrence and its dynamics with three-time scale, i.e., SPI3J (November-January), SPI3A (February-April) and SPI6A (November-April), and three rice-growing seasons, i.e., Aus (March-July), Aman (June-November), and Boro (November-May) from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data. The results demonstrate that TRMM had good consistency with rain gauge measurement compared to CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) and PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record) data to derive SPI3J, SPI3A and SPI6A. Overall results confirmed that more drought frequency observed in SPI6A than SPI3J and SPI3A time scale, representing moderate to severe drought throughout the country. Regarding agricultural drought resulting from VCI demonstrated Boro rice-growing season as more vulnerable crop growing season affected by severe to extreme drought event. Validation results of VCI exhibited a high correlation with rice yield data than in-situ soil moisture data. Results of the FFT model show that out of ten predictor variables SPI3J and SPI6A caused agricultural drought with SPI value less than -1.08 and -1.21 respectively. Additionally, the model characterized SPI3J and SPI6A as the most critical driving factors with the highest balanced accuracy triggering agricultural drought risk in Bangladesh.
Drought has devastating impacts on agriculture and other ecosystems, and its occurrence is expected to increase in the future. However, its spatiotemporal impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) in Mongolia have remained uncertain. Hence, this paper focuses on the impact of drought on NPP in Mongolia. The drought events in Mongolia during 2003–2018 were identified using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS)-derived NPP was computed to assess changes in NPP during the 16 years, and the impacts of drought on the NPP of Mongolian terrestrial ecosystems was quantitatively analyzed. The results showed a slightly increasing trend of the growing season NPP during 2003–2018. However, a decreasing trend of NPP was observed during the six major drought events. A total of 60.55–87.75% of land in the entire country experienced drought, leading to a 75% drop in NPP. More specifically, NPP decline was prominent in severe drought areas than in mild and moderate drought areas. Moreover, this study revealed that drought had mostly affected the sparse vegetation NPP. In contrast, forest and shrubland were the least affected vegetation types.