The literature on atmospheric particulate matter (PM), or atmospheric aerosol, has increased enormously over the last 2 decades and amounts now to some 1500–2000 papers per year in the refereed literature. This is in part due to the enormous advances in measurement technologies, which have allowed for an increasingly accurate understanding of the chemical composition and of the physical properties of atmospheric particles and of their processes in the atmosphere. The growing scientific interest in atmospheric aerosol particles is due to their high importance for environmental policy. In fact, particulate matter constitutes one of the most challenging problems both for air quality and for climate change policies. In this context, this paper reviews the most recent results within the atmospheric aerosol sciences and the policy needs, which have driven much of the increase in monitoring and mechanistic research over the last 2 decades. The synthesis reveals many new processes and developments in the science underpinning climate–aerosol interactions and effects of PM on human health and the environment. However, while airborne particulate matter is responsible for globally important influences on premature human mortality, we still do not know the relative importance of the different chemical components of PM for these effects. Likewise, the magnitude of the overall effects of PM on climate remains highly uncertain. Despite the uncertainty there are many things that could be done to mitigate local and global problems of atmospheric PM. Recent analyses have shown that reducing black carbon (BC) emissions, using known control measures, would reduce global warming and delay the time when anthropogenic effects on global temperature would exceed 2 °C. Likewise, cost-effective control measures on ammonia, an important agricultural precursor gas for secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA), would reduce regional eutrophication and PM concentrations in large areas of Europe, China and the USA. Thus, there is much that could be done to reduce the effects of atmospheric PM on the climate and the health of the environment and the human population. A prioritized list of actions to mitigate the full range of effects of PM is currently undeliverable due to shortcomings in the knowledge of aerosol science; among the shortcomings, the roles of PM in global climate and the relative roles of different PM precursor sources and their response to climate and land use change over the remaining decades of this century are prominent. In any case, the evidence from this paper strongly advocates for an integrated approach to air quality and climate policies.

The development and application of chemistry transport models has a long tradition. Within the Netherlands the LOTOS–EUROS model has been developed by a consortium of institutes, after combining its independently developed predecessors in 2005. Recently, version 2.0 of the model was released as an open-source version. This paper presents the curriculum vitae of the model system, describing the model's history, model philosophy, basic features and a validation with EMEP stations for the new benchmark year 2012, and presents cases with the model's most recent and key developments. By setting the model developments in context and providing an outlook for directions for further development, the paper goes beyond the common model description.With an origin in ozone and sulfur modelling for the models LOTOS and EUROS, the application areas were gradually extended with persistent organic pollutants, reactive nitrogen, and primary and secondary particulate matter. After the combination of the models to LOTOS–EUROS in 2005, the model was further developed to include new source parametrizations (e.g. road resuspension, desert dust, wildfires), applied for operational smog forecasts in the Netherlands and Europe, and has been used for emission scenarios, source apportionment, and long-term hindcast and climate change scenarios. LOTOS–EUROS has been a front-runner in data assimilation of ground-based and satellite observations and has participated in many model intercomparison studies. The model is no longer confined to applications over Europe but is also applied to other regions of the world, e.g. China. The increasing interaction with emission experts has also contributed to the improvement of the model's performance. The philosophy for model development has always been to use knowledge that is state of the art and proven, to keep a good balance in the level of detail of process description and accuracy of input and output, and to keep a good record on the effect of model changes using benchmarking and validation. The performance of v2.0 with respect to EMEP observations is good, with spatial correlations around 0.8 or higher for concentrations and wet deposition. Temporal correlations are around 0.5 or higher. Recent innovative applications include source apportionment and data assimilation, particle number modelling, and energy transition scenarios including corresponding land use changes as well as Saharan dust forecasting. Future developments would enable more flexibility with respect to model horizontal and vertical resolution and further detailing of model input data. This includes the use of different sources of land use characterization (roughness length and vegetation), detailing of emissions in space and time, and efficient coupling to meteorology from different meteorological models.

Ammonia (NH₃) is an essential reactive nitrogen species in the biosphere and through its use in agriculture in the form of fertilizer (important for sustaining humankind). The current emission levels, however, are up to 4 times higher than in the previous century and continue to grow with uncertain consequences to human health and the environment. While NH₃ at its current levels is a hazard to environmental and human health, the atmospheric budget is still highly uncertain, which is a product of an overall lack of measurements. The capability to measure NH₃ with satellites has opened up new ways to study the atmospheric NH₃ budget. In this study, we present the first estimates of NH₃ emissions, lifetimes and plume widths from large ($>\sim \mathrm{5}$ kt yr⁻¹) agricultural and industrial point sources from Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) satellite observations across the globe with a consistent methodology. The same methodology is also applied to the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) (A and B) satellite observations, and we show that the satellites typically provide comparable results that are within the uncertainty of the estimates. The computed NH₃ lifetime for large point sources is on average 2.35±1.16 h. For the 249 sources with emission levels detectable by the CrIS satellite, there are currently 55 locations missing (or underestimated by more than an order of magnitude) from the current Hemispheric Transport Atmospheric Pollution version 2 (HTAPv2) emission inventory and only 72 locations with emissions within a factor of 2 compared to the inventories. The CrIS emission estimates give a total of 5622 kt yr⁻¹, for the sources analyzed in this study, which is around a factor of ∼2.5 higher than the emissions reported in HTAPv2. Furthermore, the study shows that it is possible to accurately detect short- and long-term changes in emissions, demonstrating the possibility of using satellite-observed NH₃ to constrain emission inventories.

Particulate matter (PM) is a class of malicious environmental pollutants known to be detrimental to human health. Regulatory efforts aimed at curbing PM levels in different countries often require high resolution space–time maps that can identify red-flag regions exceeding statutory concentration limits. Continuous spatio-temporal Gaussian Process (GP) models can deliver maps depicting predicted PM levels and quantify predictive uncertainty. However, GP-based approaches are usually thwarted by computational challenges posed by large datasets. We construct a novel class of scalable Dynamic Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (DNNGP) models that can provide a sparse approximation to any spatio-temporal GP (e.g., with nonseparable covariance structures). The DNNGP we develop here can be used as a sparsity-inducing prior for spatio-temporal random effects in any Bayesian hierarchical model to deliver full posterior inference. Storage and memory requirements for a DNNGP model are linear in the size of the dataset, thereby delivering massive scalability without sacrificing inferential richness. Extensive numerical studies reveal that the DNNGP provides substantially superior approximations to the underlying process than low-rank approximations. Finally, we use the DNNGP to analyze a massive air quality dataset to substantially improve predictions of PM levels across Europe in conjunction with the LOTOS-EUROS chemistry transport models (CTMs).

Presented here is the validation of the CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder) fast physical NH₃ retrieval (CFPR) column and profile measurements using ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) observations. We use the total columns and profiles from seven FTIR sites in the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) to validate the satellite data products. The overall FTIR and CrIS total columns have a positive correlation of r = 0.77 (N = 218) with very little bias (a slope of 1.02). Binning the comparisons by total column amounts, for concentrations larger than 1.0 × 10¹⁶ molecules cm⁻², i.e. ranging from moderate to polluted conditions, the relative difference is on average ∼ 0–5 % with a standard deviation of 25–50 %, which is comparable to the estimated retrieval uncertainties in both CrIS and the FTIR. For the smallest total column range (< 1.0 × 10¹⁶ molecules cm⁻²) where there are a large number of observations at or near the CrIS noise level (detection limit) the absolute differences between CrIS and the FTIR total columns show a slight positive column bias. The CrIS and FTIR profile comparison differences are mostly within the range of the single-level retrieved profile values from estimated retrieval uncertainties, showing average differences in the range of ∼ 20 to 40 %. The CrIS retrievals typically show good vertical sensitivity down into the boundary layer which typically peaks at ∼ 850 hPa (∼ 1.5 km). At this level the median absolute difference is 0.87 (std = ±0.08) ppb, corresponding to a median relative difference of 39 % (std = ±2 %). Most of the absolute and relative profile comparison differences are in the range of the estimated retrieval uncertainties. At the surface, where CrIS typically has lower sensitivity, it tends to overestimate in low-concentration conditions and underestimate in higher atmospheric concentration conditions.

Global distributions of atmospheric ammonia (NH₃) measured with satellite instruments such as the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) contain valuable information on NH₃ concentrations and variability in regions not yet covered by ground-based instruments. Due to their large spatial coverage and (bi-)daily overpasses, the satellite observations have the potential to increase our knowledge of the distribution of NH₃ emissions and associated seasonal cycles. However the observations remain poorly validated, with only a handful of available studies often using only surface measurements without any vertical information. In this study, we present the first validation of the IASI-NH₃ product using ground-based Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) observations. Using a recently developed consistent retrieval strategy, NH₃ concentration profiles have been retrieved using observations from nine Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) stations around the world between 2008 and 2015. We demonstrate the importance of strict spatio-temporal collocation criteria for the comparison. Large differences in the regression results are observed for changing intervals of spatial criteria, mostly due to terrain characteristics and the short lifetime of NH₃ in the atmosphere. The seasonal variations of both datasets are consistent for most sites. Correlations are found to be high at sites in areas with considerable NH₃ levels, whereas correlations are lower at sites with low atmospheric NH₃ levels close to the detection limit of the IASI instrument. A combination of the observations from all sites (N_obs = 547) give a mean relative difference of −32.4 ± (56.3) %, a correlation r of 0.8 with a slope of 0.73. These results give an improved estimate of the IASI-NH3 product performance compared to the previous upper-bound estimates (−50 to +100 %).