Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

Studies on energy security in the context of relations between European Union (EU) and Russia tend to focus on cases, with an open conflict related to supply, such as “hard” energy weapons, or on only one fuel, often natural gas. However, there is a need to understand the long-term impacts that energy relations have politically, economically and physically, and their linkages between resilience, sustainability and security. We analyse the Finnish-Russian energy relations as a case study, as they are characterised by a non-conflictual relationship. To assess this complex relationship, we apply the interdependence framework to analyse both the energy systems and energy strategies of Finland and Russia, and the energy security issues related to the notable import dependence on one supplier. Moreover, we analyse the plausible development of the energy trade between the countries in three different energy policy scenarios until 2040. The findings of the article shed light on how the trends in energy markets, climate change mitigation and broader societal and political trends could influence Russia’s energy trade relations with countries, such as Finland. Our analysis shows that Finland’s dependence on primary energy imports does not pose an acute energy security threat in terms of sheer supply, and the dependence is unlikely to worsen in the future. However, due to the difficulty in anticipating societal, political, and economic trends, there are possible developments that could affect Finland.

European electricity prices soared to unusually high levels during 2021, which exposed vulnerabilities in the economy and led to concerns about affordability. The concerns were further exacerbated in 2022, as Europe strove to cut its dependence on the Russian fossil fuel supply, as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This article explores the causes of the price increases in 2021 and assesses their likely future development by using Finland as a case example. We address a gap in the existing energy literature by elucidating the origins and future outlooks of price spikes in highly interconnected electricity markets. Based on an interdisciplinary combination of legal and qualitative data analysis, this study approaches its key objective in three stages. First, we describe the European market and its regulatory design to demonstrate the legislative framework and preconditions within which the market is expected to operate and how these rules connect to guaranteeing the affordability of electricity. Second, we explore how these preconditions functioned in practice in 2021 by analysing the wider macro-level trends that resulted in the elevated prices throughout Europe, particularly in Finland. Third, we assess the impacts of these trends on Finnish electricity price development. Based on these descriptive and predictive analyses, we show that the European market design fundamentally necessitates price variation to ensure market-based investment and energy security in the long-term. Our analysis demonstrates that the high energy prices in 2021 were, in general, the result of various weather-related, economic, and political factors. Moreover, our findings indicate that the dynamics of price formation within a Member State are complex, and in the case of Finland, strongly impacted by neighbouring markets.