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Energy security is one of the critical priorities of energy policy in the European Union and particularly in the Baltic region that is currently transforming itself from an isolated energy island to a highly interconnected area. In this paper, a comprehensive analysis of energy security in Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania in the context of the energy transition is presented. The paper explores regional implications of two paths of carbon price (gradual and delayed carbon price increase). The analysis is performed by linking an energy system optimisation model with a probabilistic model of energy security. This modelling suite is used to assess the resilience of the planned energy system to possible disruptions. The results demonstrate that carbon price paths have a modest impact on energy security in Baltic countries if energy security measures are implemented in an optimal way. The research is based on the case study conducted in the framework of the European Union's Horizon 2020 project REEEM.
Arvydas Galinis; Linas Martišauskas; Jaakko Jääskeläinen; Ville Olkkonen; Sanna Syri; Georgios Avgerinopoulos; Vidas Lekavičius. Implications of carbon price paths on energy security in four Baltic region countries. Energy Strategy Reviews 2020, 30, 100509 .
AMA StyleArvydas Galinis, Linas Martišauskas, Jaakko Jääskeläinen, Ville Olkkonen, Sanna Syri, Georgios Avgerinopoulos, Vidas Lekavičius. Implications of carbon price paths on energy security in four Baltic region countries. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2020; 30 ():100509.
Chicago/Turabian StyleArvydas Galinis; Linas Martišauskas; Jaakko Jääskeläinen; Ville Olkkonen; Sanna Syri; Georgios Avgerinopoulos; Vidas Lekavičius. 2020. "Implications of carbon price paths on energy security in four Baltic region countries." Energy Strategy Reviews 30, no. : 100509.
Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.
Noora Veijalainen; Lauri Ahopelto; Mika Marttunen; Jaakko Jääskeläinen; Ritva Britschgi; Mirjam Orvomaa; Antti Belinskij; Marko Keskinen. Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts. Sustainability 2019, 11, 2450 .
AMA StyleNoora Veijalainen, Lauri Ahopelto, Mika Marttunen, Jaakko Jääskeläinen, Ritva Britschgi, Mirjam Orvomaa, Antti Belinskij, Marko Keskinen. Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (8):2450.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNoora Veijalainen; Lauri Ahopelto; Mika Marttunen; Jaakko Jääskeläinen; Ritva Britschgi; Mirjam Orvomaa; Antti Belinskij; Marko Keskinen. 2019. "Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts." Sustainability 11, no. 8: 2450.
Studies on energy security in the context of relations between European Union (EU) and Russia tend to focus on cases, with an open conflict related to supply, such as “hard” energy weapons, or on only one fuel, often natural gas. However, there is a need to understand the long-term impacts that energy relations have politically, economically and physically, and their linkages between resilience, sustainability and security. We analyse the Finnish-Russian energy relations as a case study, as they are characterised by a non-conflictual relationship. To assess this complex relationship, we apply the interdependence framework to analyse both the energy systems and energy strategies of Finland and Russia, and the energy security issues related to the notable import dependence on one supplier. Moreover, we analyse the plausible development of the energy trade between the countries in three different energy policy scenarios until 2040. The findings of the article shed light on how the trends in energy markets, climate change mitigation and broader societal and political trends could influence Russia’s energy trade relations with countries, such as Finland. Our analysis shows that Finland’s dependence on primary energy imports does not pose an acute energy security threat in terms of sheer supply, and the dependence is unlikely to worsen in the future. However, due to the difficulty in anticipating societal, political, and economic trends, there are possible developments that could affect Finland.
Jaakko Jääskeläinen; Sakari Höysniemi; Sanna Syri; Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen. Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat? Sustainability 2018, 10, 3445 .
AMA StyleJaakko Jääskeläinen, Sakari Höysniemi, Sanna Syri, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen. Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat? Sustainability. 2018; 10 (10):3445.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJaakko Jääskeläinen; Sakari Höysniemi; Sanna Syri; Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen. 2018. "Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat?" Sustainability 10, no. 10: 3445.
Finland updated its Energy and Climate Strategy in late 2016 with the aim of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, increasing energy self-sufficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Concurrently, the issue of generation adequacy has grown more topical, especially since the record-high demand peak in Finland in January 2016. This paper analyses the Finnish energy system in years 2020 and 2030 by using the EnergyPLAN simulation tool to model whether different energy policy scenarios result in a plausible generation inadequacy. Moreover, as the Nordic energy system is so heavily dependent on hydropower production, we model and analyse the impacts of a severe drought on the Finnish energy system. We simulate hydropower availability according to the weather of the worst drought of the last century (in 1939-1942) with Finnish Environment Institute's Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System and we analyse the indirect impacts via reduced availability of electricity imports based on recent realised dry periods. Moreover, we analyse the environmental impacts of hydropower production during the drought and peak demand period and the impacts of climate change on generation adequacy in Finland. The results show that the scenarios of the new Energy and Climate Strategy result in an improved generation adequacy comparing to the current situation. However, a severe drought similar to that experienced in 1940s could cause a serious energy security threat.
Jaakko Jääskeläinen; Noora Veijalainen; Sanna Syri; Mika Marttunen; Behnam Zakeri. Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system. Journal of Environmental Management 2018, 217, 542 -554.
AMA StyleJaakko Jääskeläinen, Noora Veijalainen, Sanna Syri, Mika Marttunen, Behnam Zakeri. Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system. Journal of Environmental Management. 2018; 217 ():542-554.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJaakko Jääskeläinen; Noora Veijalainen; Sanna Syri; Mika Marttunen; Behnam Zakeri. 2018. "Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system." Journal of Environmental Management 217, no. : 542-554.