The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023).

This paper presents an engineering framework for smart grid virtual power plant (VPP) day-ahead scheduling using fractional calculus-enhanced particle swarm optimization, targeting practical deployment in energy management systems. A fractional calculus-enhanced particle swarm optimization algorithm was developed and validated for day-ahead scheduling in virtual power plants using authentic market data and rigorous statistical analysis. The algorithm incorporates Grünwald–Letnikov fractional derivatives with adaptive memory into particle velocity updates, enabling trajectory-aware search that leverages historical exploration patterns. A factorial experiment across 500 independent test cases (50 dates × 10 trials) with controlled random seeds demonstrated that fractional particle swarm optimization increased mean daily profit by $205, representing a 4.1% improvement over standard particle swarm optimization. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests confirmed statistical significance (p < 0.0001, Cohen’s d = 1.08), with superior performance observed in 89.4% of cases. The factorial design identified fractional calculus as the primary performance driver, while advanced scenario generation provided no significant additional benefit. Sensitivity analysis indicated that wind generation variability was the primary predictor of performance variance, with profit difference standard deviations ranging from $34 to $325 depending on meteorological conditions, supporting the use of adaptive computational strategies. Computation required approximately two minutes per optimization on standard hardware. These findings establish fractional calculus as a credible enhancement for operational energy systems and demonstrate that the quality of optimization algorithms outweighs the complexity of forecast uncertainty modeling. The results extend fractional calculus applications from benchmark functions to practical infrastructure scheduling, with projected annual value exceeding $74,000 for a 50-megawatt system. The three-stage optimization architecture is designed for integration with standard energy management systems and SCADA platforms, offering a deployable pathway for smart grid operators.

The extreme volatility of European energy markets in 2022 has exposed the limitations of conventional forecasting models, necessitating more robust architectures capable of handling non-linear price shocks. This study proposes a novel multi-parallel hybrid forecasting framework that integrates seven heterogeneous neural networks to predict day-ahead electricity prices. The architecture employs a hierarchical approach where six parallel base models (NN1–NN6) feed into a meta-network (NN7) to generate baseline forecasts. To further enhance predictive fidelity, these results undergo a calibration stage using probabilistic error distribution analysis to produce final probability-adjusted forecasts. The model was validated using the Lithuanian electricity market during the highly volatile period of 2020–2022. Empirical results demonstrate a clear “stacking effect,” where the incremental integration of base networks consistently reduces forecasting residuals. The final probability-adjusted configuration achieved a notable nMAE of 1.57% and a sMAPE of 34.25%, significantly outperforming baseline ensemble outputs and state-of-the-art benchmarks reported in recent literature. Specifically, the probability-based refinement proved highly effective in mitigating systematic biases during nighttime and early morning hours, confirming the model’s capacity to maintain accuracy under extreme market stress.