Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v.2 (MERRA-2), Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Operational Analysis (CAMS-OA), and a high-resolution regional Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were used to evaluate natural and anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) air pollution in the Middle East (ME) during 2015–2016. Two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) retrievals – combined product Deep Blue and Deep Target (MODIS-DB&DT) and Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) – and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations as well as in situ PM measurements for 2016 were used for validation of the WRF-Chem output and both assimilation products. MERRA-2 and CAMS-OA assimilate AOD observations. WRF-Chem is a free-running model, but dust emission in WRF-Chem is tuned to fit AOD and aerosol volume size distributions obtained from AERONET. MERRA-2 was used to construct WRF-Chem initial and boundary conditions both for meteorology and chemical and aerosol species. SO₂ emissions in WRF-Chem are based on the novel OMI-HTAP SO₂ emission dataset. The correlation with the AERONET AOD is highest for MERRA-2 (0.72–0.91), MAIAC (0.63–0.96), and CAMS-OA (0.65–0.87), followed by MODIS-DB&DT (0.56–0.84) and WRF-Chem (0.43–0.85). However, CAMS-OA has a relatively high positive mean bias with respect to AERONET AOD. The spatial distributions of seasonally averaged AODs from WRF-Chem, assimilation products, and MAIAC are well correlated with MODIS-DB&DT AOD product. MAIAC has the highest correlation (R=0.8), followed by MERRA-2 (R=0.66), CAMS-OA (R=0.65), and WRF-Chem (R=0.61). WRF-Chem, MERRA-2, and MAIAC underestimate and CAMS-OA overestimates MODIS-DB&DT AOD. The simulated and observed PM concentrations might differ by a factor of 2 because it is more challenging for the model and the assimilation products to reproduce PM concentration measured within the city. Although aerosol fields in WRF-Chem and assimilation products are entirely consistent, WRF-Chem is preferable for analysis of regional air quality over the ME due to its higher spatial resolution and better SO₂ emissions. The WRF-Chem’s PM background concentrations exceed the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines over the entire ME. Mineral dust is the major contributor to PM (≈75 %–95 %) compared to other aerosol types. Near and downwind from the SO₂ emission sources, nondust aerosols (primarily sulfate) contribute up to 30 % to PM_2.5. The contribution of sea salt to PM in coastal regions can reach 5 %. The contributions of organic matter, black carbon and organic carbon to PM over the Middle East are insignificant. In the major cities over the Arabian Peninsula, the 90th percentile of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 (particles with diameters less than 10 and 2.5 µm, respectively) daily mean surface concentrations exceed the corresponding Kingdom of Saudi Arabia air quality limits. The contribution of the nondust component to PM_2.5 is <25 %, which limits the emission control effect on air quality. The mitigation of the dust effect on air quality requires the development of environment-based approaches like growing tree belts around the cities and enhancing in-city vegetation cover. The WRF-Chem configuration presented in this study could be a prototype of a future air quality forecast system that warns the population against air pollution hazards.

Air‐borne dust affects all aspects of human life. The sources of dust have high spatial variation and a better quantification of dust emission helps to identify remediation measures. Orographic and statistical source functions allow a better estimation of dust emission fluxes in coarse‐scale modeling, but a high‐resolution source function is necessary to represent the highly heterogeneous nature of dust sources at the finer scale. Here we use a newly developed high‐resolution (~500 m) source function in Weather Research and Forecasting model, coupled with chemistry (WRF‐Chem) to simulate dust emission over the Middle East and North Africa and evaluate our simulated results against observations. Using a 4‐km grid spacing, we also simulate the emission and transport of dust originating from the Tigris‐Euphrates basin, one of the most important regional dust sources, and quantify the effects of this source on the air quality of the entire Arabian Peninsula. Results show that the use of new source function effectively represents the key dust sources and provides reasonable estimates of dust optical depth and concentrations. We find that the atmospheric dust originating from the Tigris‐Euphrates basin alone exceeds the particulate matter 10 air quality standards in several downwind cities. Our results have broader environmental implications and indicate that the mobilization of depleted uranium deposited in Kuwait and Southern Iraq during the Gulf War (1991) could potentially affect the urban centers over the peninsula, albeit in low concentrations. Our results suggest that an integrated and coordinated management of the Tigris‐Euphrates basin is necessary to maintain good air quality across the Arabian Peninsula.

In this paper, we rectify inconsistencies that emerge in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) v3.2 code when using the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module. These inconsistencies have been reported, and corrections have been implemented in WRF-Chem v4.1.3. Here, we use a WRF-Chem experimental setup configured over the Middle East (ME) to estimate the effects of these inconsistencies. Firstly, we show that the old version underestimates the PM_2.5 diagnostic output by 7 % and overestimates PM₁₀ by 5 % in comparison with the corrected one. Secondly, we demonstrate that submicron dust particles' contribution was incorrectly accounted for in the calculation of optical properties. Therefore, aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the old version was 25 %–30 % less than in the corrected one. Thirdly, we show that the gravitational settling procedure, in comparison with the corrected version, caused higher dust column loadings by 4 %–6 %, PM₁₀ surface concentrations by 2 %–4 %, and mass of the gravitationally settled dust by 5 %–10 %. The cumulative effect of the found inconsistencies led to the significantly higher dust content in the atmosphere in comparison with the corrected WRF-Chem version. Our results explain why in many WRF-Chem simulations PM₁₀ concentrations were exaggerated. We present the methodology for calculating diagnostics we used to estimate the impacts of introduced code modifications. We share the developed Merra2BC interpolator, which allows processing Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) output for constructing initial and boundary conditions for chemical species and aerosols.

Volcanic explosions are the most critical replenishing mechanism of the stratospheric aerosol Junge layer. A fresh volcanic cloud comprises mostly sulfur‐bearing gases, volcanic ash, and water vapor. It is commonly assumed that only sulfate aerosols remain in an aged volcanic cloud. Accurate simulation of the initial evolution of multicomponent fresh volcanic clouds is largely missing due to insufficient spatial resolution and a lack of relevant physics in global climate models. However, this initial stage is essential, as the vertical structure, composition, and altitude of a freshly developed volcanic cloud affect its long‐term evolution. To fill this gap, we modified a regional WRF‐Chem model to study the dispersion of a Pinatubo‐size volcanic cloud in the equatorial belt with a 25 km grid spacing explicitly accounting for the SO₂, ash, sulfate, water vapor, and hydrometeors radiative effects. The model best reproduces the observed evolution of the Pinatubo optical depth when eruptive products are injected above the cold tropical tropopause at 17 km. During the first week, the volcanic cloud in our simulations rises 1 km/day. Ash is primarily responsible for the heating and lofting of the volcanic products. Radiative heating of SO₂ is weaker than that of ash and sulfate but is sufficient to position the core of the SO₂ layer 1–2 km above the sulfate layer. Utilizing a more realistic description of the volcanic cloud's initial stage potentially improves overall volcanic cloud predictability. It might also be essential to designing geoengineering technologies based on the injection of aerosol precursors in the lower stratosphere.

With advances in modeling approaches and the application of satellite and ground-based data in dust-related research, our understanding of the dust cycle has significantly improved in recent decades. However, two aspects of the dust cycle, namely the vertical profiles and diurnal cycles, are not yet adequately understood, mainly due to the sparsity of direct observations. Measurements of backscattering caused by atmospheric aerosols have been ongoing since 2014 at the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) campus using a micro-pulse lidar (MPL) with a high temporal resolution. KAUST is located on the eastern coast of the Red Sea and currently hosts the only operating lidar system in the Arabian Peninsula. We use the data from the MPL together with other collocated observations and high-resolution simulations (with 1.33 km grid spacing) from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to study the following three aspects of dust over the Red Sea coastal plains. Firstly, we compare the model-simulated surface winds, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and aerosol size distributions with observations and evaluate the model performance in representing a typical large-scale dust event over the study site. Secondly, we investigate the vertical profiles of aerosol extinction and concentration in terms of their seasonal and diurnal variability. Thirdly, we explore the interactions between dust aerosols and land/sea breezes, which are the most influential components of the local diurnal circulation in the region. The WRF-Chem model successfully reproduced the diurnal profile of surface wind speed, AOD, and dust size distributions over the study area compared to observations. The model also captured the onset, demise, and height of a large-scale dust event that occurred in 2015, as compared to the lidar data. The vertical profiles of aerosol extinction in different seasons were largely consistent between the MPL data and WRF-Chem simulations along with key observations and reanalyses used in this study. We found a substantial variation in the vertical profile of aerosols in different seasons and between daytime and nighttime, as revealed by the MPL data. The MPL data also identified a prominent dust layer at ∼5–7 km during the nighttime, which likely represents the long-range transported dust brought to the site by the easterly flow from remote inland deserts. The sea breeze circulation was much deeper (∼2 km) than the land breeze circulation (∼1 km), but both breeze systems prominently affected the distribution of dust aerosols over the study site. We observed that sea breezes push the dust aerosols upwards along the western slope of the Sarawat Mountains. These sea breezes eventually collide with the dust-laden northeasterly trade winds coming from nearby inland deserts, thus causing elevated dust maxima at a height of ∼1.5 km above sea level over the mountains. Moreover, the sea and land breezes intensify dust emissions from the coastal region during the daytime and nighttime, respectively. Our study, although focused on a particular region, has broader environmental implications as it highlights how aerosols and dust emissions from the coastal plains can affect the Red Sea climate and marine habitats.

Oil recovery, power generation, water desalination, gas flaring, and traffic are the main contributors to SO emissions in the Middle East (ME). Satellite observations suggest that the traditional emission inventories do not account for multiple SO emission sources in the ME. This study aims to evaluate the most frequently used SO emission data sets over the ME by comparing high‐resolution regional model simulations and meteorology/chemistry assimilation products, MERRA‐2 and CAMS, with satellite and available ground‐based air‐quality observations. Here, we employ the WRF‐Chem‐3.7.1 regional meteorology‐chemistry model and conduct simulations for the period 2015–2016 with 10 km grid spacing using HTAP‐2.2 emission data sets and the new OMI‐HTAP data, which is based on the combination of the near‐surface SO emissions taken from the HTAP‐2.2 inventory with strong (>30 kt/year) SO point sources obtained from the satellite Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) observations. We find that conventional emission inventories (EDGAR‐4.2, MACCity, and HTAP‐2.2) have uncertainties in the location and magnitude of SO sources in the ME and significantly underestimate SO emissions in the Arabian Gulf. The WRF‐Chem, run in conjunction with the new OMI‐HTAP emissions, improves comparisons between the satellite and ground‐based SO observations. Our simulations show that SO surface concentrations in Jeddah and Riyadh frequently exceed European air‐quality limits. The ME generates about 10% of global anthropogenic SO emissions, on par with India. Therefore, the development of effective emission controls and improvement of air‐quality monitoring in the ME are urgently needed.