Johannes Flemming

Johannes Flemming

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Johannes Flemming

Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

27Years (2000-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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17 May 2020 in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Verified
Journal Article
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HHHans Hersbach
Hans Hersbach
BBBill Bell
Bill Bell
PBPaul Berrisford
Paul Berrisford
SHShoji Hirahara
Shoji Hirahara
AHAndrás Horányi
András Horányi
JTJean‐Noël Thépaut
Jean‐Noël Thépaut
Within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF is producing the ERA5 reanalysis which, once completed, will embody a detailed record of the global atmosphere, land surface and ocean waves from 1950 onwards. This new reanalysis replaces the ERA‐Interim reanalysis (spanning 1979 onwards) which was started in 2006. ERA5 is based on the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Cy41r2 which was operational in 2016. ERA5 thus benefits from a decade of developments in model physics, core dynamics and data assimilation. In addition to a significantly enhanced horizontal resolution of 31 km, compared to 80 km for ERA‐Interim, ERA5 has hourly output throughout, and an uncertainty estimate from an ensemble (3‐hourly at half the horizontal resolution). This paper describes the general set‐up of ERA5, as well as a basic evaluation of characteristics and performance, with a focus on the dataset from 1979 onwards which is currently publicly available. Re‐forecasts from ERA5 analyses show a gain of up to one day in skill with respect to ERA‐Interim. Comparison with radiosonde and PILOT data prior to assimilation shows an improved fit for temperature, wind and humidity in the troposphere, but not the stratosphere. A comparison with independent buoy data shows a much improved fit for ocean wave height. The uncertainty estimate reflects the evolution of the observing systems used in ERA5. The enhanced temporal and spatial resolution allows for a detailed evolution of weather systems. For precipitation, global‐mean correlation with monthly‐mean GPCP data is increased from 67% to 77%. In general, low‐frequency variability is found to be well represented and from 10 hPa downwards general patterns of anomalies in temperature match those from the ERA‐Interim, MERRA‐2 and JRA‐55 reanalyses.

7 April 2015 in Geoscientific Model Development
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Journal Article
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JFJ. Flemming
J. Flemming
VHVincent Huijnen
Vincent Huijnen
JAJ. Arteta
J. Arteta
PBPeter Bechtold
Peter Bechtold
ABA. Beljaars
A. Beljaars
ATAthanasios Tsikerdekis
Athanasios Tsikerdekis
A representation of atmospheric chemistry has been included in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new chemistry modules complement the aerosol modules of the IFS for atmospheric composition, which is named C-IFS. C-IFS for chemistry supersedes a coupled system in which chemical transport model (CTM) Model for OZone and Related chemical Tracers 3 was two-way coupled to the IFS (IFS-MOZART). This paper contains a description of the new on-line implementation, an evaluation with observations and a comparison of the performance of C-IFS with MOZART and with a re-analysis of atmospheric composition produced by IFS-MOZART within the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project. The chemical mechanism of C-IFS is an extended version of the Carbon Bond 2005 (CB05) chemical mechanism as implemented in CTM Transport Model 5 (TM5). CB05 describes tropospheric chemistry with 54 species and 126 reactions. Wet deposition and lightning nitrogen monoxide (NO) emissions are modelled in C-IFS using the detailed input of the IFS physics package. A 1 year simulation by C-IFS, MOZART and the MACC re-analysis is evaluated against ozonesondes, carbon monoxide (CO) aircraft profiles, European surface observations of ozone (O3), CO, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as well as satellite retrievals of CO, tropospheric NO2 and formaldehyde. Anthropogenic emissions from the MACC/CityZen (MACCity) inventory and biomass burning emissions from the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) data set were used in the simulations by both C-IFS and MOZART. C-IFS (CB05) showed an improved performance with respect to MOZART for CO, upper tropospheric O3, and wintertime SO2, and was of a similar accuracy for other evaluated species. C-IFS (CB05) is about 10 times more computationally efficient than IFS-MOZART.

10 January 2014 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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Alexander BaklanovAlexander Baklanov
Alexander Baklanov
KSK. Schlünzen
K. Schlünzen
PSP. Suppan
P. Suppan
JBJose M. Baldasano
Jose M. Baldasano
DBDominik Brunner
Dominik Brunner
YZY. Zhang
Y. Zhang
Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. Two ways of online coupling can be distinguished: online integrated and online access coupling. Online integrated models simulate meteorology and chemistry over the same grid in one model using one main time step for integration. Online access models use independent meteorology and chemistry modules that might even have different grids, but exchange meteorology and chemistry data on a regular and frequent basis. This article offers a comprehensive review of the current research status of online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry modelling within Europe. Eighteen regional online coupled models developed or being used in Europe are described and compared. Topics discussed include a survey of processes relevant to the interactions between atmospheric physics, dynamics and composition; a brief overview of existing online mesoscale models and European model developments; an analysis on how feedback processes are treated in these models; numerical issues associated with coupled models; and several case studies and model performance evaluation methods. Finally, this article highlights selected scientific issues and emerging challenges that require proper consideration to improve the reliability and usability of these models for the three scientific communities: air quality, numerical meteorology modelling (including weather prediction) and climate modelling. This review will be of particular interest to model developers and users in all three fields as it presents a synthesis of scientific progress and provides recommendations for future research directions and priorities in the development, application and evaluation of online coupled models.

18 May 2015 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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Journal Article
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MBM. Bocquet
M. Bocquet
HEHendrik Elbern
Hendrik Elbern
HEH. Eskes
H. Eskes
MHM. Hirtl
M. Hirtl
RŽR. Žabkar
R. Žabkar
CSC. Seigneur
C. Seigneur
Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of three-dimensional chemical (including aerosol) concentrations and perform inverse modeling of input variables or model parameters (e.g., emissions). Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. They offer the possibility to assimilate both meteorological and chemical data; however, because CCMM are fairly recent, data assimilation in CCMM has been limited to date. We review here the current status of data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models with a particular focus on future prospects for data assimilation in CCMM. We first review the methods available for data assimilation in atmospheric models, including variational methods, ensemble Kalman filters, and hybrid methods. Next, we review past applications that have included chemical data assimilation in chemical transport models (CTM) and in CCMM. Observational data sets available for chemical data assimilation are described, including surface data, surface-based remote sensing, airborne data, and satellite data. Several case studies of chemical data assimilation in CCMM are presented to highlight the benefits obtained by assimilating chemical data in CCMM. A case study of data assimilation to constrain emissions is also presented. There are few examples to date of joint meteorological and chemical data assimilation in CCMM and potential difficulties associated with data assimilation in CCMM are discussed. As the number of variables being assimilated increases, it is essential to characterize correctly the errors; in particular, the specification of error cross-correlations may be problematic. In some cases, offline diagnostics are necessary to ensure that data assimilation can truly improve model performance. However, the main challenge is likely to be the paucity of chemical data available for assimilation in CCMM.

9 February 2017 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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Journal Article
Open access
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JFJohannes Flemming
Johannes Flemming
ABAngela Benedetti
Angela Benedetti
AIAntje Inness
Antje Inness
RERichard J. Engelen
Richard J. Engelen
LJLuke Jones
Luke Jones
EKEleni Katragkou
Eleni Katragkou
A new global reanalysis data set of atmospheric composition (AC) for the period 2003–2015 has been produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Satellite observations of total column (TC) carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol optical depth (AOD), as well as several TC and profile observations of ozone, have been assimilated with the Integrated Forecasting System for Composition (C-IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Compared to the previous Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis (MACCRA), the new CAMS interim reanalysis (CAMSiRA) is of a coarser horizontal resolution of about 110 km, compared to 80 km, but covers a longer period with the intent to be continued to present day. This paper compares CAMSiRA with MACCRA and a control run experiment (CR) without assimilation of AC retrievals. CAMSiRA has smaller biases than the CR with respect to independent observations of CO, AOD and stratospheric ozone. However, ozone at the surface could not be improved by the assimilation because of the strong impact of surface processes such as dry deposition and titration with nitrogen monoxide (NO), which were both unchanged by the assimilation. The assimilation of AOD led to a global reduction of sea salt and desert dust as well as an exaggerated increase in sulfate. Compared to MACCRA, CAMSiRA had smaller biases for AOD, surface CO and TC ozone as well as for upper stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Finally, the temporal consistency of CAMSiRA was better than the one of MACCRA. This was achieved by using a revised emission data set as well as by applying careful selection and bias correction to the assimilated retrievals. CAMSiRA is therefore better suited than MACCRA for the study of interannual variability, as demonstrated for trends in surface CO.

1 August 2015 in Atmospheric Environment
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
UIUlas Im
Ulas Im
RBRoberto Bianconi
Roberto Bianconi
ESEfisio Solazzo
Efisio Solazzo
Ioannis KioutsioukisIoannis Kioutsioukis
Ioannis Kioutsioukis
Alba BadiaAlba Badia
Alba Badia
SGStefano Galmarini
Stefano Galmarini