Bu çalışmada 6 Şubat 2023 tarihinde sırasıyla yerel saat ile 04:17 ve 13:24’te artarda meydana gelen Sofalaca-Şehitkamil Gaziantep (Mw:7.7) ve Ekinözü Kahramanmaraş (Mw:7.6) depremlerinin öncül jeodezik sonuçları verilmiştir. Öncül jeodezik sonuçları elde etmek için deprem odak merkezleri etrafındaki ve etkili olduğu alandaki TUSAGA-Aktif istasyonlarına ait GNSS alıcılarından 30 sn (0,033 Hz) ve 1 sn’lik (1 Hz) GNSS gözlemleri kullanılmıştır. Deprem kaynaklı kosismik yer değiştirmeleri belirlemek için bağıl statik çözümler GAMIT/GLOBK yazılım takımında 30 sn’lik RINEX verileri kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Statik çözümlerde değerlendirmeye alınan istasyonlarda Sofalaca-Şehitkamil Gaziantep depreminde doğu bileşende atımın 1.1-23.4 cm, kuzey bileşende 1.1-30.9 cm aralığında değiştiği görülmüştür. Ekinözü Kahramanmaraş depreminde ise atım miktarı doğu bileşende 1.2-440.4 cm, kuzey bileşende 1.4-69.6 cm aralığında değişmiştir. Kinematik çözümler ise PPP yöntemiyle CSRS-PPP ve PRIDE PPP-AR yazılımları ile 1 sn’lik RINEX verileri kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Her iki yazılımda seçilen istasyonlardaki deprem anı yer değiştirmeler (deplasman) ve ardışık epok farkları (hız) hesaplanmıştır. Seçilen tüm istasyonlarda hızlar Sofalaca-Şehitkamil Gaziantep depreminde doğu bileşen için 3-12.5 cm/sn, kuzey bileşen için 3.8 - 37.7 cm/sn aralığında; Ekinözü Kahramanmaraş depreminde ise doğu bileşende 3.7-20.5 cm/sn, kuzey bileşende 4.1-20.1 cm/sn tespit edilmiştir. Öncül sonuçların elde edilmesinden sonra bölgenin daha yakından takibi ve yeni noktalarda atımların tespiti için yeni bir GNSS ağı kurulmuştur. Kurulan yeni ağda TÜBİTAK 1002-C Doğal Afetler Odaklı Saha Çalışması Acil Destek Programı çağrısı kapsamında arazi çalışmalarına başlanmıştır.

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in the north of Türkiye is considered one of the most active faults on earth and have caused many major earthquakes in the last century. Surface ruptures by those earthquakes indicate that this tectonic feature consists of many segments, which reveal different characteristics in terms of geometry and mechanism. NAFZ lies along between Bingöl in the eastern Turkey and Saros Gulf in the west. This study focuses on the central part of the NAFZ between Niksar and Ilgaz provinces. In addition to the main branch, the central section of the NAFZ also contains two sub-branches extending southward: Merzifon-Esençay and Sungurlu Faults. In the literature, there are several studies for the region, however a comprehensive study mainly focusing on the main branch of the NAFZ and its sub-branches along the central NAFZ has not been conducted yet, which would fully reveal the fault mechanism and seismic potential in the region. The aim of this study is to derive an up-to-date high-spa-tial-resolution Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) velocity field for the central NAFZ and to correlate with the strain accumulations along the faults. Based on this, a high-spatial-resolution GNSS network consisting of 60 sites was established enclosing the central NAFZ. The previously archived GNSS data for the same observation sites were collected from the different studies in the region and a new GNSS campaign measurement was conducted between October 2023 and February 2024. All GNSS data were processed using GAMIT/GLOBK software, and the results indicate the GNSS velocities ranging from 3-30 mm/year and their associated uncertainties of maximum ± 1.5 mm/year with respect to the Eurasian tectonic plate.

This study presents a new high-resolution GNSS-derived velocity field and the first internally consistent, segment-resolved block model for the Havran–Balıkesir Fault Zone (HBFZ) in western Anatolia. Inversion of the GNSS velocity field was performed using a dense network of 77 sites within a 3D elastic half-space framework to estimate fault slip rates and interseismic coupling. The results reveal that the HBFZ behaves as a kinematically heterogeneous fault system, with deformation systematically partitioned along strike. Block-modeling results indicate pronounced along-strike variations in interseismic coupling and slip-deficit accumulation. While the westernmost Havran segment is weakly coupled and accommodates limited accumulation, the Turplu and Gökçeyazı segments emerge as major strain-accumulation zones with high and laterally continuous slip-deficit rates. In particular, the Gökçeyazı segment exhibits slip-deficit rates of ~4–6 mm/yr and nearly two millennia of seismic quiescence, implying the potential for a future large-magnitude earthquake (Mw ~7.1–7.3). The strong agreement between GNSS-derived deformation patterns and independent geological and paleoseismological constraints suggests that this segment is currently in an advanced stage of the seismic cycle. These findings highlight the importance of segment-scale geodetic observations for seismic hazard assessment in northwestern Anatolia.

Soil temperature prediction is important for farming, climate research, and environmental modeling. This research proposes an ensemble prediction method for soil temperature prediction on a daily basis using lag feature and Gaussian noise. In the proposed framework, the ensemble algorithms Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and Gradient Boosting Regressor (GradientBoosting) are compared. The models are trained on a dataset enriched with lagged temperature values and synthetic noise and evaluated using metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R²) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that all models exhibited high prediction performance. However, the GradientBoosting model has the best performance with an R² value of approximately 0.96. To further assess the time series structure and model behavior in detail, diagnostic analyses such as autocorrelation analysis, box plots and residual histograms are also conducted. The proposed strategy works well for reliable short-term soil temperature prediction.