In this paper, the authors outline the general principles behind an approach to Bayesian system identification and highlight the benefits of adopting a Bayesian framework when attempting to identify models of nonlinear dynamical systems in the presence of uncertainty. It is then described how, through a summary of some key algorithms, many of the potential difficulties associated with a Bayesian approach can be overcome through the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The paper concludes with a case study, where an MCMC algorithm is used to facilitate the Bayesian system identification of a nonlinear dynamical system from experimentally observed acceleration time histories.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a method for drawing samples from non-standard probability distributions. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular variant of MCMC that uses gradient information to explore the target distribution. The Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler is an alternative sampling method which, unlike MCMC, can readily utilise parallel computing architectures. It is typical within SMC literature to target a tempered distribution using a proposal with an accept/reject mechanism. In this letter, we show how the proposal used in the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), an advanced variant of HMC, can be incorporated into an SMC sampler without an accept/reject mechanism. Empirical results show that this can remove the need for tempering and gives rise to accurate estimates being generated in fewer iterations which motivates this technique being deployed on parallel hardware.

Antimicrobial susceptibility testing is a key weapon against antimicrobial resistance. Diagnostic microbiology laboratories use one-size-fits-all testing approaches that are often imprecise, inefficient, and inequitable. Here, we report a personalised approach that adapts laboratory testing for urinary tract infection to maximise the number of appropriate treatment options for each patient. We develop and assess susceptibility prediction models for 12 antibiotics on real-world healthcare data using an individual-level simulation study. When combined with decision thresholds that prioritise selection of World Health Organisation Access category antibiotics (those least likely to induce antimicrobial resistance), the personalised approach delivers more susceptible results (results that encourage prescription of that antibiotic) per specimen for Access category antibiotics than a standard testing approach, without compromising provision of susceptible results overall. Here, we show that personalised antimicrobial susceptibility testing could help tackle antimicrobial resistance by safely providing more Access category antibiotic treatment options to clinicians managing urinary tract infection.

Risk-averse areas such as the medical, aerospace and energy sectors have been somewhat slow towards accepting and applying Additive Manufacturing (AM) in many of their value chains. This is partly because there are still signicant uncertainties concerning the quality of AM builds. This paper introduces a machine learning algorithm for the automatic detection of faults in AM products. The approach is semi-supervised in that, during training, it is able to use data from both builds where the resulting components were certied and builds where the quality of the resulting components is unknown. This makes the approach cost ecient, particularly in scenarios where part certication is costly and time consuming. The study specically analyses Selective Laser Melting (SLM) builds. Key features are extracted from large sets of photodiode data, obtained during the building of 49 tensile test bars. Ultimate tensile strength (UTS) tests were then used to categorise each bar as `faulty' or `acceptable'. A fully supervised approach identied faulty specimens with a 77% success rate while the semi-supervised approach was able to consistently achieve similar results, despite being trained on a fraction of the available certication data. The results show that semi-supervised learning is a promising approach for the automatic certication of AM builds that can be implemented at a fraction of the cost currently required.

Physical-law-based models are widely utilized in the aerospace industry. One such use is to provide flight dynamics models for use in flight simulators. For human-in-the-loop use, such simulators must run in real-time. Owing to the complex physics of rotorcraft flight, to meet this real-time requirement, simplifications to the underlying physics sometimes have to be applied to the model, leading to errors in the model's predictions of the real vehicle's response. This study investigated whether a machine-learning technique could be employed to provide rotorcraft dynamic response predictions. Machine learning was facilitated using a Gaussian process (GP) nonlinear autoregressive model, which predicted the on-axis pitch rate, roll rate, yaw rate, and heave responses of a Bo105 rotorcraft. A variational sparse GP model was then developed to reduce the computational cost of implementing the approach on large datasets. It was found that both of the GP models were able to provide accurate on-axis response predictions, particularly when the model input contained all four control inceptors and one lagged on-axis response term. The predictions made showed improvement compared to a corresponding physics-based model. The reduction of training data to one-third (rotational axes) or one-half (heave axis) resulted in only minor degradation of the sparse GP model predictions.