This study aimed to examine the spatio-temporal variations in the atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH) over the Tarim Basin (TB). Monthly ABLH data from the ERA-Interim dataset from January 1979 to December 2018 were used. Periodicity analysis and the Mann–Kendall Abrupt Changes test were employed to identify the change cycle and abrupt change year of the boundary layer height. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method was utilized to determine the spatial distribution of the boundary layer height, and the RF method was used to establish the relationship between the ABLH and influencing factors. The results demonstrated that the highest values of ABLH (over 1900 m) were observed in the middle parts of the study area in June, and the ABLH exhibited a significant increase over the TB throughout the study period. Abrupt changes in the ABLH were also identified in 2004, as well as in 2-, 5-, 9-, and 15-year changing cycles. The first EOF ABLH mode indicated that the middle and northeast regions are relatively high ABLH areas within the study area. Additionally, the monthly variations in ABLH show a moderately positive correlation with air temperature, while exhibiting a negative correlation with air pressure and relative humidity.

Sand dune migration, as a typical dynamic process of aeolian geomorphology in arid regions, directly influences regional ecological security and infrastructure development. Focusing on the western edge of the Kumtag Desert, this study uses remote sensing imagery and field investigations, combined with multi-factor meteorological observations and CMIP6 climate scenarios, to quantitatively analyze the migration characteristics and influencing factors of representative dunes, and to construct a predictive model for future migration trends. The dominant migration direction is W–WNW–NW, which closely matches the composite resultant drift potential. The average annual migration speed is 12.86 m·a⁻¹, classifying these dunes as fast-moving; small to medium dunes migrate faster (13.84 m·a⁻¹) than large dunes (11.27 m·a⁻¹). Wind speed, sand-moving wind frequency, drift potential (DP), Vegetation Fractional Cover (FVC), and precipitation significantly affect migration speeds; wind speed is the primary driver (single-factor R² = 0.41), while precipitation (R² = 0.26) and FVC (R² = 0.27) exert a suppressing effect, particularly on small to medium dunes. Based on stepwise multiple regression analysis combined with CMIP6 multi-model predictions, under the SSP8.5 scenario, characterized by significant temperature increases, drastic fluctuations in precipitation patterns, and notable increases in wind speed, the average annual sand dune migration speed is projected to reach 18.59 m·a⁻¹ by the end of this century, an increase of 5.78 m·a⁻¹ compared to the current speeds; whereas under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, changes are projected to be minor and overall relatively stable. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for regional infrastructure and engineering planning, as well as for the renovation and protection of existing oil and power transmission lines.

Drought characterization in hyper-arid endorheic basins requires multi-index approaches that capture distinct hydrometeorological processes. This study investigates spatio-temporal drought dynamics in the Tarim Basin (TB)—China’s largest inland arid region—using two complementary remote sensing indices: the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) for landscape-scale moisture and the Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) for agricultural drought. Based on 2000–2024 remote sensing and meteorological data, we employed a pixel-wise Random Forest framework with spatial cross-validation and permutation importance analysis to quantify climatic drivers across the TB. Results reveal a fundamental “core-periphery” dichotomy: TVDI identifies persistent extreme drought in the Taklamakan Desert core, while CWSI reveals alleviating water stress in peripheral oasis farmlands (73.21% showing significant decrease, p < 0.05). Despite regional warming-wetting trends, TVDI exhibited an insignificant decrease (54.72% of the basin), contrasting with CWSI's significant agricultural drought alleviation. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD)—a key atmospheric dryness indicator—exhibited high relative permutation importance for both drought indices (72–75%), considerably exceeding the values obtained for precipitation (6–8%) within the Tarim Basin. Secondary drivers diverge by land surface type: TVDI responds to Relative Humidity (8.2%) and Precipitation (6.1%), while CWSI is modulated by Land Surface Temperature (9.4%) and Sunshine Hours (7.8%). Partial correlation analyses controlling for topography and temperature confirm VPD’s independent effect on drought severity. Large-scale climate oscillations, particularly the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and ENSO-PDO interactions, significantly modulate interannual drought variability (r = 0.74–0.75, p < 0.01). This study provides the first pixel-scale quantification of the relative dominance of atmospheric water demand over precipitation in driving drought evolution in the Tarim Basin, with VPD contributing 72–75% of the total permutation importance compared to 6–8% for precipitation. This quantitative benchmark offers actionable parameters for drought monitoring systems in arid regions and underscores the need to integrate VPD and large-scale climate signals into early warning frameworks.