Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century. In this study, we explore the present and future (in the years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy model. Our findings indicated that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21°34′ and 65°39′ N in the Eurasian continent. The primary factor controlling the distribution of O. robiniae is temperature. The highly and moderately suitable areas are mainly distributed in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions, which also happen to be the locations where the host black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) grows at its fastest rate. The forecast of the potential distribution area of O. robiniae revealed that the species would benefit from global warming. The region suitable for the habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend and an increase in temperature. This information would help the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries provide early warnings on the probable distribution areas of O. robiniae and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.

The global invasion of the shrub L. camara poses a significant threat to ecosystems. Understanding the roles of human activity and climate in driving its spread is crucial for management. This study aimed to quantify its global invasion dynamics, identify key drivers, and predict future distribution shifts. We constructed a high-precision ensemble species distribution model by integrating historical global occurrence records, multi-source environmental variables (climate and human activity indices), and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The global invasion showed a clear four-stage acceleration pattern (1900–1960, 1961–1980, 1981–2000, and 2001–2025). Variable importance and response curve analysis revealed a two-phase “dispersal–colonization” mechanism: human activities (e.g., gross domestic product) acted as a “dispersal amplifier,” while a climatic factor (isothermality) served as a critical “colonization filter.” Under two future climate scenarios assuming unchanged human activity patterns, the potential suitable habitat of L. camara exhibits structural changes while maintaining stable total area. The highly suitable areas continue to shrink, with nearly half the area lost by the end of the century under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 pathway, while low-suitability zones expand significantly—yet the overall suitable habitat remains stable. Under SSP1-2.6, structural changes in suitable habitats occur more gradually. The study clarifies the distinct roles of human activity and climate in the invasion process, providing a scientific basis for differentiated global risk management strategies targeting dispersal pathways and colonization thresholds.

Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century and was then spread at an explosive rate. Here, we explore the current and future (in years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21.58°-65.66°N in the Eurasian continent. The total current potential distribution (CPD) area of O. robiniae in Eurasia was 10,896,309.16 km2 , with suitable areas covering a substantial section of Europe. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1), Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and the Precipitation of the Driest Month (Bio14) are the most important bioclimatic variables determining the potential distribution of O. robiniae. The future area suitable for habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend with temperature elevation. The marginally suitable and highly suitable areas would thus increase, whereas the southern appropriate areas would shrink. Under the SSP585 scenario, in 2070, the suitable area of O. robiniae would be the largest, up to 14,696,253.77 km2, which is 34.87% more than the current suitable area. This information would facilitate the provision of early warning on the potential distribution areas of O. robiniae issued by the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is number one invasive alien species in China's forestry. Since it invaded China in 1982, it has spread to 18 provinces (cities) in 2020. In order to clarify its expansion law and the impact of climate factors, we collected the the census data of pine wilt disease (PWD) from 2010 to 2020, as well as the meteorological data. The "centroid model" was used to analyze the movement of the centroid of the epidemic area in China, and the results showed that the center of PWD occurrence was basically located in Jiangxi Province. Compared with the centroid position of North America (The native production), the centroid position where PWD occurs in China is southward, and the difference between the two is 10.5195°. By comparing the distribution of south boundary, north boundary and centroid of PWD in the native area of North America, it shows that Bursaphelenchus xylophilus can flourish in all regions of China, and the PWD epidemic in China will spread to the North in the future. In addition, the relationship between PWD epidemic and temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity in Jiangxi Province was quantitatively analyzed using redundancy analysis (RDA). It shows that the relationship between PWD and temperature is the most closely, which is positive correlation, followed by precipitation, which is negative correlation. Meanwhile, the effect of wind speed on PWD is second only to precipitation and temperature. These analysis results have certain significance for the prevention and control of PWD.