A dynamic spatial computable general equilibrium (DSCGE) model is constructed that describes how engineering and economic models can be integrated to assess the economic, demographic, and fiscal impacts of disasters. This paper has two objectives. First, we introduce the DSCGE model and describe how it is calibrated specifically for Centerville. Second, to demonstrate the analytic flexibility of the DSCGE platform, we present economy-wide prompt effects from simulations involving spatially circumscribed shocks to Centerville’s building portfolio and transportation infrastructure, and then detail dynamic economy-wide effects from simulations involving combinations of infrastructure damage and adjustments to the economic behavior of agents. We conclude with a discussion of the technical challenges ahead.

The growing number of flood disasters worldwide and the subsequent catastrophic consequences of these events have revealed the flood vulnerability of communities. Flood impact predictions are essential for better flood risk management which can result in an improvement of flood preparedness for vulnerable communities. Early flood warnings can provide households and business owners additional time to save certain possessions or products in their buildings. This can be accomplished by elevating some of the water-sensitive components (e.g., appliances, furniture, electronics, etc.) or installing a temporary flood barrier. Although many qualitative and quantitative flood risk models have been developed and highlighted in the literature, the resolution used in these models does not allow a detailed analysis of flood mitigation at the building- and community level. Therefore, in this article, a high-fidelity flood risk model was used to provide a linkage between the outputs from a high-resolution flood hazard model integrated with a component-based probabilistic flood vulnerability model to account for the damage for each building within the community. The developed model allowed to investigate the benefits of using a precipitation forecast system that allows a lead time for the community to protect its assets and thereby decreasing the amount of flood-induced losses.

Earthquakes have caused tremendous losses worldwide. Though unpredictable, comprehensive assessment of their impact on urban areas can facilitate effectiveness in mitigation strategies. This paper builds a spatial general equilibrium (SCGE) model for Shelby County, Tennessee, an area located in the most active seismic zone in the central and eastern U.S. Starting from the building, lifeline and transportation damages, this paper also develops means by which such damages can be integrated into the SCGE model for prompt effect estimation. Using novel approaches to represent substitution and shifting behaviors intra-regionally within the county, the model estimated a total of loss over $8 billion in domestic supply due to a hypothetical earthquake. Compared with the outcomes from the model without these behaviors, the magnitude of the losses is smaller in the model with these behaviors. This implies the resistance, resourcefulness and flexibility from economic resilience, as the level of physical damages do vary intra-regionally. Interestingly, although the percentage of losses in domestic supply varies almost linearly with the percentage loss in physical damage intra-regionally, the losses in employment are relatively evenly distributed. This also emphasizes the importance of the shifting and substitution behaviors which make the model profoundly spatial.