As the number of people affected by COVID-19 disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 ebbs and flows in different national and sub-national regions across the world, it is evident that our lifestyle and socio-economic trajectories will have to be adapted and adjusted to the changing scenarios. Novel forecasting tools and frameworks provide an arguable advantage to facilitate this adapting and adjusting process, by promoting efficient resource management at individual and institutional levels. Based on deterministic compartment models we propose an empirical top-down modeling approach to provide epidemic forecasts and risk calculations for (local) outbreaks. We use neural networks to develop leading indicators based on available data for different regions. These indicators are not only used to assess the risk of a (new) outbreak or to determine the effectiveness of a measure at an early stage, but also in parametric models to determine an effective forecast, along with the associated uncertainty. Based on initial results, we show the performance of such an approach and its robustness against inherent disturbances in epidemiological surveillance data. We foresee such a statistical framework to drive web-based automatic platforms to democratize the dissemination of prognosis results.

Food fraud, even when not in the news, is ubiquitous and demands the development of innovative strategies to combat it. A new non-targeted method (NTM) for distinguishing spelt and wheat is described, which aids in food fraud detection and authenticity testing. A highly resolved fingerprint in the form of spectra is obtained for several cultivars of spelt and wheat using liquid chromatography coupled high-resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS). Convolutional neural network (CNN) models are built using a nested cross validation (NCV) approach by appropriately training them using a calibration set comprising duplicate measurements of eleven cultivars of wheat and spelt, each. The results reveal that the CNNs automatically learn patterns and representations to best discriminate tested samples into spelt or wheat. This is further investigated using an external validation set comprising artificially mixed spectra, samples for processed goods (spelt bread and flour), eleven untypical spelt, and six old wheat cultivars. These cultivars were not part of model building. We introduce a metric called the D score to quantitatively evaluate and compare the classification decisions. Our results demonstrate that NTMs based on NCV and CNNs trained using appropriately chosen spectral data can be reliable enough to be used on a wider range of cultivars and their mixes.

Adverse effects of drug combinations and their underlying mechanisms are highly relevant for safety evaluation, but often not fully studied. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and azithromycin (AZM) were used as a combination therapy in the treatment of COVID-19 patients at the beginning of the pandemic, leading to higher complication rates in comparison to respective monotherapies. Here, we used human-induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (iPSC-CMs) to systematically investigate the effects of HCQ, AZM, and their combination on the structure and functionality of cardiomyocytes, and to better understand the underlying mechanisms. Our results demonstrate synergistic adverse effects of AZM and HCQ on electrophysiological and contractile function of iPSC-CMs. HCQ-induced prolongation of field potential duration (FPDc) was gradually increased during 7-day treatment period and was strongly enhanced by combination with AZM, although AZM alone slightly shortened FPDc in iPSC-CMs. Combined treatment with AZM and HCQ leads to higher cardiotoxicity, more severe structural disarrangement, more pronounced contractile dysfunctions, and more elevated conduction velocity, compared to respective monotreatments. Mechanistic insights underlying the synergistic effects of AZM and HCQ on iPSC-CM functionality are provided based on increased cellular accumulation of HCQ and AZM as well as increased Cx43- and Nav1.5-protein levels.

Detection of food fraud and geographical traceability of ingredients is a continually sought goal for government institutions, producers, and consumers. Herein we explore the use of non-target high-resolution mass spectrometry approaches and demonstrate its utility through a particularly challenging case study – to distinguish wheat and spelt cultivars. By employing a data-independent acquisition (DIA) approach for sample measurement, the spectra are of considerable size and complexity. We utilize artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms (artificial neural networks) to evaluate the extensive proteomic footprint of several wheat and spelt cultivars. The AI model thus obtained is used to classify newer varieties of spelt, processed flour, and bread samples. Additionally, we discuss the validation of such a method coupling DIA and AI approaches. The novel framework for method validation enables calculation of precision parameters for facile comparison of the discriminatory power of the method and in the development of a reliable decision rule.

Zusammenfassung Für das Datenmanagement bei Messungen der Oberflächenplasmonresonanz (SPR) wurden neue mathematische Verfahren entwickelt und in die eigens entwickelte Software SPRING integriert. Die Software ermöglicht eine Auswertung von SPR-Messdaten und liefert statistisch abgesicherte Aussagen zur Charakterisierung molekularer Interaktionen. Versuchsparameter, Sensorgramme und die statistische Bewertung werden in einem umfangreichen Report zur Verfügung gestellt.