The genus of Nitraria L. are Tertiary-relict desert sand-fixing plants, which are an important forage and agricultural product, as well as an important source of medicinal and woody vegetable oil. In order to provide a theoretical basis for better protection and utilization of species in the Nitraria L., this study collected global distribution information within the Nitraria L., along with data on 29 environmental and climatic factors. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the globally suitable distribution areas for Nitraria L. The results showed that the mean AUC value was 0.897, the TSS average value was 0.913, and the model prediction results were excellent. UV-B seasonality (UVB-2), UV-B of the lowest month (UVB-4), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), the DEM (Digital Elevation Model), and annual precipitation (bio12) were the key variables affecting the distribution area of Nitraria L, with contributions of 54.4%, 11.1%, 8.3%, 7.4%, and 4.1%, respectively. The Nitraria L. plants are currently found mainly in Central Asia, North Africa, the neighboring Middle East, and parts of southern Australia and Siberia. In future scenarios, except for a small expansion of the 2030s scenario model Nitraria L., the potential suitable distribution areas showed a decreasing trend. The contraction area is mainly concentrated in South Asia, such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, North Africa, Libya, as well as in areas of low suitability in northern Australia, where there was also significant shrinkage. The areas of expansion are mainly concentrated in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau to the Iranian plateau, and the Sahara Desert is also partly expanded. With rising Greenhouse gas concentrations, habitat fragmentation is becoming more severe. Center-of-mass migration results also suggest that the potential suitable area of Nitraria L. will shift northwestward in the future. This study can provide a theoretical basis for determining the scope of Nitraria L. habitat protection, population restoration, resource management and industrial development in local areas.

The genus of Prunus subg. Amygdalus are endangered Tertiary-relict plants that are an essential source of woody plant oil. In order to provide a theoretical basis for better protection and utilization of species in the Prunus subg. Amygdalus. This study collected global distribution information for six species within the Prunus subg. Amygdalus, along with data on 29 environmental and climatic factors. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the globally suitable distribution areas for these species within the subgenus. The suitable results showed that the area under the test curve (AUC) values of the simulation results were more than 0.8, indicating that the simulation results have high accuracy. Temperature, precipitation, UV-B, and altitude were critical environmental factors affecting the distribution of each species in Prunus subg. Amygdalus. Currently, the distribution area of six species in this genus, from largest to smallest, is Prunus triloba (Lindl.) Ricker, Prunus tenella Batsch, Prunus amygdalus Batsch, Prunus pedunculata Maxim, Prunus mongolica Maxim and Prunus tangutica (Batal.) Korsh. The simulation results of distribution areas showed that under the ssp2.45 and ssp5.85 scenarios, the potential distribution areas of P. amygdalus, P. tangutica, and P. pedunculata all show a decreasing trend, while the distribution areas of P. mongolica and P. tenella, and P. triloba exhibit an increasing trend. The general distribution of P. amygdalus, P. mongolica, and P. tenella will trend to transfer in a northwest direction. P. tangutica and P. pedunculata were affected by other environmental factors (such as slope, altitude, and soil pH), and the distribution area has a tendency to move northeastward. The P. triloba moved to the southwest. The spatiotemporal distribution patterns of Prunus subg. Amygdalus can be used as a reference for forest management and to formulate species conservation strategies.

Foxtail Millet ( Setaria italica ) is one of China’s earliest domesticated cereal crops and remains important for dryland farming, germplasm conservation, and climate-resilient agriculture. However, climate warming and altered precipitation regimes may reshape its agroclimatic suitability and challenge traditional production regions. Here, we integrated 1, 948 cleaned occurrence records with climatic, topographic, soil, and UV-B radiation variables, and used the biomod2 ensemble species distribution modelling framework to predict the potential suitable distribution of S. italica across China. Projections were conducted under the historical baseline and CMIP6 BCC-CSM2-MR future climate scenarios for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 across the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. The selected EMwmeanByTSS ensemble showed good discrimination ability and acceptable predictive performance, with validation ROC and TSS values of 0.863 ± 0.011 and 0.581 ± 0.022, respectively. Annual precipitation (bio12, 29.61%), elevation (elev, 28.07%), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio06, 14.23%), and UV-B seasonality (uvb2, 10.93%) were the dominant predictors, jointly contributing 82.82%. Under the historical baseline, the total potential suitable area was 4.09 × 10 ⁶ km² (44.22% of China’s land area), with highly suitable areas concentrated in the North China Plain, eastern Loess Plateau, and southern margin of Northeast China. Under future SSP scenarios, the total suitable area increased to 4.29 × 10 ⁶ – 4.87 × 10 ⁶ km², representing a 4.77%–18.87% increase. Expansion was mainly projected along the northern and peripheral margins of the current suitable region, while contraction occurred along southern, southwestern, and transitional margins. The suitability centroid shifted slightly northward to northwestward from northern Henan toward southern–central Shanxi, with net displacement of 113.33–232.79 km by the 2090s. Overall, future suitability is projected to show a pattern of stable core areas, marginal expansion, localized contraction, and limited centroid migration. These findings provide a spatial basis for stable production-region protection, regional variety trials, germplasm conservation, and climate-adaptive dryland agricultural planning.