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One of the major barriers to climate communication is that climate change is often presented to the public in such a way that impacts seem distant in time. To improve how climate change resonates with people, we propose a simple indicator: how many extreme events (hot days and heavy precipitation days) are grandchildren projected to experience that their grandparents will not experience in their lives? We analyse the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble. During grandchildren's lifetime (2020–2100) under the shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5-8.5), in some tropical regions, they are projected to experience >1000 hot days and >5 heavy precipitation days breaking records set in their grandparents' lifetime until 2040. These numbers of unprecedented hot days and heavy precipitation days under SSP5-8.5 are greater in countries with lower CO2 emissions and income per capita than in countries with higher CO2 emissions and income per capita. We show that not only the numbers of unprecedented hot days and heavy precipitation days but also their unevenness across countries can be significantly lowered in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, which is consistent with the 2 °C goal of the Paris Agreement. This new approach would help adults easily understand how their climate change mitigation efforts could decrease the unprecedented extreme events during youths' lifetime and reduce the intergenerational and intragenerational inequalities regarding extreme events.
Hideo Shiogama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuko Kameyama; Seita Emori. How many hot days and heavy precipitation days will grandchildren experience that break the records set in their grandparents’ lives? Environmental Research Communications 2021, 3, 061002 .
AMA StyleHideo Shiogama, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuko Kameyama, Seita Emori. How many hot days and heavy precipitation days will grandchildren experience that break the records set in their grandparents’ lives? Environmental Research Communications. 2021; 3 (6):061002.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHideo Shiogama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuko Kameyama; Seita Emori. 2021. "How many hot days and heavy precipitation days will grandchildren experience that break the records set in their grandparents’ lives?" Environmental Research Communications 3, no. 6: 061002.
Globally, many parts of fire emissions are driven by deforestation. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate deforestation and vegetation degradation fires (DDF) and predict how they will change in the future. In this study, we expanded a fire model used in the Community Land Model to reflect the diverse causes of DDF. This enabled us to differentiate DDFs by cause (climate change, wood harvesting, and cropland, pastureland, and urban land‐use changes) and seasonality. We then predicted the state of fire regimes in the 2050s and 2090s under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. Our results indicate that the area affected by global total fires will decrease from the current 452 to 211–378 Mha yr−1 in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and to 184–333 Mha yr−1 under RCP 2.6, mainly due to socioeconomic factors such as population and economic growth. We also predict that DDF will decrease from the current 73 million hectares per year (Mha yr−1) to 54–66 Mha yr−1 in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and 46–55 Mha yr−1 under RCP 2.6. The main contributor to these decreases in DDF burned area was climate change, especially the increasing of precipitation. The impact of future land use change on future DDF was similar or slightly lower than present‐day. South America, Indonesia, and Australia were identified as high‐risk regions for future DDF, mainly due to the expansion of wood harvest and pastureland. Appropriate land and fire management policies will be needed to reduce future fire damage in these areas.
C. Y. Park; K. Takahashi; J. Takakura; F. Li; S. Fujimori; T. Hasegawa; A. Ito; D. K. Lee. How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity? Earth's Future 2021, 9, 1 .
AMA StyleC. Y. Park, K. Takahashi, J. Takakura, F. Li, S. Fujimori, T. Hasegawa, A. Ito, D. K. Lee. How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity? Earth's Future. 2021; 9 (5):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Y. Park; K. Takahashi; J. Takakura; F. Li; S. Fujimori; T. Hasegawa; A. Ito; D. K. Lee. 2021. "How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity?" Earth's Future 9, no. 5: 1.
The average household size in China has declined over the past few decades and will continue to drop, which leads to a loss of scale economies. Its implications for electricity demand and sustainability could be especially profound because of the high ecological/environmental intensity of electricity in China and the expected boom in demand. Using nationally representative household survey panels from 2010 to 2016, we identified substantial household scale economies in electricity consumption. Specifically, reducing household size by one incurs a 17.0–23.6% increase in consumption. We further assessed the ecological/environmental implications in China. CO2 emission, water withdrawal, smoke ash emission, SO2 emission, NOx emission, and industrial wastewater discharge were found to increase with a smaller household size. For example, a household size reduction of 0.5 (to 2.5 members) by 2030–2035 could result in a 0.5% increase in CO2 emission and a 0.3% increase in water withdrawal as compared with the levels in 2015. The increase in CO2 emission is almost equal to the entire emissions of Portugal. It is therefore essential to incorporate scale effect into energy demand projections and sustainability assessments. The results also highlight the urgency in transitioning to cleaner energy since household size shrinkage is occurring globally.
Wenchao Wu; Yuko Kanamori; Runsen Zhang; Qian Zhou; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Toshihiko Masui. Implications of declining household economies of scale on electricity consumption and sustainability in China. Ecological Economics 2021, 184, 106981 .
AMA StyleWenchao Wu, Yuko Kanamori, Runsen Zhang, Qian Zhou, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Toshihiko Masui. Implications of declining household economies of scale on electricity consumption and sustainability in China. Ecological Economics. 2021; 184 ():106981.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWenchao Wu; Yuko Kanamori; Runsen Zhang; Qian Zhou; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Toshihiko Masui. 2021. "Implications of declining household economies of scale on electricity consumption and sustainability in China." Ecological Economics 184, no. : 106981.
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use (AFOLU) are thought to play a vital role in long-term GHG emissions reduction, especially for their importance in non-CO2 emissions, bioenergy supply and carbon sequestration realized by afforestation. Several studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation on food security, due to food price increases, but these studies have not disaggregated the individual aspects of land-related emissions mitigation that impact food security. Here, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production, and afforestation—change the food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate stabilization scenarios, using six global agro-economic models. The results show that afforestation, often implemented in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks, causes the largest impacts on food security, followed by non-CO2 emissions policies, generally implemented as emissions taxes. Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050. This study highlights the need for better coordination of emissions reduction and agricultural market management policy.
Shinichiro Fujimori; Wenchao Wu; Jonathan Doelman; Stefan Frank; Jordan Hristov; Page Kyle; Ronald Sands; Willem-Jan Van Zeist; Petr Havlík; Ignacio Pérez Domínguez; Amarendra Sahoo; Elke Stehfest; Andrzej Tabeau; Hugo Valin; Hans Van Meijl; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi. Impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural market and food security. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Wenchao Wu, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Jordan Hristov, Page Kyle, Ronald Sands, Willem-Jan Van Zeist, Petr Havlík, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, Amarendra Sahoo, Elke Stehfest, Andrzej Tabeau, Hugo Valin, Hans Van Meijl, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi. Impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural market and food security. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Wenchao Wu; Jonathan Doelman; Stefan Frank; Jordan Hristov; Page Kyle; Ronald Sands; Willem-Jan Van Zeist; Petr Havlík; Ignacio Pérez Domínguez; Amarendra Sahoo; Elke Stehfest; Andrzej Tabeau; Hugo Valin; Hans Van Meijl; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi. 2021. "Impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural market and food security." , no. : 1.
Synergies and trade-offs exist between climate mitigation actions and target indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Some studies have assessed such relationships, but the degree of such interaction remains poorly understood. Here, we show the SDG implications associated with CO2 emissions reductions. We developed "marginal SDG-emissions-reduction values (MSVs)", which represent the marginal impacts on SDG indicators caused by a unit CO2 emissions reduction. This metric is applicable to national assessments and was applied to Asia. We found clear relationships between CO2 emissions reduction rates and many SDG targets. For instance, 1% reduction of CO2 can avoid 0.57% of air pollution-related premature deaths (SDG3), whereas the mean species richness (SDG15) is decreased by 0.026% with the same reduction (not including climate change impacts). Our findings are useful for assessing the SDG implications associated with CO2 emissions reduction targets, which will help inform national climate policies. We note that climate change impacts are not taken into account but adding this factor may change the MSVs.
Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Hancheng Dai; Jing-Yu Liu; Haruka Ohashi; Yang Xie; Yanxu Zhang; Tetsuya Matsui; Yasuaki Hijioka. Measuring the sustainable development implications of climate change mitigation. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 15, 085004 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Hancheng Dai, Jing-Yu Liu, Haruka Ohashi, Yang Xie, Yanxu Zhang, Tetsuya Matsui, Yasuaki Hijioka. Measuring the sustainable development implications of climate change mitigation. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 15 (8):085004.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Hancheng Dai; Jing-Yu Liu; Haruka Ohashi; Yang Xie; Yanxu Zhang; Tetsuya Matsui; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2020. "Measuring the sustainable development implications of climate change mitigation." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 8: 085004.
Coastal areas provide important services and functions for social and economic activities. Damage due to sea level rise (SLR) is one of the serious problems anticipated and caused by climate change. In this study, we assess the global economic impact of inundation due to SLR by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates detailed coastal damage information. The scenario analysis considers multiple general circulation models, socioeconomic assumptions, and stringency of climate change mitigation measures. We found that the global household consumption loss proportion will be 0.045%, with a range of 0.027−0.066%, in 2100. Socioeconomic assumptions cause a difference in the loss proportion of up to 0.035% without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation, the so-called baseline scenarios. The range of the loss proportion among GHG emission scenarios is smaller than the differences among the socioeconomic assumptions. We also observed large regional variations and, in particular, the consumption losses in low-income countries are, relatively speaking, larger than those in high-income countries. These results indicate that, even if we succeed in stabilizing the global mean temperature increase below 2 °C, economic losses caused by SLR will inevitably happen to some extent, which may imply that keeping the global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C would be worthwhile to consider.
Osamu Nishiura; Makoto Tamura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Junya Takakura; Yasuaki Hijioka. An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3737 .
AMA StyleOsamu Nishiura, Makoto Tamura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Junya Takakura, Yasuaki Hijioka. An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (9):3737.
Chicago/Turabian StyleOsamu Nishiura; Makoto Tamura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Junya Takakura; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2020. "An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways." Sustainability 12, no. 9: 3737.
Hayek, M. N., McDermid, S. P. & Jamieson, D. W. An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0766-4 (2020). Hasegawa, T. et al. Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 699–703 (2018). Müller, C. & Robertson, R. D. Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling. Agric. Econ. 45, 37–50 (2014). Tai, A. P. K., Martin, M. V. & Heald, C. L. Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 817–821 (2014). Clarke, L. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) Ch. 6 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014). Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A. & van Meijl, H. Making the Paris Agreement climate targets consistent with food security objectives. Glob. Food Sec. 23, 93–103 (2019). Download references T.H., S.F., K.T. and J.T. acknowledge support from the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund 2-2002 of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant no. 19K24387) and the Sumitomo Foundation. B.L.B. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement nos. 776479 (COACCH) and 821010 (CASCADES)). T.H. led the writing of this Matters Arising, and all authors contributed to the development and finalization of the text. Correspondence to Tomoko Hasegawa. The views expressed by the authors may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission or the other institutions involved. Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Chengcheng Fei and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Reprints and Permissions Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Havlík, P. et al. Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0767-3 Download citation Received: 07 September 2019 Accepted: 30 March 2020 Published: 30 April 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0767-3
Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Petr Havlik; Hugo Valin; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Jonathan C. Doelman; Thomas Fellmann; Page Kyle; Jason F. L. Koopman; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Daniel Mason-D’Croz; Christoph Müller; Yuki Ochi; Ignacio Pérez Domínguez; Elke Stehfest; Timothy B. Sulser; Andrzej Tabeau; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Jun’Ya Takakura; Hans van Meijl; Willem-Jan Van Zeist; Keith Wiebe; Peter Witzke. Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation. Nature Climate Change 2020, 10, 420 -421.
AMA StyleTomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Petr Havlik, Hugo Valin, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan C. Doelman, Thomas Fellmann, Page Kyle, Jason F. L. Koopman, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Christoph Müller, Yuki Ochi, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, Elke Stehfest, Timothy B. Sulser, Andrzej Tabeau, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Jun’Ya Takakura, Hans van Meijl, Willem-Jan Van Zeist, Keith Wiebe, Peter Witzke. Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation. Nature Climate Change. 2020; 10 (5):420-421.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Petr Havlik; Hugo Valin; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Jonathan C. Doelman; Thomas Fellmann; Page Kyle; Jason F. L. Koopman; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Daniel Mason-D’Croz; Christoph Müller; Yuki Ochi; Ignacio Pérez Domínguez; Elke Stehfest; Timothy B. Sulser; Andrzej Tabeau; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Jun’Ya Takakura; Hans van Meijl; Willem-Jan Van Zeist; Keith Wiebe; Peter Witzke. 2020. "Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation." Nature Climate Change 10, no. 5: 420-421.
The annual globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to reach 550 ppm around 2050 unless measures are taken to mitigate its increase. Field experiments suggest that the nutrient contents of food crops are decreased substantially under elevated carbon dioxide conditions, which will lead to additional nutritional consequences on top of those related to the expected reductions of crop yield. Global modeling studies have suggested that such impacts would lead to a marked increase in the prevalence of nutrient deficiency. By using individual-level dietary survey data for Chinese adults, we conducted a comprehensive analysis on the nutritional consequence under the 550-ppm carbon dioxide scenario, with paying special attention to the distributional impact of nutrition degradation on different income groups. Our results suggest that the Chinese adult population would ingest around 2.17–4.75% less protein, iron, and zinc, and consequently, the prevalence of nutrient deficiency would increase by 1.35–4.42%. We also found a significant disparity in the nutrient loss rate and risk of deficiency among income groups: nutrient loss rates for the lowest-income group were 1.37–1.54 times greater than those for the highest-income group. Thus, the lowest-income group would experience a more considerable increase of nutrient deficiency risk under the 550-ppm carbon dioxide scenario. Moreover, we found that in the lower-income group nutrient intake for all three nutrients would be reduced simultaneously, which would leave this population more vulnerable to nutritional health risks. Our study revealed a marked inequality in the impact of the elevation of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Nutrition intervention policies explicitly targeting affected populations must be explored to achieve social equality under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Wenchao Wu; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Lin Zhou; Shaosheng Jin. Income inequality and the distributional effects of elevated carbon dioxide on dietary nutrient deficiency. Journal of Cleaner Production 2020, 265, 121606 .
AMA StyleWenchao Wu, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Lin Zhou, Shaosheng Jin. Income inequality and the distributional effects of elevated carbon dioxide on dietary nutrient deficiency. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2020; 265 ():121606.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWenchao Wu; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Lin Zhou; Shaosheng Jin. 2020. "Income inequality and the distributional effects of elevated carbon dioxide on dietary nutrient deficiency." Journal of Cleaner Production 265, no. : 121606.
Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.
Henrique Miguel Pereira; Isabel M.D. Rosa; Ines Santos Martins; Hyejin Kim; Paul Leadley; Alexander Popp; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; George Hurtt; Peter Anthoni; Almut Arneth; Daniele Baisero; Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer; Louise Chini; Fulvio Di Fulvio; Moreno Di Marco; Simon Ferrier; Shinichiro Fujimori; Carlos A. Guerra; Michael Brian James Harfoot; Thomas D. Harwood; Tomoko Hasegawa; Vanessa Haverd; Petr Havlik; Stefanie Hellweg; Jelle P. Hilbers; Samantha L. L. Hill; Akiko Hirata; Andrew J. Hoskins; Florian Humpenoeder; Jan H. Janse; Walter Jetz; Justin A. Johnson; Andreas J Krause; David LeClere; Tetsuya Matsui; Johan R. Meijer; Cory Merow; Michael Obsersteiner; Haruka Ohashi; Benjamin Poulter; Andy Purvis; Benjamin Quesada; Carlo Rondinini; Aafke M. Schipper; Josef Settele; Richard Sharp; Elke Stehfest; Bernardo B. N. Strassburg; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Matthew V. Talluto; Wilfried Thuiller; Nicolas Titeux; Piero Visconti; Christopher Ware; Florian Wolf; Rob Alkemade. Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleHenrique Miguel Pereira, Isabel M.D. Rosa, Ines Santos Martins, Hyejin Kim, Paul Leadley, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, George Hurtt, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Carlos A. Guerra, Michael Brian James Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlik, Stefanie Hellweg, Jelle P. Hilbers, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Florian Humpenoeder, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas J Krause, David LeClere, Tetsuya Matsui, Johan R. Meijer, Cory Merow, Michael Obsersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Josef Settele, Richard Sharp, Elke Stehfest, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Matthew V. Talluto, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, Rob Alkemade. Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHenrique Miguel Pereira; Isabel M.D. Rosa; Ines Santos Martins; Hyejin Kim; Paul Leadley; Alexander Popp; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; George Hurtt; Peter Anthoni; Almut Arneth; Daniele Baisero; Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer; Louise Chini; Fulvio Di Fulvio; Moreno Di Marco; Simon Ferrier; Shinichiro Fujimori; Carlos A. Guerra; Michael Brian James Harfoot; Thomas D. Harwood; Tomoko Hasegawa; Vanessa Haverd; Petr Havlik; Stefanie Hellweg; Jelle P. Hilbers; Samantha L. L. Hill; Akiko Hirata; Andrew J. Hoskins; Florian Humpenoeder; Jan H. Janse; Walter Jetz; Justin A. Johnson; Andreas J Krause; David LeClere; Tetsuya Matsui; Johan R. Meijer; Cory Merow; Michael Obsersteiner; Haruka Ohashi; Benjamin Poulter; Andy Purvis; Benjamin Quesada; Carlo Rondinini; Aafke M. Schipper; Josef Settele; Richard Sharp; Elke Stehfest; Bernardo B. N. Strassburg; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Matthew V. Talluto; Wilfried Thuiller; Nicolas Titeux; Piero Visconti; Christopher Ware; Florian Wolf; Rob Alkemade. 2020. "Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050." , no. : 1.
More than half of the world’s population currently live in urban areas and are particularly at risk from the combined effects of the urban heat island phenomenon and heat increases due to climate change. Here, by using remotely sensed surface temperature data and social-ecological indicators, focusing on the hot dry season, and applying the risk framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we assessed the current heat health risk in 139 Philippine cities, which account for about 40% of the country’s total population. The cities at high or very high risk are found in Metro Manila, where levels of heat hazard and exposure are high. The most vulnerable cities are, however, found mainly outside the national capital region, where sensitivity is higher and capacity to cope and adapt is lower. Cities with high levels of heat vulnerability and exposure must be prioritized for adaptation. Our results will contribute to risk profiling in the Philippines and to the understanding of city-level heat health risks in developing regions of the Asia-Pacific.
Ronald C. Estoque; Makoto Ooba; Xerxes Seposo; Takuya Togawa; Yasuaki Hijioka; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Shogo Nakamura. Heat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators. Nature Communications 2020, 11, 1 -12.
AMA StyleRonald C. Estoque, Makoto Ooba, Xerxes Seposo, Takuya Togawa, Yasuaki Hijioka, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shogo Nakamura. Heat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators. Nature Communications. 2020; 11 (1):1-12.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRonald C. Estoque; Makoto Ooba; Xerxes Seposo; Takuya Togawa; Yasuaki Hijioka; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Shogo Nakamura. 2020. "Heat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators." Nature Communications 11, no. 1: 1-12.
Limiting the magnitude of climate change via stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is necessary to prevent further biodiversity loss. However, some strategies to mitigate GHG emission involve greater land-based mitigation efforts, which may cause biodiversity loss from land-use changes. Here we estimate how climate and land-based mitigation efforts interact with global biodiversity by using an integrated assessment model framework to project potential habitat for five major taxonomic groups. We find that stringent GHG mitigation can generally bring a net benefit to global biodiversity even if land-based mitigation is adopted. This trend is strengthened in the latter half of this century. In contrast, some regions projected to experience much growth in land-based mitigation efforts (i.e., Europe and Oceania) are expected to suffer biodiversity loss. Our results support the enactment of stringent GHG mitigation policies in terms of biodiversity. To conserve local biodiversity, however, these policies must be carefully designed in conjunction with land-use regulations and societal transformation in order to minimize the conversion of natural habitats.
Haruka Ohashi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Akiko Hirata; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Ikutaro Tsuyama; Katsuhiro Nakao; Yuji Kominami; Nobuyuki Tanaka; Yasuaki Hijioka; Tetsuya Matsui. Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation. Nature Communications 2019, 10, 5240 .
AMA StyleHaruka Ohashi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Akiko Hirata, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Ikutaro Tsuyama, Katsuhiro Nakao, Yuji Kominami, Nobuyuki Tanaka, Yasuaki Hijioka, Tetsuya Matsui. Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation. Nature Communications. 2019; 10 (1):5240.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHaruka Ohashi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Akiko Hirata; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Ikutaro Tsuyama; Katsuhiro Nakao; Yuji Kominami; Nobuyuki Tanaka; Yasuaki Hijioka; Tetsuya Matsui. 2019. "Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation." Nature Communications 10, no. 1: 5240.
Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2ºC and 1.5ºC global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyse large ensembles of 2ºC and 1.5ºC warming simulations. In the 2ºC runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2ºC warming. The regions with large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC, compared to 2ºC, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.
Hideo Shiogama; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Daisuke Murakami; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Katsumasa Tanaka; Seita Emori; Izumi Kubota; Manabu Abe; Yukiko Imada; Masahiro Watanabe; Daniel Mitchell; Nathalie Schaller; Jana Sillmann; Erich M Fischer; John F Scinocca; Ingo Bethke; Ludwig Lierhammer; Jun'ya Takakura; Tim Trautmann; Petra Doell; Sebastian Ostberg; Hannes Müller Schmied; Fahad Saeed; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 14, 124022 .
AMA StyleHideo Shiogama, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Daisuke Murakami, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Katsumasa Tanaka, Seita Emori, Izumi Kubota, Manabu Abe, Yukiko Imada, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, Nathalie Schaller, Jana Sillmann, Erich M Fischer, John F Scinocca, Ingo Bethke, Ludwig Lierhammer, Jun'ya Takakura, Tim Trautmann, Petra Doell, Sebastian Ostberg, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fahad Saeed, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 14 (12):124022.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHideo Shiogama; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Daisuke Murakami; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Katsumasa Tanaka; Seita Emori; Izumi Kubota; Manabu Abe; Yukiko Imada; Masahiro Watanabe; Daniel Mitchell; Nathalie Schaller; Jana Sillmann; Erich M Fischer; John F Scinocca; Ingo Bethke; Ludwig Lierhammer; Jun'ya Takakura; Tim Trautmann; Petra Doell; Sebastian Ostberg; Hannes Müller Schmied; Fahad Saeed; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner. 2019. "Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 12: 124022.
There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change1, arising from uncertainties in the climate response2, the climate change mitigation pathway3 and the socioeconomic development pathway4. Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors. Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources. Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6.6% (3.9–8.6%) of global gross domestic product at the end of this century, the pathways with stringent mitigation would limit the impact to around or less than 1%. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response.
Jun’Ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Naota Hanasaki; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yukiko Hirabayashi; Yasushi Honda; Toshichika Iizumi; Naoko Kumano; Chan Park; Zhihong Shen; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Makoto Tamura; Masahiro Tanoue; Koujiro Tsuchida; Hiromune Yokoki; Qian Zhou; Taikan Oki; Yasuaki Hijioka. Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways. Nature Climate Change 2019, 9, 737 -741.
AMA StyleJun’Ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yasushi Honda, Toshichika Iizumi, Naoko Kumano, Chan Park, Zhihong Shen, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Makoto Tamura, Masahiro Tanoue, Koujiro Tsuchida, Hiromune Yokoki, Qian Zhou, Taikan Oki, Yasuaki Hijioka. Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways. Nature Climate Change. 2019; 9 (10):737-741.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJun’Ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Naota Hanasaki; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yukiko Hirabayashi; Yasushi Honda; Toshichika Iizumi; Naoko Kumano; Chan Park; Zhihong Shen; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Makoto Tamura; Masahiro Tanoue; Koujiro Tsuchida; Hiromune Yokoki; Qian Zhou; Taikan Oki; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2019. "Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways." Nature Climate Change 9, no. 10: 737-741.
Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.
Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Volker Krey; Keywan Riahi; Christoph Bertram; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Valentina Bosetti; Jessica Callen; Jacques Després; Jonathan Doelman; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Petr Havlik; Florian Humpenöder; Jason F. L. Koopman; Hans van Meijl; Yuki Ochi; Alexander Popp; Andreas Schmitz; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Detlef Van Vuuren. A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation. Nature Sustainability 2019, 2, 386 -396.
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Valentina Bosetti, Jessica Callen, Jacques Després, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Jason F. L. Koopman, Hans van Meijl, Yuki Ochi, Alexander Popp, Andreas Schmitz, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Detlef Van Vuuren. A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation. Nature Sustainability. 2019; 2 (5):386-396.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Volker Krey; Keywan Riahi; Christoph Bertram; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Valentina Bosetti; Jessica Callen; Jacques Després; Jonathan Doelman; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Petr Havlik; Florian Humpenöder; Jason F. L. Koopman; Hans van Meijl; Yuki Ochi; Alexander Popp; Andreas Schmitz; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Detlef Van Vuuren. 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation." Nature Sustainability 2, no. 5: 386-396.
M. Gomez‐Garcia; A. Matsumura; D. Ogawada; K. Takahashi. Time Scale Decomposition of Climate and Correction of Variability Using Synthetic Samples of Stable Distributions. Water Resources Research 2019, 55, 3632 -3658.
AMA StyleM. Gomez‐Garcia, A. Matsumura, D. Ogawada, K. Takahashi. Time Scale Decomposition of Climate and Correction of Variability Using Synthetic Samples of Stable Distributions. Water Resources Research. 2019; 55 (5):3632-3658.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Gomez‐Garcia; A. Matsumura; D. Ogawada; K. Takahashi. 2019. "Time Scale Decomposition of Climate and Correction of Variability Using Synthetic Samples of Stable Distributions." Water Resources Research 55, no. 5: 3632-3658.
We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 ∘C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m−2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ∘C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
Matthew J. Gidden; Keywan Riahi; Steven J. Smith; Shinichiro Fujimori; Gunnar Luderer; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Maarten Van Den Berg; Leyang Feng; David Klein; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Mathijs Harmsen; Tomoko Hasegawa; Petr Havlik; Jérôme Hilaire; Rachel Hoesly; Jill Horing; Alexander Popp; Elke Stehfest; Kiyoshi Takahashi. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. Geoscientific Model Development 2019, 12, 1443 -1475.
AMA StyleMatthew J. Gidden, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maarten Van Den Berg, Leyang Feng, David Klein, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jérôme Hilaire, Rachel Hoesly, Jill Horing, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, Kiyoshi Takahashi. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. Geoscientific Model Development. 2019; 12 (4):1443-1475.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatthew J. Gidden; Keywan Riahi; Steven J. Smith; Shinichiro Fujimori; Gunnar Luderer; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Maarten Van Den Berg; Leyang Feng; David Klein; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Mathijs Harmsen; Tomoko Hasegawa; Petr Havlik; Jérôme Hilaire; Rachel Hoesly; Jill Horing; Alexander Popp; Elke Stehfest; Kiyoshi Takahashi. 2019. "Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century." Geoscientific Model Development 12, no. 4: 1443-1475.
Bioenergy plays an important role in low greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. Among various possible sources of bioenergy, dedicated bio‐crops could contribute to most of the potential. However, large scale bio‐crop deployment raises sustainability concerns. Policies to alleviate the pressure of bio‐crops on the terrestrial environment can affect bioenergy potential and production costs. Here, we estimated the maximum bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies (biodiversity and soil protection) and societal transformation measures from demand and supply side (demand‐side policy includes sustainable diet; supply‐side policy includes advanced technology and trade openness for food) by using an integrated assessment modelling framework, which consists of a general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE) and a spatial land use allocation model (AIM/PLUM). We found that the global advanced bioenergy potential under no policy was 245 EJ/yr and that 192 EJ/yr could be produced under US$5/GJ. These figures were 149 EJ/yr and 110 EJ/yr, respectively, under a full environmental policy. Biodiversity protection has a greater impact than soil protection due to its larger coverage and stronger implementation. Societal transformation measures effectively increase them to 186 EJ/yr and 143 EJ/yr, respectively, even under full environmental policies. These results imply that the large‐scale bioenergy deployment possibly needed for the climate target to limit the global mean temperature increase well below 2°C compared to the pre‐industrial level might face a trade‐off with environmental protection targets and that possible mitigation pathways in harmony with other environmental issues need to be explored. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Wenchao Wu; Tomoko Hasegawa; Haruka Ohashi; Naota Hanasaki; Jingyu Liu; Tetsuya Matsui; Shinichiro Fujimori; Toshihiko Masui; Kiyoshi Takahashi. Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures. GCB Bioenergy 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleWenchao Wu, Tomoko Hasegawa, Haruka Ohashi, Naota Hanasaki, Jingyu Liu, Tetsuya Matsui, Shinichiro Fujimori, Toshihiko Masui, Kiyoshi Takahashi. Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures. GCB Bioenergy. 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWenchao Wu; Tomoko Hasegawa; Haruka Ohashi; Naota Hanasaki; Jingyu Liu; Tetsuya Matsui; Shinichiro Fujimori; Toshihiko Masui; Kiyoshi Takahashi. 2019. "Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures." GCB Bioenergy , no. : 1.
Changes in the environmental heat stress need to be properly evaluated to manage the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly in the context of climate change. The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a useful index for evaluating heat stress and anticipating conditions related to heat-related illness in the present climate, but projecting the WBGT with a sufficiently high temporal and spatial resolution remains challenging for future climate conditions. In this study, we developed a methodological framework for estimating the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT based on the output of general circulation models using only simple calculations. The method was applied to six sites in Japan and its performance was evaluated. The proposed method could reproduce the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT with a high accuracy. Based on the developed framework, we constructed future (2090s) projections under two different greenhouse gas emission pathways. These projections showed a consistent rise in the WBGT and thus the capacity to perform physically demanding activities is expected to decrease. To demonstrate the usefulness of the projected WBGT in planning adaptation measures, we identified the optimal working schedules which would minimize outdoor workers’ exposure to heat at a specific site. The results show that a substantial shift in the working time is required in the future if outdoor workers are to compensate the effect of increased heat exposure only by changing their working hours. This methodological framework and the projections will provide local practitioners with useful information to manage the increased risk of heat stress under climate change.
Jun’Ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka; Yasushi Honda. Site-specific hourly resolution wet bulb globe temperature reconstruction from gridded daily resolution climate variables for planning climate change adaptation measures. International Journal of Biometeorology 2019, 63, 787 -800.
AMA StyleJun’Ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuaki Hijioka, Yasushi Honda. Site-specific hourly resolution wet bulb globe temperature reconstruction from gridded daily resolution climate variables for planning climate change adaptation measures. International Journal of Biometeorology. 2019; 63 (6):787-800.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJun’Ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka; Yasushi Honda. 2019. "Site-specific hourly resolution wet bulb globe temperature reconstruction from gridded daily resolution climate variables for planning climate change adaptation measures." International Journal of Biometeorology 63, no. 6: 787-800.
It is now widely recognized that climate change affects multiple sectors in virtually every part of the world. Impacts on one sector may influence other sectors, including seemingly remote ones, which we call “interconnections of climate risks.” While a substantial number of climate risks are identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there have been few attempts to explore the interconnections between them in a comprehensive way. To fill this gap, we developed a methodology for visualizing climate risks and their interconnections based on a literature survey. Our visualizations highlight the need to address climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. Our risk maps and flowcharts show how changes in climate impact natural and socio‐economic systems, ultimately affecting human security, health, and well‐being. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. Our methodology can be used as a communication tool to inform decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public of the cascading risks that can be triggered by climate change.
T. Yokohata; K. Tanaka; K. Nishina; K. Takahashi; S. Emori; M. Kiguchi; Y. Iseri; Y. Honda; M. Okada; Y. Masaki; Akitomo Yamamoto; M. Shigemitsu; M. Yoshimori; T. Sueyoshi; K. Iwase; N. Hanasaki; A. Ito; G. Sakurai; T. Iizumi; M. Nishimori; W. H. Lim; C. Miyazaki; A. Okamoto; S. Kanae; T. Oki. Visualizing the Interconnections Among Climate Risks. Earth's Future 2019, 7, 85 -100.
AMA StyleT. Yokohata, K. Tanaka, K. Nishina, K. Takahashi, S. Emori, M. Kiguchi, Y. Iseri, Y. Honda, M. Okada, Y. Masaki, Akitomo Yamamoto, M. Shigemitsu, M. Yoshimori, T. Sueyoshi, K. Iwase, N. Hanasaki, A. Ito, G. Sakurai, T. Iizumi, M. Nishimori, W. H. Lim, C. Miyazaki, A. Okamoto, S. Kanae, T. Oki. Visualizing the Interconnections Among Climate Risks. Earth's Future. 2019; 7 (2):85-100.
Chicago/Turabian StyleT. Yokohata; K. Tanaka; K. Nishina; K. Takahashi; S. Emori; M. Kiguchi; Y. Iseri; Y. Honda; M. Okada; Y. Masaki; Akitomo Yamamoto; M. Shigemitsu; M. Yoshimori; T. Sueyoshi; K. Iwase; N. Hanasaki; A. Ito; G. Sakurai; T. Iizumi; M. Nishimori; W. H. Lim; C. Miyazaki; A. Okamoto; S. Kanae; T. Oki. 2019. "Visualizing the Interconnections Among Climate Risks." Earth's Future 7, no. 2: 85-100.
Climate change increases workers’ exposure to heat stress. To prevent heat‐related illnesses, according to occupational‐health recommendations, labor capacity must be reduced. However, this preventive measure is expected to be costly, and the costs are likely to rise as the scale and scope of climate change impacts increase over time. Shifting the start of the working day to earlier in the morning could be an effective adaptation measure for avoiding the impacts of labor capacity reduction. However, the plausibility and efficacy of such an intervention have never been quantitatively assessed. Here we investigate whether working time shifts can offset the economic impacts of labor capacity reduction due to climate change. Incorporating a temporally (one‐hour) and spatially (0.5°×0.5°) high‐resolution heat exposure index into an integrated assessment model, we calculated the working time shift necessary to offset labor capacity reduction and economic loss under hypothetical with‐ and without‐realistic‐adaptation scenarios. The results of a normative scenario analysis indicated that a global average shift of 5.7 (4.0‐6.1) hours is required, assuming extreme climate conditions in the 2090s. Although a realistic (< three hours) shift nearly halves the economic cost, a substantial cost corresponding to 1.6% (1.0‐2.4%) of global total gross domestic product is expected to remain. In contrast, if stringent climate‐change mitigation is achieved, a realistic shift limits the remaining cost to 0.14% (0.12‐0.47%) of global total gross domestic product. Although shifting working time is shown to be effective as an adaptation measure, climate‐change mitigation remains indispensable to minimize the impact.
Jun'ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yasushi Honda; Naota Hanasaki; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. Limited Role of Working Time Shift in Offsetting the Increasing Occupational‐Health Cost of Heat Exposure. Earth's Future 2018, 6, 1588 -1602.
AMA StyleJun'ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yasushi Honda, Naota Hanasaki, Yasuaki Hijioka, Toshihiko Masui. Limited Role of Working Time Shift in Offsetting the Increasing Occupational‐Health Cost of Heat Exposure. Earth's Future. 2018; 6 (11):1588-1602.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJun'ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yasushi Honda; Naota Hanasaki; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. 2018. "Limited Role of Working Time Shift in Offsetting the Increasing Occupational‐Health Cost of Heat Exposure." Earth's Future 6, no. 11: 1588-1602.