The study examined the effect of exchange rate and inflation on stock market returns in Ghana using monthly inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the Bank of Ghana and monthly market returns computed from the GSE all-share index from January 2000 to December 2013. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model were used for examining this effect. The ARDL and its corresponding error correction model were used in establishing the long- and short-run relationship between the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The result of the study showed that there exists a significant long-run relationship between GSE market returns and inflation. However, no significant short-run relationship between them existed. The result also showed a significant long- and short-run relationship between GSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for long memory and it was observed that such property did exist in these variables, making it a desirable feature of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.
4 March 2019 in Journal of Probability and Statistics
In this paper we use a statistical mechanical model as a paradigm for educational choices when the reference population is partitioned according to the socioeconomic attributes of gender and residence. We study how educational attainment is influenced by socioeconomic attributes of gender and residence for five selected developing countries. The model has a social and a private incentive part with coefficients measuring the influence individuals have on each other and the external influence on individuals, respectively. The methods of partial least squares and the ordinary least squares are, respectively, used to estimate the parameters of the interacting and the noninteracting models. This work differs from the previous work that motivated this work in the following sense: (a) the reference population is divided into subgroups with unequal subgroup sizes, (b) the proportion of individuals in each of the subgroups may depend on the population size , and (c) the method of partial least squares is used for estimating the parameters of the model with social interaction as opposed to the least squares method used in the earlier work.
26 September 2018 in International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
The research expounds the use of Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) approach and Random Utility Theory (RUT) in analyzing alternative motor insurance policy choice behaviour for drivers in Sunyani municipality in Brong-Ahafo, Ghana. We design a DCE to identify the factors (premium cost, claims settlement, customer satisfaction, and proximity) that influences an individual choice for insuring with a particular insurance company given the existence of an alternative. Probit model was used in estimating the parameters of the consideration sets of the DCE. The research sampled 100 respondents comprising mainly of private and commercial drivers. The magnitude of estimates from both probit model and estimated marginal effects indicates respondents highly value insurers with the attribute of paying claims promptly, charging moderate premium, and closer in terms of proximity. However, customer satisfaction will result in a disutility of choice of insurer. Also, the levels of customer satisfaction can be traded off for other attributes.
The Akosombo Dam is the largest dam in Ghana and is linked to the world's largest man-made lake by surface area. The top of flood control pool of the dam has been breached a number of times, so it is of interest to know the corresponding probability. The paper fits the generalized extreme value distribution to the extreme water levels – with all three of its parameters (including the shape parameter) accounting for various linear trends, seasonality and cyclic trends with respect to time, the first time such a model has been fitted. The fitted model contains in total 50 parameters. It provided an adequate fit, as evaluated by probability plots, quantile plots, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. It is used to provide return level estimates as well as probabilities of the top of flood control pool of the dam being breached.
In recent times, there have been a lot of advocacies to encourage females of all ages to pursue education to the highest level. The Government of Ghana and its stakeholders have championed this to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 4 in this regard. However, progress has been on a snail’s pace. In this study, we employed the multipopulation Curie–Weiss model to establish the influence of sociodemographic factors on the educational attainment of all females in Ghana. We utilized data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (2008 and 2014). The parameters of the interacting and noninteracting multipopulation Curie–Weiss models were estimated using the partial least squares and ordinary least squares methods, respectively. Our findings suggest that marital status, place of residence, and wealth status of females in Ghana influence their educational attainment. Therefore, to get more females of all ages to attain higher levels of education, the Government of Ghana and its stakeholders should channel their efforts towards eradicating poverty at all levels, preventing early and teenage marriages, providing better infrastructure, and creating better living conditions for all females especially those in the poorest regions of the country.
This research aims to investigate factors influencing accommodation choices using a discrete choice experiment. A probit model was used to analyse the data collected from 100 respondents using 28 choice set questions. The results indicate that accommodation facilities offering affordable prices, good safety and security facilities, together with good facilities and services, and are located within the city centre are the most preferred. Gender and income were also seen as a significant factor in accommodation choice preference. The findings provide insights into understanding the accommodation preferences of people. Implications for hoteliers and policymakers have also been discussed.