Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

During the past 20 years, organized experimental campaigns as well as continuous development and implementation of air-pollution modeling have led to significant gains in the understanding of the paths and scales of pollutant transport and transformation in the greater Mediterranean region (GMR). The work presented in this paper has two major objectives: 1) to summarize the existing knowledge on the transport paths of particulate matter (PM) in the GMR and 2) to illustrate some new findings related to the transport and transformation properties of PM in the GMR. Findings from previous studies indicate that anthropogenically produced air pollutants from European sources can be transported over long distances, reaching Africa, the Atlantic Ocean, and North America. The PM of natural origin, like Saharan dust, can be transported toward the Atlantic Ocean and North America mostly during the warm period of the year. Recent model simulations and studies in the area indicate that specific long-range transport patterns of aerosols, such as the transport from Asia and the Indian Ocean, central Africa, or America, have negligible or at best limited contribution to air-quality degradation in the GMR when compared with the other sources. Also, new findings from this work suggest that the imposed European Union limits on PM cannot be applicable for southern Europe unless the origin (natural or anthropogenic) of the PM is taken into account. The impacts of high PM levels in the GMR are not limited only to air quality, but also include serious implications for the water budget and the regional climate. These are issues that require extensive investigation because the processes involved are complex, and further model development is needed to include the relevant physicochemical processes properly.

The aerosol optical depth (AOD) trend between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from observations and results from simulations with the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite sensor, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) observations. Thanks to an additional simulation without any change in emissions, it is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the emissions, while over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological changes play a major role. Over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends. Additionally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content.

This study assesses the chemical composition and global aerosol load of the major inorganic aerosol components, focusing on mineral dust and aerosol nitrate. The mineral dust aerosol components (i.e., Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, Na⁺) and their emissions are included in the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model (EMAC). Gas/aerosol partitioning is simulated using the ISORROPIA-II thermodynamic equilibrium model that considers K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, NH₄⁺, Na⁺, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, Cl⁻, and H₂O aerosol components. Emissions of mineral dust are calculated online by taking into account the soil particle size distribution and chemical composition of different deserts worldwide. Presence of metallic ions can substantially affect the nitrate partitioning into the aerosol phase due to thermodynamic interactions. The model simulates highest fine aerosol nitrate concentration over urban and industrialized areas (1–3 µg m⁻³), while coarse aerosol nitrate is highest close to deserts (1–4 µg m⁻³). The influence of mineral dust on nitrate formation extends across southern Europe, western USA, and northeastern China. The tropospheric burden of aerosol nitrate increases by 44 % when considering interactions of nitrate with mineral dust. The calculated global average nitrate aerosol concentration near the surface increases by 36 %, while the coarse- and fine-mode concentrations of nitrate increase by 53 and 21 %, respectively. Other inorganic aerosol components are affected by reactive dust components as well (e.g., the tropospheric burden of chloride increases by 9 %, ammonium decreases by 41 %, and sulfate increases by 7 %). Sensitivity tests show that nitrate aerosol is most sensitive to the chemical composition of the emitted mineral dust, followed by the soil size distribution of dust particles, the magnitude of the mineral dust emissions, and the aerosol state assumption.

Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others). The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70–75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions). Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

This report addresses the effects of pollution on the development of precipitation in clean ("pristine") and polluted ("hazy") environments in the Eastern Mediterranean by using the Integrated Community Limited Area Modeling System (ICLAMS) (an extended version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, RAMS). The use of this model allows one to investigate the interactions of the aerosols with cloud development. The simulations show that the onset of precipitation in hazy clouds is delayed compared to pristine conditions. Adding small concentrations of GCCN to polluted clouds promotes early-stage rain. The addition of GCCN to pristine clouds has no effect on precipitation amounts. Topography was found to be more important for the distribution of precipitation than aerosol properties. Increasing by 15% the concentration of hygroscopic dust particles for a case study over the Eastern Mediterranean resulted in more vigorous convection and more intense updrafts. The clouds that were formed extended about three kilometers higher, delaying the initiation of precipitation by one hour. Prognostic treatment of the aerosol concentrations in the explicit cloud droplet nucleation scheme of the model, improved the model performance for the twenty-four hour accumulated precipitation. The spatial distribution and the amounts of precipitation were found to vary greatly between the different aerosol scenarios. These results indicate the large uncertainty that remains and the need for more accurate description of aerosol feedbacks in atmospheric models and climate change predictions.