Vegetation dieback and recovery may be dependent on the interplay between infrequent acute disturbances and underlying chronic stresses. Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to the chronic stress of sea-level rise, which may affect their susceptibility to acute disturbance events. Here, we show that a large-scale vegetation dieback in the Mississippi River Delta was precipitated by salt-water incursion during an extreme drought in the summer of 2012 and was most severe in areas exposed to greater flooding. Using 16 years of data (2007–2022) from a coastwide network of monitoring stations, we show that the impacts of the dieback lasted five years and that recovery was only partial in areas exposed to greater inundation. Dieback marshes experienced an increase in percent time flooded from 43% in 2007 to 75% in 2022 and a decline in vegetation cover and species richness over the same period. Thus, while drought-induced high salinities and soil saturation triggered a significant dieback event, the chronic increase in inundation is causing a longer-term decline in cover, more widespread losses, and reduced capacity to recover from acute stressors. Overall, our findings point to the importance of mitigating the underlying stresses to foster resilience to both acute and persistent causes of vegetation loss.

Subtidal water level and current variability in Barataria Bay—a microtidal bar‐built estuary within the Mississippi Delta—and its relation to local and remote wind forcings were analyzed using three different methods: (1) statistical analysis of in situ observations, (2) an analytical model with idealized wind field, and (3) a barotropic numerical model. Remote wind effects (i.e., the coastal water levels imposed by Ekman transport) are dominant at forcing currents at the bay mouth and thus control estuary‐shelf exchanges. In contrast, subtidal water level variability, which ranges from 0.35 m at the bay mouth to 0.55 m at the bay head, is mainly associated with local wind effects, especially at the head of the bay. This occurs because the local wind‐induced water level tilting within the bay is larger than the coastal sea level pumping, i.e., the spatially uniform variations in water levels forced by remote winds. This result contrasts with (1) most coastal plain, fjord, and tectonic estuaries and (2) with other bar‐built estuaries in the region, in which remote wind effects dominate water level variability within the estuary. These differences are due to geomorphological features unique to Barataria Bay, such as its limited estuarine‐shelf connectivity and its orientation relative to local shoreline.

Near surface wind—conventionally measured 10 m above the ground, U₁₀—is a fundamental variable for many processes acting in bays and estuaries. For practical reasons, wind in bays and estuaries is often measured at the land‐water interface, e.g., on docks, piers, and jetties. By analyzing time series of U₁₀ from 15 stations in the Mississippi Delta, Louisiana, we show that wind measurements at the land‐water interface are biased and not representative of the wind over estuarine waters. Specifically, measurements at the land‐water interface underestimate the speed of winds blowing from land, because even short (<1 km) stretches of land with large bed roughness can significantly reduce U₁₀. Wind measured next to large channels is biased not only in speed but also in direction, which tends to align with the channel axis. We suggest that very local (<1 km) variability in the boundary layer properties contributes to the large spatial variability of the measured estuarine wind field. Simple anisotropic corrections based on bed roughness should be applied to measurements made at the land‐water interface to estimate wind over adjacent estuarine waters. Alternatively, wind measured at offshore stations—even if located hundreds of km away—provide reliable estimates of estuarine wind. A more systematic use of wind measurements would likely increase the accuracy of estuarine numerical models and allow for more direct comparison between different estuarine systems.

The Loop Current frontal eddies (LCFEs) refer to cyclonic cold eddies moving downstream along the outside edge of the Loop Current in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. They have been observed by in situ measurements and satellite imagery, mostly downstream of the Campeche Bank continental shelf. Their evolution, simulated by a primitive equation ⅙° and 37-level Atlantic Ocean general circulation numerical model, is described in detail in this study. Some of the simulated LCFEs arise, with the passage through the Yucatan Channel of a Caribbean anticyclonic eddy, as weak cyclones with diameters less than 100 km near the Yucatan Channel. They then grow to fully developed eddies with diameters on the order of 150–200 km while moving along the Loop Current edge. Modeled LCFEs have a very coherent vertical structure with isotherm doming seen from 50- to ~1000-m depth. The Caribbean anticyclone and LCFE are two predominant features in this numerical model simulation, which account for 22% and 10%, respectively, of the short-term (period less than 100 days) temperature variance at 104.5 m in the complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis. The source water inside the LCFEs that are generated by Caribbean anticyclonic eddy impingement can be traced back, using a backward-in-time Lagrangian particle-tracking method, to the western edge of the Caribbean Current in the northwest Caribbean Sea and to coastal waters near the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The model results indicating a pairing of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies within and north of the Yucatan Channel are supported by satellite altimetry measurements during February 2002 when several altimeters were operational.