The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep‐sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep‐sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold‐water coral and commercially important deep‐sea fish species under present‐day (1951–2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081–2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%–100% in suitable habitat for cold‐water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep‐sea fishes of 2.0°–9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%–30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%–42% of present‐day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%–14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep‐sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area‐based planning and management tools.

Marine ecosystems are increasingly threatened by the cumulative effects of multiple human pressures. Cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) are needed to inform environmental policy and guide ecosystem-based management. Yet, CEAs are inherently complex and seldom linked to real-world management processes. Therefore we propose entrenching CEAs in a risk management process, comprising the steps of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. We provide guidance to operationalize a risk-based approach to CEAs by describing for each step guiding principles and desired outcomes, scientific challenges and practical solutions. We reviewed the treatment of uncertainty in CEAs and the contribution of different tools and data sources to the implementation of a risk based approach to CEAs. We show that a risk-based approach to CEAs decreases complexity, allows for the transparent treatment of uncertainty and streamlines the uptake of scientific outcomes into the science-policy interface. Hence, its adoption can help bridging the gap between science and decision-making in ecosystem-based management.

Significance: Biological invasions are the second most severe threat affecting biodiversity worldwide with major economic and societal impacts. Yet, the multitude of species with the potential to be invasive makes it extremely difficult to anticipate invasions to develop efficient management plans. Predicting which species are likely to become invaders and where they are likely to invade even before their introduction outside their native range has always been a prime objective of invasion biology. Based on the example of ants, we provide a profiling method to predict future invaders and future invasions, and in this manner, we identify 18 ant species likely to become new invaders and regions at risk for these invasions.

Species mapping is an essential tool for conservation programmes as it provides clear pictures of the distribution of marine resources. However, in fishery ecology, the amount of objective scientific information is limited and data may not always be directly comparable. Information about the distribution of marine species can be derived from two main sources: fishery-independent data (scientific surveys at sea) and fishery-dependent data (collection and sampling by observers in commercial vessels). The aim of this paper is to compare whether these two different sources produce similar, complementary, or different results. We compare them in the specific context of identifying the Essential Fish Habitats of three elasmobranch species (S. canicula, G. melastomus, and E. spinax). Similarity and prediction statistics are used to compare the two different spatial patterns obtained by applying the same Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach in the two sources. Results showed that the spatial patterns obtained are similar, although differences are present. In particular, models based on fishery-dependent data are better able to identify temporal relationships between the probability of presence of the species and seasonal environmental variables. In contrast, fishery-independent data better discriminate spatial locations where a species is present or absent. Besides the spatial and temporal differences of the two datasets, the consistency of habitat results highlights the inclusion in each dataset of most of the environmental envelope of each species, both in time and space. Consequently, sampling data should be adapted to each species to reasonably cover their environmental envelope, and a combination of datasets will likely provide a better habitat estimation than using each dataset independently. These findings can be useful in helping fishery managers improve definition of survey design and analyses.