Fire propagation is inevitably affected by fuel-model parameters during wildfire simulations and the uncertainty of the fuel-model parameters makes forecasting accurate fire behaviour very difficult. In this study, three different methods (Morris screening, first-order analysis and the Monte Carlo method) were used to analyse the uncertainty of fuel-model parameters with FARSITE model. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that only a few fuel-model parameters markedly influenced the uncertainty of the model outputs, and many of the fuel-model parameters had little or no effect. The fire-spread rate is the driving force behind the uncertainty of other fire behaviours. Thus, the highly uncertain fuel-model parameters associated with spread rate should be used cautiously in wildfire simulations. Monte Carlo results indicated that the relationship between model input and output was non-linear and neglecting fuel-model parameter uncertainty of the model would magnify fire behaviours. Additionally, fuel-model parameters have high input uncertainty. Therefore, fuel-model parameters must be calibrated against actual fires. The highly uncertain fuel-model parameters with high spatial-temporal variability consisted of fuel-bed depth, live-shrub loading and 1-h time-lag loading are preferentially chosen as parameters to calibrate several wildfires.

The vegetation of alpine tundra is undergoing significant changes and topography has played a significant role in mediating such changes. The roles of topography varied at different scales. In this study, we intended to identify topographic controls on tundra vegetation changes within the Changbai Mountains of Northeast China and reveal the scale effects. We delineated the vegetation changes of the last three decades using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series. We conducted a trend analysis for each pixel to reveal the spatial change and used binary logistic regression models to analyze the relationship between topographic controls at different scales and vegetation changes. Results showed that about 30% of tundra vegetation experienced a significant (p < 0.05) change in the NDVI, with 21.3% attributable to the encroachment of low-altitude plants resulting in a decrease in the NDVI, and 8.7% attributable to the expansion of tundra endemic plants resulting in an increase in the NDVI. Plant encroachment occurred more severely in low altitude than in high altitude, whereas plant expansion mostly occurred near volcanic ash fields at high altitude. We found that plant encroachment tended to occur in complex terrains and the broad-scale mountain aspect had a greater effect on plant encroachment than the fine-scale local aspect. Our results suggest that it is important to include the mountain aspect in mountain vegetation change studies, as most such studies only use the local aspect.