Climate change poses severe consequences, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty rates may escalate by 2050 without significant climate and development action. The health impacts are diverse, encompassing communicable and non-communicable diseases. Mozambique, a climate-vulnerable nation, has experienced significant natural disasters in the past 42 years, impacting its health system. This study aims to assess Mozambique’s health sector’s vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change. Following a methodology proposed by the World Health Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, a six-step vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted to conduct the Health Vulnerability Index (HVI) for Mozambique’s regions $(n=161)$. The HVI integrates historical climate, epidemiological, and socio-economic data at the district level, and was computed using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity dimensions. The results revealed spatial patterns in exposure to climate variables, extreme weather events, and variations in sensitivity and adaptive capacity across the country. The HVI mirrored the exposure findings. Notably, high vulnerability was observed in several districts, while major urban centers displayed lower vulnerability. These findings highlight the country’s vulnerability to climate change and underscore the potential for adverse impacts on livelihoods, the economy, and human health. The study provides a foundation for developing strategies and adaptation actions.

Climate change (CC) poses severe consequences, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty rates may escalate by 2050 without significant climate and development action. The health impacts are diverse, encompassing communicable and non-communicable diseases. Mozambique, a climate-vulnerable nation, has experienced significant natural disasters in the past 42 years, impacting its health system. This study aims to assess Mozambique’s health sector vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change. Following a methodology proposed by the World Health Organization and Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, a six-step vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted. The Health Vulnerability Index (HVI), integrating historical climate, epidemiological, and socio-economic data at the district level (n=162), was computed using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity dimensions. The Results revealed spatial patterns in exposure to climate variables, extreme weather events, and variations in sensitivity and adaptive capacity across the country. The HVI mirrored the exposure findings. Notably, high vulnerability was observed in several districts, while major urban centers displayed lower vulnerability. These findings highlight the country’s vulnerability to climate change and underscore the potential for adverse impacts on livelihoods, the economy, and human health. The study provides a foundation for developing strategies and adaptation actions.

Background: Malaria, a prominent health concern globally, exhibits a strong correlation with climatic determinants. With the changing global climate, understanding this relationship becomes imperative in crafting preventive strategies against the disease. Objectives: This research aimed to ascertain the relationships between climatic variables and malaria incidence in Beira City between 2012 and 2020, as well as project the potential implications of climate change on future malaria transmission. Methods: The study deployed the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) with a flexible smoothing function to probe the associations between climate variables and weekly malaria incidence. It further evaluated the potential repercussions of climate change on malaria transmission under different emission trajectories. Results: Significant associations were found between climatic factors and malaria incidence. The findings indicated that recent rainfall (within the last three weeks) and relative humidity (over the past four weeks) had a positive impact on malaria incidence. Conversely, the temperature from the previous week and other time-related variables had a negative effect. Future projections under different emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.6, and RCP8.5) anticipate a decline in malaria incidence by 2030. Conclusion: Climatic variables play a pivotal role in influencing malaria incidence. As such, they should be at the forefront of considerations for effective malaria prevention and control strategies. Moreover, the study provides invaluable insights that can guide public health decisions, emphasizing the need to address the potential repercussions of climate change on malaria transmission.

Transmission of water, vector, and foodborne diseases tends to increase with climate variability, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. Globally, this dynamic contributes to adverse health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries such as Mozambique. Nevertheless, the influence of climate variability on disease patterns remains unclear. We assessed the potential relationship between climate variables and diseases, including diarrheal diseases, malaria, and malnutrition, in four districts around the Revuè sub-basin. An ecological, longitudinal, retrospective study conducted from 2016 to 2024 used secondary weekly disease data and annual malnutrition records. We applied a Generalized Additive Model framework to evaluate non-linear associations between climate factors and disease case counts. Our main findings showed that while higher maximum temperature was associated with increased cumulative malaria case counts, cumulative and heavy rainfall (~100 mm/week) was associated with decreased diarrheal disease case counts. Higher prevalence of moderate acute malnutrition is associated with a decrease in annual mean total precipitation (p = 0.0062). In contrast, higher prevalence of severe acute malnutrition is associated with a decrease in annual mean temperature (p = 0.0312). This study contributes to understanding climate variables associated with water, vector, and foodborne diseases, enhancing our understanding of factors contributing to overall food insecurity and affecting public health.