Against the backdrop of China’s “dual carbon” strategy (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality), provincial-level carbon emission research is crucial for the implementation of related policies. However, existing studies insufficiently cover the driving mechanisms and scenario prediction for energy-importing provinces. This study can provide theoretical references for similar provinces in China to conduct research on carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption. The carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu Province between 2000 and 2023 were calculated using the carbon emission coefficient method. The Tapio decoupling index model was adopted to evaluate the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu. An extended STIRPAT model was established to predict carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu, and this model was applied to analyze the emissions under three scenarios (baseline scenario, low-carbon scenario, and enhanced low-carbon scenario) during 2024–2030. The results show the following: (1) During 2000–2023, the carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu Province ranged from 215.22428 million tons to 783.94270 million tons, with an average of 549.96280 million tons. (2) The decoupling status between carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption and economic development in Jiangsu was dominated by weak decoupling, accounting for 91.304%, while a small proportion (8.696%) of expansive coupling was also observed. (3) Under the baseline scenario, the carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu in 2030 will reach 796.828 million tons; under the low-carbon scenario, the emissions will be 786.355 million tons; and under the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the emissions will be 772.293 million tons. Furthermore, countermeasures and suggestions for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu are proposed, mainly including strengthening the guidance of policies and institutional systems, optimizing the energy consumption structure, intensifying technological innovation efforts, and enhancing government promotion and publicity.

This study characterizes the physicochemical properties of coal gangue in Huainan, a typical coal resource-based city in China, and evaluates variations in its chemical composition and associated ecological risks. The results show that the coal gangue in the Huainan mining area is composed mainly of quartz and clay minerals, with SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ together accounting for over 86% of the total composition. Rare earth element concentrations are generally higher than background levels, whereas heavy metal concentrations are generally below the risk screening values for soil contamination of agricultural land. Complex associations are observed among the elements in coal gangue. The correlation coefficients between SiO₂ and the other oxides or heavy metals range from −0.750 to −0.993, indicating significant negative correlations and suggesting that the silicate mineral phase occurs independently of other element-enriched phases. The potential ecological risk index (RI) for heavy metals ranges from 33.75 to 300.71 and is driven primarily by Hg and Cd. The RI for rare earth elements ranges from 98.9 to 220.3, with Lu as the key influencing element. The predicted probability of adverse biological effects is 14–15%. Overall, classified management of coal gangue in the Huainan mining area is recommended, together with strengthened continuous monitoring of Hg and Cd and optimization of ecological disposal strategies by integrating potential ecological risk assessment with analysis of adverse biological effects, thereby further supporting the green transition of resource-depleted cities.