The theory of real options offers an approach for the valuation of investments in real assets, based on the methodology developed for financial options. This approach is especially appropriate in the context of strategic decision making under conditions of uncertainty. This is the case for the valuation of highway concessions, where real options arise from certain clauses of the contracts, for example, a minimum traffic guarantee. The possible exercise of these kinds of rights means an added value for the project that cannot be easily captured using traditional procedures for investment valuation. In this paper, we develop a methodology to value these clauses of highway concessions and, for that purpose, we consider the traffic on the highway as the underlying asset in an option contract, taking into account that, when a nonfinancial asset is used, some adjustments have to be made to the options approach. This methodology is applied to the case of an already operating highway concession, using real data, and the authors obtain an estimate of the value of a minimum traffic guarantee, which depends on several parameters that are analyzed. The authors conclude that this methodology is an appropriate tool for the valuation of highway concessions that have operational flexibility.
According to the Spanish General Traffic Accident Directorate, in 2017 a total of 351 pedestrians were killed, and 14,322 pedestrians were injured in motor vehicle crashes in Spain. However, very few studies have been conducted in order to analyse the main factors that contribute to pedestrian injury severity. This study analyses the accidents that involve a single vehicle and a single pedestrian on Spanish crosstown roads from 2006 to 2016 (1535 crashes). The factors that explain these accidents include infractions committed by the pedestrian and the driver, crash profiles, and infrastructure characteristics. As a preliminary tool for the segmentation of 1535 pedestrian crashes, a k-means cluster analysis was applied. In addition, multinomial logit (MNL) models were used for analysing crash data, where possible outcomes were fatalities and severe and minor injured pedestrians. According to the results of these models, the risk factors associated with pedestrian injury severity are as follows: visibility restricted by weather conditions or glare, infractions committed by the pedestrian (such as not using crossings, crossing unlawfully, or walking on the road), infractions committed by the driver (such as distracted driving and not respecting a light or a crossing), and finally, speed infractions committed by drivers (such as inadequate speed). This study proposes the specific safety countermeasures that in turn will improve overall road safety in this particular type of road.
Population growth has increased in the last two centuries. In the driest countries, water supply alternatives are scarce, and desalination is an alternative to guarantee water supply. The question is what conditions must be met by the new desalination plants to achieve the objectives of sustainability. The present study is an analysis of the social, economic, and environmental variables that are critical in the development of desalination plants: technology used, energy sources, correction of the generated environmental impacts, and the most appropriate contractual model for its development. These attributes justify at the time of writing why reverse osmosis is the safest and most efficient technology among those available and those that are under investigation. It is proposed to incorporate renewable energy production sources, although it is still necessary to continue depending on the significant contribution of the traditional energy sources. The need will also be demonstrated to adopt corrective measures to mitigate against the impact produced on the environment by energy production and to implement monitoring plans to confirm the validity of these corrective measures. Finally, turnkey contracts are proposed because osmosis technology is complex, although technology should be justified by means of a decision support system. One of the determining factors is proposed in this present analysis.
Here we describe the development of a computer algorithm to simulate the Time-Dependent Ginzburg-Landau equation (TDGL) and its application to understand superconducting vortex dynamics in confined geometries. Our initial motivation to get involved in this task was trying to understand better our experimental measurements on the dynamics of superconductors with vortices at high frequencies leading to microwave stimulated superconductivity due to the presence of vortex [A. Lara, et al., Sci. Rep. 5, 9187 (2015)].
In civil engineering and construction, in the selection of the most adequate and sustainable alternative, all of the alternatives and selection criteria, such as the requirements of the construction process (which are often overlooked) and the preferences of designers, clients, or contractors, are not always taken into account. The purpose of this article is to suggest a methodology that may allow studying all of the possible alternatives to find the most ideal solution among all of the existing possibilities for the selection of retaining walls to be built in infrastructures in different environments. For this purpose, all typologies of retaining walls and selection criteria (external requirements, construction requirements, characteristics of the natural land and economic criteria) are first identified. Subsequently, a simple methodological method is proposed, allowing the relative importance of each criterion to be established and allowing us to select the most suitable solution for each situation by successively applying different multicriteria decision-making methods. Finally, the methodology developed is applied to two projects in different locations with different constraints. The results obtained provide a set of compromise solutions that remain as best-rank alternatives when the weights of the criteria change. Therefore, the methodology developed can be applied to the selection of typologies of other structures in future projects.