The agro-industry is among the largest methane emitters, posing a critical challenge for sustainability. In rural areas, producers lack effective technologies to manage daily organic waste. Anaerobic digestion (AD) offers a circular pathway by converting waste into biogas and biofertilizers; however, its adoption is limited by inappropriate designs and insufficient operational control. Theoretical-applied research addresses these barriers by improving the design and operation of small-scale biodigesters, elevating pH and Electrical Conductivity (EC) from passive indicators to first-order control variables. Based on the design of a compact biodigester previously validated in the Chillón Valley and replicated in Huaycán under a utility model patent process (INDECOPI, Exp. 001087-2025/DIN), a stoichiometric NaHCO${}_3$ strategy with joint pH–EC monitoring was formalized, defining operational windows (pH 6.92–6.97; EC 6200–6300 μS/cm and dose–response curves (0.3–0.4 kg/day for 3–4 day) to buffer VFA shocks and preserve methanogenic ionic strength. The system achieved stable productions of 370–462 L/day, surpassing the theoretical potential of 352.88 L/day calculated by Buswell’s equation. A multivariable predictive model (linear, quadratic, interaction terms pH × EC, temperature, and loading rate) was developed and validated with field data: R² = 0.78; MAPE = 2.7%; MAE = 11.2 L/day; RMSE = 13.8 L/day; r = 0.89; residuals normally distributed (Shapiro–Wilk p = 0.79). The proposed approach enables daily decision-making in low-instrumentation environments and provides a replicable and scalable pathway for the safe valorization of organic waste in rural areas. The design consolidates the shift from reactive to proactive and co-optimized pH–EC control, laying the foundation not only for standardized protocols and training in rural systems but also for improved environmental sustainability.

National estimates of the bioenergy potential of livestock manure still rest on static inventories that apply conversion yields to the gross mass of manure, ignoring the fraction that is actually recoverable under each production system and the substrate-specific nature of anaerobic co-digestion. This study develops a category-level predictive model of the technical biogas potential of livestock manure in Peru, projected to 2030, resolving seven livestock categories: dairy and non-dairy cattle, broilers and layers, swine, guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus) and goats. Recoverability is formulated as a time-dependent factor tracking the progressive confinement of production systems; the technical potential is bounded between a mono-digestion floor and a co-digestion ceiling constrained by a co-location criterion that admits synergy only when the co-substrate originates within the same production system; and a greenhouse-gas layer quantifies avoided emissions from methane conversion factors. All coefficients are reported as intervals and propagated jointly by Monte Carlo simulation. Two yield hypotheses are carried throughout: experimental biochemical methane potential and the IPCC-consistent digester ceiling. The national net technical potential is 1975 ${\mathrm{GWh}}_{\mathrm{p}}$${\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$ under mono-digestion (731 ${\mathrm{GWh}}_{\mathrm{e}}$; 95% credible interval 1628–2404 ${\mathrm{GWh}}_{\mathrm{p}}$, Monte Carlo $N=\mathrm{100,000}$) and 2093 ${\mathrm{GWh}}_{\mathrm{p}}$${\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$ under co-digestion. The gross approach exceeds the recoverable resource by a factor of 3.94, equivalently a contraction of 74.6% (95% CI 68.9–79.1%), and a symmetric Shapley decomposition attributes 76.1% of that contraction to recoverability rather than to conversion yield—a share that is stable across both yield hypotheses. The greenhouse-gas layer yields a result that reverses the expected policy ordering: broilers rank first by recoverable energy but last by avoided methane, whereas swine rank first by mitigation because liquid slurry storage is the only baseline system emitting enough methane for anaerobic digestion to displace. Below a digester leakage of 4.6%, methane abatement is negative at the national scale.