Lauren Bailey

Ms. Lauren Bailey

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

1Year (2026-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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16 July 2026 in Energies
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
DRDavide Rotilio
Davide Rotilio
MZMattia Zanotelli
Mattia Zanotelli
LBLauren Bailey
Lauren Bailey
JCJamie Baalis Coble
Jamie Baalis Coble
Xingang ZhaoXingang Zhao
Xingang Zhao
Accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of nuclear power plant systems can support more informed maintenance strategies and help reduce unplanned outages, motivating continued research into reliable, physically grounded prognostic models. This study evaluates machine-learning-based prognostic models, focusing on their ability to learn degradation patterns directly from operational data. Baseline Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and a hybrid GNN–Transformer architecture are assessed using data generated from the ASHERAH dynamic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, which incorporates realistic degradation mechanisms, including condenser fouling and pump head loss. The proposed hybrid model integrates graph-based representations of component interactions with Transformer-based temporal attention to capture both system-level dependencies and long-term degradation dynamics. Model performance is evaluated using error-based and tolerance-based metrics, including Prediction Within Bounds Accuracy (PWBA20%), alongside uncertainty calibration via Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP), with uncertainty quantified through deep ensembles. Results show that baseline NNs exhibit limited predictive accuracy and poor uncertainty calibration, while models incorporating temporal modeling and system topology achieve substantial improvements. The GNN–Transformer attains the strongest performance, yielding the highest PWBA20%  (87.3%) and significantly improved uncertainty calibration, with an average PICP of 90.0%. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of topology-aware, attention-based architectures for robust and reliable RUL prediction in complex nuclear systems.