This study assessed the conservation priorities for Cycas panzhihuaensis, a relict plant endemic to the dry-hot valleys of the Jinsha River, by integrating habitat suitability prediction with habitat quality evaluation. We used the MaxEnt model to identify its potential distribution and key environmental drivers and the InVEST model to evaluate habitat quality and degradation risk within the study area. Conservation priorities—categorized as hotspots, transition zones, and coldspots—were delineated by overlaying suitability classes with habitat quality levels. Spatial clustering of hotspots was examined using global spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results indicate that: (1) The highly suitable habitat for C. panzhihuaensis covers an area of 799.12 km², primarily concentrated in the dry-hot valleys of the Jinsha, Yalong, and Anning Rivers. January land surface temperature was the most significant environmental determinant of its distribution (contribution: 36.1%). (2) The overall habitat quality of the study region was relatively low (mean: 0.38), with a moderate risk of degradation. Areas of severe degradation spanned 14,629.31 km² (26.10% of the total area), largely coinciding with the river valleys and showing substantial overlap with the species’ suitable habitat. (3) The identified conservation hotspots (799.63 km²) exhibited a moderate and statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation (global Moran’s I = 0.326). This integrated approach provides a spatially explicit framework for conservation planning, offering valuable insights applicable to other rare species in human-impacted landscapes.

Climate change may alter mountain bamboo distributions and giant panda food resources. We modeled potential habitat suitability for Bashania faberi, Yushania brevipaniculata, and Chimonobambusa szechuanensis in a defined Qionglai Mountains study area in Sichuan, China, using MaxEnt, ten bootstrap replicates, and three global climate models (GCMs) for the 2050s and 2070s under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. We tested sensitivity to predictors, thresholds, spatial grain, connectivity, and future climate products. High omission in some spatial folds and 15 records make B. faberi projections exploratory and its patch metrics indicative. At species-specific 10th-percentile (10P) thresholds, the nine-variable ensemble projected gains for B. faberi and Y. brevipaniculata only under SSP5-8.5 in the 2070s; the five-variable configuration and fixed thresholds reversed both. Each expansion was supported by one GCM, while two projected contraction. Chimonobambusa szechuanensis contracted under the nine-variable and elevation-containing configurations but increased in the temperature-inclusive diagnostic at 10P. The combined suitable-area proportion fell from 34.20% currently to 21.00–31.05% in baseline future maps; mean patch area and aggregation also declined. Averaging outcomes could produce a different change direction from averaging predictions. These projections describe conditional suitability, not food supply or functional connectivity.