Despite the rapid development of risk analysis in dam engineering, there is a relative absence of research on the environmental impact of dam break. As a systematic theory, set pair analysis has a good effect in dealing with uncertainties, although the result is relatively rough and easy to distort. A connection degree of five grades and a generalized set of potential are introduced to improve traditional set pair analysis. Combined with the index system, the evaluation model of the environmental impact of dam break is established, which is based on generalized set pair analysis. Taking Sheheji Reservoir dam as an example, a comparison of evaluation results of fuzzy mathematics theory and generalized set pair analysis is made, which verifies the scientificity and practicability of the method proposed in this paper. The results show that the evaluation grade of the environmental impact of dam break at Sheheji Reservoir is serious, and appropriate management measures should be taken to reduce the risk.

Dam breach has catastrophic consequences for human lives and economy. In previous studies, empirical models are often, to a limited extent, due to the inadequacy of historical dam breach events. Physical models, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods, are not suitable for fast analysis of a large number of dams due to the complexities of many key parameters. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for fast evaluation of potential consequences of dam breach. Eight main indices, i.e., capacity of reservoir (C_R), dam height (H_D), population at risk (P_R), economy at risk (E_R), understanding of dam breach (U_B), industry type (T_I), warning time (T_W), and building vulnerability (V_B), are selected to establish an evaluation index system. A catastrophe evaluation method is introduced to establish an evaluation model for potential consequences of dam breach based on the indices which are divided into five grades according to the relevant standards and guidelines. Validation of the method by twelve historical dam breach events shows a good accuracy. The method is applied to evaluate potential consequences of dam breach of Jiangang Reservoir in Henan Province, China. It is estimated that loss of life in the worst scenario is between that of Hengjiang Reservoir and that of Shimantan Reservoir dam breach, of which fatalities are 941 and 2717, respectively, showing that risk management measures should be taken to reduce the risk of potential loss of life.

Determining the anti-sliding instability risk of earth–rock dams involves the analysis of complex uncertain factors, which are mostly regarded as random variables in traditional analysis methods. In fact, fuzziness and randomness are two inseparable uncertainty factors influencing the stability of earth–rock dams. Most previous research only focused on the randomness or the fuzziness of individual variables. Moreover, dam systems present a fuzzy transition from a stable state into a failure state. Therefore, both fuzziness and randomness of the influencing factors should be considered in the same framework, where the instability of an earth–rock dam is regarded as a mixed process. In this paper, a fuzzy risk model of instability of earth–rock dams is established by considering the randomness and fuzziness of parameters and the failure criteria comprehensively. We obtained the probability threshold of instability risk of earth–rock dams by Monte-Carlo simulation after the fuzzy parameters were transformed into interval numbers by cut set levels. By applying the proposed model to the instability analysis of the Longxingsi Reservoir, the calculation results showed that the lower limits of risk probability under different cut set levels exceeded the instability risk standard of grade C for earth–rock dams. Compared with the traditional risk determination value, the risk interval obtained with the proposed methods reflects different degrees of dam instability risk and can provide reference for dam structure safety assessment and management.