Cosmological information from weak lensing surveys is maximized by sorting source galaxies into tomographic redshift subsamples. Any uncertainties on these redshift distributions must be correctly propagated into the cosmological results. We present hyperrank, a new method for marginalizing over redshift distribution uncertainties, using discrete samples from the space of all possible redshift distributions, improving over simple parametrized models. In hyperrank, the set of proposed redshift distributions is ranked according to a small (between one and four) number of summary values, which are then sampled, along with other nuisance parameters and cosmological parameters in the Monte Carlo chain used for inference. This approach can be regarded as a general method for marginalizing over discrete realizations of data vector variation with nuisance parameters, which can consequently be sampled separately from the main parameters of interest, allowing for increased computational efficiency. We focus on the case of weak lensing cosmic shear analyses and demonstrate our method using simulations made for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that the method can correctly and efficiently marginalize over a wide range of models for the redshift distribution uncertainty. Finally, we compare hyperrank to the common mean-shifting method of marginalizing over redshift uncertainty, validating that this simpler model is sufficient for use in the DES Year 3 cosmology results presented in companion papers.
21 November 2024 in PLOS Sustainability and Transformation
We urgently need to foster regenerative food systems that mutually reinforce human and ecological health. However, we have limited understanding of the action pathways that could encourage the emergence of such systems. Here we report on an extensive Three Horizons futures process, conducted with diverse participation from food system researchers and practitioners, to identify core domains of action for transforming the food system of Yorkshire, UK, towards a regenerative future. After establishing the contrast between the current degenerative and envisioned future regenerative food system, six core action domains were identified that require support to enable transformation: 1) enhancing supply chain connectivity and innovation to support diverse hybrid business ecosystems; 2) scaling environmentally beneficial and regenerative farming; 3) empowering citizens to reshape food demand; 4) providing trusted, accessible knowledge support for standards and incentives; 5) supporting schools and young people as drivers of long-term change; and 6) ensuring coordination and mutual support across domains. Our results highlight the importance of efforts to cohere synergic action, ambitious visioning, and addressing issues of power. Overall, our study sets an ambitious standard for co-developing action priorities to encourage regenerative futures.
10 September 2021 in Journal of Open Source Software
We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.
Our understanding of the γ-ray sky has improved dramatically in the past decade, however, the unresolved γ-ray background (UGRB) still has a potential wealth of information about the faintest γ-ray sources pervading the Universe. Statistical cross-correlations with tracers of cosmic structure can indirectly identify the populations that most characterize the γ-ray background. In this study, we analyze the angular correlation between the γ-ray background and the matter distribution in the Universe as traced by gravitational lensing, leveraging more than a decade of observations from the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) and 3 years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We detect a correlation at signal-to-noise ratio of 8.9. Most of the statistical significance comes from large scales, demonstrating, for the first time, that a substantial portion of the UGRB aligns with the mass clustering of the Universe as traced by weak lensing. Blazars provide a plausible explanation for this signal, especially if those contributing to the correlation reside in halos of large mass (∼ 1014M⊙) and account for approximately 30–40% of the UGRB above 10 GeV. Additionally, we observe a preference for a curved γ-ray energy spectrum, with a log-parabolic shape being favored over a power-law. We also discuss the possibility of modifications to the blazar model and the inclusion of additional γ-ray sources, such as star-forming galaxies, misalinged active galactic nuclei, or particle dark matter.