In recent years, researchers have realized the difficulties of fitting power-law distributions properly. These difficulties are higher in Zipfian systems, due to the discreteness of the variables and to the existence of two representations for these systems, i.e., two versions depending on the random variable to fit: rank or size. The discreteness implies that a power law in one of the representations is not a power law in the other, and vice versa. We generate synthetic power laws in both representations and apply a state-of-the-art fitting method to each of the two random variables. The method (based on maximum likelihood plus a goodness-of-fit test) does not fit the whole distribution but the tail, understood as the part of a distribution above a cutoff that separates non-power-law behavior from power-law behavior. We find that, no matter which random variable is power-law distributed, using the rank as the random variable is problematic for fitting, in general (although it may work in some limit cases). One of the difficulties comes from recovering the “hidden” true ranks from the empirical ranks. On the contrary, the representation in terms of the distribution of sizes allows one to recover the true exponent (with some small bias when the underlying size distribution is a power law only asymptotically).

An important body of quantitative linguistics is constituted by a series of statistical laws about language usage. Despite the importance of these linguistic laws, some of them are poorly formulated, and, more importantly, there is no unified framework that encompasses all them. This paper presents a new perspective to establish a connection between different statistical linguistic laws. Characterizing each word type by two random variables—length (in number of characters) and absolute frequency—we show that the corresponding bivariate joint probability distribution shows a rich and precise phenomenology, with the type-length and the type-frequency distributions as its two marginals, and the conditional distribution of frequency at fixed length providing a clear formulation for the brevity-frequency phenomenon. The type-length distribution turns out to be well fitted by a gamma distribution (much better than with the previously proposed lognormal), and the conditional frequency distributions at fixed length display power-law-decay behavior with a fixed exponent $\alpha \simeq 1.4$ and a characteristic-frequency crossover that scales as an inverse power $\delta \simeq 2.8$ of length, which implies the fulfillment of a scaling law analogous to those found in the thermodynamics of critical phenomena. As a by-product, we find a possible model-free explanation for the origin of Zipf’s law, which should arise as a mixture of conditional frequency distributions governed by the crossover length-dependent frequency.

The distribution of seismic moment is of capital interest to evaluate earthquake hazard, in particular regarding the most extreme events. We make use of likelihood-ratio tests to compare the simple Gutenberg-Richter power-law (PL) distribution with two statistical models that incorporate an exponential tail, the so-called tapered Gutenberg-Richter (Tap) and the truncated gamma, when fitted to the global CMT earthquake catalog. Although the Tap distribution does not introduce any significant improvement of fit respect the PL, the truncated gamma does. Simulated samples of this distribution, with parameters β = 0.68 and m_c = 9.15 and reshuffled in order to mimic the time occurrence of the order statistics of the empirical data, are able to explain the temporal heterogeneity of global seismicity both before and after the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004.

Intense geomagnetic storms can cause severe damage to electrical systems and communications. This work proposes a counting process with Weibull inter-occurrence times in order to estimate the probability of extreme geomagnetic events. It is found that the scale parameter of the inter-occurrence time distribution grows exponentially with the absolute value of the intensity threshold defining the storm, whereas the shape parameter keeps rather constant. The model is able to forecast the probability of occurrence of an event for a given intensity threshold; in particular, the probability of occurrence on the next decade of an extreme event of a magnitude comparable or larger than the well-known Carrington event of 1859 is explored, and estimated to be between 0.46% and 1.88% (with a 95% confidence), a much lower value than those reported in the existing literature.