Global concern about human impact on biological diversity has triggered an intense research agenda on drivers and consequences of biodiversity change in parallel with international policy seeking to conserve biodiversity and associated ecosystem functions. Quantifying the trends in biodiversity is far from trivial, however, as recently documented by meta‐analyses, which report little if any net change in local species richness through time. Here, we summarise several limitations of species richness as a metric of biodiversity change and show that the expectation of directional species richness trends under changing conditions is invalid. Instead, we illustrate how a set of species turnover indices provide more information content regarding temporal trends in biodiversity, as they reflect how dominance and identity shift in communities over time. We apply these metrics to three monitoring datasets representing different ecosystem types. In all datasets, nearly complete species turnover occurred, but this was disconnected from any species richness trends. Instead, turnover was strongly influenced by changes in species presence (identities) and dominance (abundances). We further show that these metrics can detect phases of strong compositional shifts in monitoring data and thus identify a different aspect of biodiversity change decoupled from species richness. Synthesis and applications: Temporal trends in species richness are insufficient to capture key changes in biodiversity in changing environments. In fact, reductions in environmental quality can lead to transient increases in species richness if immigration or extinction has different temporal dynamics. Thus, biodiversity monitoring programmes need to go beyond analyses of trends in richness in favour of more meaningful assessments of biodiversity change.

Methane (CH₄) strongly contributes to observed global warming. As natural CH₄ emissions mainly originate from wet ecosystems, it is important to unravel how climate change may affect these emissions. This is especially true for ebullition (bubble flux from sediments), a pathway that has long been underestimated but generally dominates emissions. Here we show a remarkably strong relationship between CH₄ ebullition and temperature across a wide range of freshwater ecosystems on different continents using multi-seasonal CH₄ ebullition data from the literature. As these temperature–ebullition relationships may have been affected by seasonal variation in organic matter availability, we also conducted a controlled year-round mesocosm experiment. Here 4 °C warming led to 51% higher total annual CH₄ ebullition, while diffusion was not affected. Our combined findings suggest that global warming will strongly enhance freshwater CH₄ emissions through a disproportional increase in ebullition (6–20% per 1 °C increase), contributing to global warming.

Shallow lakes can shift between stable states as a result of anthropogenic or natural drivers. Four common stable states differ in dominant groups of primary producers: submerged, floating, or emergent macrophytes or phytoplankton. Shifts in primary producer dominance affect key supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services supplied by lakes. However, links between states and services are often neglected or unknown in lake management, resulting in conflicts and additional costs. Here, we identify major shallow lake ecosystem services and their links to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), compare service provisioning among the four ecosystem states and discuss potential trade‐offs. We identified 39 ecosystem services potentially provided by shallow lakes. Submerged macrophytes facilitate most of the supporting (86%) and cultural (63%) services, emergent macrophytes facilitate most regulating services (60%), and both emergent and floating macrophytes facilitate most provisioning services (63%). Phytoplankton dominance supports fewer ecosystem services, and contributes most to provisioning services (42%). The shallow lake ecosystem services we identified could be linked to 10 different SDGs, notably zero hunger (SDG 2), clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11), and climate action (SDG13). We highlighted several trade‐offs (1) among ecosystem services, (2) within ecosystem services, and (3) between ecosystem services across ecosystems. These trade‐offs can have significant ecological and economic consequences that may be prevented by early identification in water quality management. In conclusion, common stable states in shallow lakes provide a different and diverse set of ecosystem services with numerous links to the majority of SDGs. Conserving and restoring ecosystem states should account for potential trade‐offs between ecosystem services and preserving the natural value of shallow lakes.

Harmful algal blooms threaten the water quality of many eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes and cause severe ecological and economic damage worldwide. Dense blooms often deplete the dissolved CO₂ concentration and raise pH. Yet, quantitative prediction of the feedbacks between phytoplankton growth, CO₂ drawdown and the inorganic carbon chemistry of aquatic ecosystems has received surprisingly little attention. Here, we develop a mathematical model to predict dynamic changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pH and alkalinity during phytoplankton bloom development. We tested the model in chemostat experiments with the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa at different CO₂ levels. The experiments showed that dense blooms sequestered large amounts of atmospheric CO₂, not only by their own biomass production but also by inducing a high pH and alkalinity that enhanced the capacity for DIC storage in the system. We used the model to explore how phytoplankton blooms of eutrophic waters will respond to rising CO₂ levels. The model predicts that (1) dense phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters can deplete the dissolved CO₂ concentration to limiting levels and raise the pH over a relatively wide range of atmospheric CO₂ conditions, (2) rising atmospheric CO₂ levels will enhance phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters with high nutrient loads, and (3) above some threshold, rising atmospheric CO₂ will alleviate phytoplankton blooms from carbon limitation, resulting in less intense CO₂ depletion and a lesser increase in pH. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model predictions were qualitatively robust. Quantitatively, the predictions were sensitive to variation in lake depth, DIC input and CO₂ gas transfer across the air-water interface, but relatively robust to variation in the carbon uptake mechanisms of phytoplankton. In total, these findings warn that rising CO₂ levels may result in a marked intensification of phytoplankton blooms in eutrophic and hypertrophic waters.