Background: Over the last decade, major outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported in Asian countries, resulting in thousands of deaths among children. However, less is known regarding the effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of HFMD in children. This study aims at quantifying the relationship between meteorological variables and the incidence of HFMD among children in Guangzhou, China.Methods: The association between weekly HFMD cases in children aged <15 years and meteorological variables in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed using the generalized additive model (GAM) and time-series method, after controlling for long-term trend and seasonality, holiday effects, influenza period and delayed effects.Results: Temperature and relative humidity with one week lag were significantly associated with HFMD infection among children. We found that a 1°C increase in temperature led to an increase of 1.86% (95% CI: 0.92, 2.81%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0–14 years age group. A one percent increase in relative humidity may lead to an increase of 1.42% (95% CI: 0.97, 1.87%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0–14 years age group.Conclusions: This study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD in children was associated with high average temperature and high relative humidity. The one-week delay in the effects of temperature and relative humidity on HFMD is consistent with the enterovirus incubation period and the potential time lag between onset of children’s sickness and parental awareness and response.

Bacillary dysentery remains a major public health concern in China. The Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan urban region is one of the most heavily infected areas in the country. This study aimed to analyze epidemiological features of bacillary dysentery, detect spatial-temporal clusters of the disease, and analyze risk factors that may affect bacillary dysentery incidence in the region. Bacillary dysentery case data from January 2011 to December 2011 in Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan were used in this study. The epidemiological features of cases were characterized, then scan statistics were performed to detect spatial temporal clusters of bacillary dysentery. A spatial panel model was used to identify potential risk factors. There were a total of 28,765 cases of bacillary dysentery in 2011. The results of the analysis indicated that compared with other age groups, the highest incidence (473.75/105) occurred in individuals <5 years of age. The incidence in males (530.57/105) was higher compared with females (409.06/105). On a temporal basis, incidence increased rapidly starting in April. Peak incidence occurred in August (571.10/105). Analysis of the spatial distribution model revealed that factors such as population density, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours were positively associated with incidence rate. Per capita gross domestic product was negatively associated with disease incidence. Meteorological and socio-economic factors have affected the transmission of bacillary dysentery in the urban Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan region of China. The success of bacillary dysentery prevention and control department strategies would benefit from giving more consideration to climate variations and local socio-economic conditions.

Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a substantial threat recently. However few studies have quantified spatiotemporal heterogeneity of HFMD and detected spatiotemporal interactive effect of potential driving factors on this disease. Using GeoDetector and Bayesian space-time hierarchy model, we characterized the epidemiology of HFMD in Henan, one of the largest population provinces in China, from 2012 to 2013, and quantified the impacts of potential driving factors. Notably, 21.43 and 24.60% counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Spatially, the hotspots were mainly clustered in regions where the economic level was high. Temporally, the highest incidence period of HFMD was discovered to be in late spring and early summer. The impact of meteorological and socio-economic factors on the disease are significant, and this study found that a 1 °C rise in temperature was related to an increase of 4.09% in the HFMD incidence, a 1% increment in relative humidity was associated with a 1.77% increase of the disease, and a 1% increment in ratio of urban to rural population was associated with a 0.16% increase of the disease. Meteorological and socio-economic factors presented significantly association with HFMD incidence, high-risk mainly appeared in large cities and their adjacent regions in hot and humid season. These findings will be helpful for HFMD risk control and disease-prevention policies implementation.