We compared several modeling strategies for vaccine adverse event count data in which the data are characterized by excess zeroes and heteroskedasticity. Count data are routinely modeled using Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB) regression but zero-inflated and hurdle models may be advantageous in this setting. Here we compared the fit of the Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), Poisson Hurdle (PH), and Negative Binomial Hurdle (NBH) models. In general, for public health studies, we may conceptualize zero-inflated models as allowing zeroes to arise from at-risk and not-at-risk populations. In contrast, hurdle models may be conceptualized as having zeroes only from an at-risk population. Our results illustrate, for our data, that the ZINB and NBH models are preferred but these models are indistinguishable with respect to fit. Choosing between the zero-inflated and hurdle modeling framework, assuming Poisson and NB models are inadequate because of excess zeroes, should generally be based on the study design and purpose. If the study's purpose is inference then modeling framework should be considered. For example, if the study design leads to count endpoints with both structural and sample zeroes then generally the zero-inflated modeling framework is more appropriate, while in contrast, if the endpoint of interest, by design, only exhibits sample zeroes (e.g., at-risk participants) then the hurdle model framework is generally preferred. Conversely, if the study's primary purpose it is to develop a prediction model then both the zero-inflated and hurdle modeling frameworks should be adequate.

The threshold for population-level optimal red blood cell (RBC) folate concentration among women of reproductive age for the prevention of neural tube defects has been estimated at 906 nmol/L; however, the dose-response relationship between folic acid intake and blood folate concentrations is uncharacterized. To estimate the magnitude of blood folate concentration increase in response to specific dosages of folic acid under steady-state conditions (as could be achieved with food fortification), a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis was conducted. Of the 14,002 records we identified, 533 were selected for full-text review, and data were extracted from 108 articles. The steady-state concentrations (homeostasis) of both serum/plasma and RBC folate concentrations were estimated using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach and one-compartment physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models. RBC folate concentrations increased 1.78 fold (95% credible interval (CI): 1.66, 1.93) from baseline to steady-state at 375–570 µg folic acid/day, and it took a median of 36 weeks of folic acid intake (95% CI: 27, 52) to achieve steady-state RBC folate concentrations. Based on regression analysis, we estimate that serum/plasma folate concentrations increased 11.6% (95% CI: 8.4, 14.9) for every 100 µg/day folic acid intake. These results will help programs plan and monitor folic acid fortification programs.

Background: Although most adults infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) fully recover, a proportion have ongoing symptoms, or post-COVID conditions (PCC), after infection. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the number of United States (US) adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021.Methods: We modeled the prevalence of PCC using reported infections occurring from 1 February 2020 to 30 September 2021, and population-based, household survey data on new activity-limiting symptoms ≥1 month following SARS-CoV-2 infection. From these data sources, we estimated the number and proportion of US adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021 as 95% uncertainty intervals, stratified by sex and age. Sensitivity analyses adjusted for underascertainment of infections and uncertainty about symptom duration.Results: On 1 November 2021, at least 3.0–5.0 million US adults, or 1.2%–1.9% of the US adult population, were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC of ≥1 month’s duration. Population prevalence was higher in females (1.4%–2.2%) than males. The estimated prevalence after adjusting for underascertainment of infections was 1.7%–3.8%.Conclusions: Millions of US adults were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC. These estimates can support future efforts to address the impact of PCC on the US population.

Surveillance data have highlighted continued disparities in neural tube defects (NTDs) by race-ethnicity in the United States. Starting in 2016, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized voluntary folic acid fortification of corn masa flour to reduce the risk of neural tube defects (NTDs) among infants of Hispanic women of reproductive age. To assess the impact of voluntary corn masa fortification, cross-sectional data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011–2018 for Hispanic women of reproductive age with available red blood cell (RBC) folate concentrations were analyzed, with additional analyses conducted among Hispanic women whose sole source of folic acid intake was fortified foods (enriched cereal grain products (ECGP) only), excluding ready-to-eat cereals and supplements. RBC folate concentration (adjusted geometric mean) among Hispanic women of reproductive age did not differ between 2011–2016 and 2017–2018, though RBC folate concentration increased significantly among lesser acculturated Hispanic women consuming ECGP only. Concentrations of RBC folate for those born outside the U.S and residing in the U.S <15 years increased from 894 nmol/L (95% CI: 844–946) in 2011–2016 to 1018 nmol/L (95% CI: 982–1162; p < 0.001) in 2017–2018. Primarily Spanish-speaking Hispanic women of reproductive age who only consumed ECGP saw an increase from 941 nmol/L (95% CI: 895–990) in 2011–2016 to 1034 nmol/L (95% CI: 966–1107; p = 0.03) in 2017–2018. By subpopulation, we observed no significant changes in the proportion at risk of NTDs (<748 nmol/L) and no changes in the model-based estimated NTD rates following voluntary corn masa fortification. This analysis suggests that there is a remaining risk among Hispanics for folate sensitive NTDs, though continued monitoring of folate status in future NHANES data cycles will help inform the long-term efficacy of voluntary fortification of corn masa flour.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a disproportionate burden on racial and ethnic minority groups, but incompleteness in surveillance data limits understanding of disparities. CDC’s case-based surveillance system contains most COVID-19 cases in the United States. Data analyzed in this paper contain COVID-19 cases with case-level information through September 25, 2020, which represent 70.9% of all COVID-19 cases reported to CDC during the period. Case-level surveillance data are used to investigate COVID-19 disparities by race/ethnicity, sex, and age. However, demographic information on race and ethnicity is missing for a substantial percentage of COVID-19 cases (e.g., 35.8% and 47.2% of cases analyzed were missing race and ethnicity information, respectively). Our goal in this study was to impute missing race and ethnicity to derive more accurate incidence and incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimates for different racial and ethnic groups, and evaluate the results from imputation compared to complete case analysis, which involves removing cases with missing race/ethnicity information from the analysis. Two multiple imputation (MI) models were developed. Model 1 imputes race using six binary race variables, and Model 2 imputes race as a composite multinomial variable. Our evaluation found that compared with complete case analysis, MI reduced biases and improved coverage on incidence and IRR estimates for all race/ethnicity groups, except for the Non-Hispanic Multiple/other group. Our research highlights the importance of supplementing complete case analysis with additional methods of analysis to better describe racial and ethnic disparities. When race and ethnicity data are missing, multiple imputation may provide more accurate incidence and IRR estimates to monitor these disparities in tandem with efforts to improve the collection of race and ethnicity information for pandemic surveillance.