Machine learning and artificial intelligence have achieved a human-level performance in many application domains, including image classification, speech recognition and machine translation. However, in the financial domain expert-based credit risk models have still been dominating. Establishing meaningful benchmark and comparisons on machine-learning approaches and human expert-based models is a prerequisite in further introducing novel methods. Therefore, our main goal in this study is to establish a new benchmark using real consumer data and to provide machine-learning approaches that can serve as a baseline on this benchmark. We performed an extensive comparison between the machine-learning approaches and a human expert-based model—FICO credit scoring system—by using a Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) data. As the SCF data is non-synthetic and consists of a large number of real variables, we applied two variable-selection methods: the first method used hypothesis tests, correlation and random forest-based feature importance measures and the second method was only a random forest-based new approach (NAP), to select the best representative features for effective modelling and to compare them. We then built regression models based on various machine-learning algorithms ranging from logistic regression and support vector machines to an ensemble of gradient boosted trees and deep neural networks. Our results demonstrated that if lending institutions in the 2001s had used their own credit scoring model constructed by machine-learning methods explored in this study, their expected credit losses would have been lower, and they would be more sustainable. In addition, the deep neural networks and XGBoost algorithms trained on the subset selected by NAP achieve the highest area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy, respectively.

An accurate exchange rate forecasting and its decision-making to buy or sell are critical issues in the Forex market. Short-term currency rate forecasting is a challenging task due to its inherent characteristics, which include high volatility, trend, noise, and market shocks. We propose a novel deep learning architecture consisting of an adaptive activation function selection mechanism to achieve higher predictive accuracy. The proposed architecture is composed of seven neural networks that have different activation functions as well as softmax layer and multiplication layer with a skip connection, which are used to generate the dynamic importance weights that decide which activation function is preferred. In addition, we introduce an extended Min-Max smoothing technique to further normalize financial time series that have non-stationary properties. In our experimental evaluation, the results showed that our proposed model not only outperforms deep neural network baselines but also other classic machine learning approaches. The extended Min-Max smoothing technique is step towards forecasting non-stationary financial time series with deep neural networks.

A multidisciplinary journal that focuses on public health and technology, public health informatics, mass media campaigns, surveillance, and innovation in public health practice and research. Also dedicated to rapid open data sharing during epidemics.

We propose a neural machine-reading model that constructs dynamic knowledge graphs from procedural text. It builds these graphs recurrently for each step of the described procedure, and uses them to track the evolving states of participant entities. We harness and extend a recently proposed machine reading comprehension (MRC) model to query for entity states, since these states are generally communicated in spans of text and MRC models perform well in extracting entity-centric spans. The explicit, structured, and evolving knowledge graph representations that our model constructs can be used in downstream question answering tasks to improve machine comprehension of text, as we demonstrate empirically. On two comprehension tasks from the recently proposed PROPARA dataset (Dalvi et al., 2018), our model achieves state-of-the-art results. We further show that our model is competitive on the RECIPES dataset (Kiddon et al., 2015), suggesting it may be generally applicable. We present some evidence that the model's knowledge graphs help it to impose commonsense constraints on its predictions.

Machine learning models with both good predictability and high interpretability are crucial for decision support systems. Linear regression is one of the most interpretable prediction models. However, the linearity in a simple linear regression worsens its predictability. In this work, we introduce a locally adaptive interpretable regression (LoAIR). In LoAIR, a metamodel parameterized by neural networks predicts percentile of a Gaussian distribution for the regression coefficients for a rapid adaptation. Our experimental results on public benchmark datasets show that our model not only achieves comparable or better predictive performance than the other state-of-the-art baselines but also discovers some interesting relationships between input and target variables such as a parabolic relationship between CO2 emissions and Gross National Product (GNP). Therefore, LoAIR is a step towards bridging the gap between econometrics, statistics, and machine learning by improving the predictive ability of linear regression without depreciating its interpretability.

Humans can quickly associate stimuli to solve problems in novel contexts. Our novel neural network model learns state representations of facts that can be composed to perform such associative inference. To this end, we augment the LSTM model with an associative memory, dubbed Fast Weight Memory (FWM). Through differentiable operations at every step of a given input sequence, the LSTM updates and maintains compositional associations stored in the rapidly changing FWM weights. Our model is trained end-to-end by gradient descent and yields excellent performance on compositional language reasoning problems, meta-reinforcement-learning for POMDPs, and small-scale word-level language modelling.