Thailand was hit by the second wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a densely migrant-populated province (Samut Sakhon). COVID-19 vaccines were known to be effective; however, the supply was limited. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the effectiveness of Thailand’s COVID-19 vaccination strategy. We obtained most of the data from the Ministry of Public Health. Deterministic system dynamics and compartmental models were utilized. The reproduction number (R) between Thais and migrants was estimated at 1.25 and 2.5, respectively. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) to prevent infection was assumed at 50%. In Samut Sakhon, there were 500,000 resident Thais and 360,000 resident migrants. The contribution of migrants to the province’s gross domestic product was estimated at 20%. Different policy scenarios were analyzed. The migrant-centric vaccination policy scenario received the lowest incremental cost per one case or one death averted compared with the other scenarios. The Thai-centric policy scenario yielded an incremental cost of 27,191 Baht per one life saved, while the migrant-centric policy scenario produced a comparable incremental cost of 3782 Baht. Sensitivity analysis also demonstrated that the migrant-centric scenario presented the most cost-effective outcome even when VE diminished to 20%. A migrant-centric policy yielded the smallest volume of cumulative infections and deaths and was the most cost-effective scenario, independent of R and VE values. Further studies should address political feasibility and social acceptability of migrant vaccine prioritization.

The COVID-19 pandemic will not be the last of its kind. As the world charts a way towards an equitable and resilient recovery, Public Health and Social Measures (PHSMs) that were implemented since the beginning of the pandemic need to be made a permanent feature of health systems that can be activated and readily deployed to tackle sudden surges in infections going forward. Although PHSMs aim to blunt the spread of the virus, and in turn protect lives and preserve health system capacity, there are also unintended consequences attributed to them. Importantly, the interactions between PHSMs and their accompanying key indicators that influence the strength and duration of PHSMs are elements that require in-depth exploration. This research employs case studies from six Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam, to paint a comprehensive picture of PHSMs that protect the lives and livelihoods of populations. Nine typologies of PHSMs that emerged are as follows: (1) physical distancing, (2) border controls, (3) personal protective equipment requirements, (4) transmission monitoring, (5) surge health infrastructure capacity, (6) surge medical supplies, (7) surge human resources, (8) vaccine availability and roll-out and (9) social and economic support measures. The key indicators that influence the strength and duration of PHSMs are as follows: (1) size of community transmission, (2) number of severe cases and mortality, (3) health system capacity, (4) vaccine coverage, (5) fiscal space and (6) technology. Interactions between PHSMs can be synergistic or inhibiting, depending on various contextual factors. Fundamentally, PHSMs do not operate in silos, and a suite of PHSMs that are complementary is required to ensure that lives and livelihoods are safeguarded with an equity lens. For that to be achieved, strong governance structures and community engagement are also required at all levels of the health system.

In mid-2021, Thailand faced a fourth wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) predominantly fueled by the Delta and Alpha variants. The number of cases and deaths rose exponentially, alongside a sharp increase in hospitalizations and intubated patients. The Thai Government then implemented a lockdown to mitigate the outbreak magnitude and prevent cases from overwhelming the healthcare system. This study aimed to model the severity of the outbreak over the following months by different levels of lockdown effectiveness. Secondary analysis was performed on data primarily obtained from the Ministry of Health; the data were analyzed using both the deterministic compartmental model and the system dynamics model. The model was calibrated against the number of daily cases in Greater Bangkok during June–July 2021. We then assessed the outcomes (daily cases, daily deaths, and intubated patients) according to hypothetical lockdowns of varying effectiveness and duration. The findings revealed that lockdown measures could reduce and delay the peak of COVID-19 cases and deaths. A two-month lockdown with 60% effectiveness in the reduction in reproduction number caused the lowest number of cases, deaths, and intubated patients, with a peak about one-fifth of the size of a no-lockdown peak. The two-month lockdown policy also delayed the peak until after December, while in the context of a one-month lockdown, cases peaked during the end of September to early December (depending on the varying degrees of lockdown effectiveness in the reduction in reproduction number). In other words, the implementation of a lockdown policy did not mean the end of the outbreak, but it helped delay the peak. In this sense, implementing a lockdown helped to buy time for the healthcare system to recover and better prepare for any future outbreaks. We recommend further studies that explore the impact of lockdown measures at a sub-provincial level, and examine the impact of lockdowns on parameters not directly related to the spread of disease, such as quality of life and economic implications for individuals and society.

Background: In response to an increased health burden from non-communicable diseases (NCDs), primary health care (PHC) is effective platform to support NCDs prevention and control. This study aims to assess Thailand’s PHC capacity in providing NCDs services, identify enabling factors and challenges and provide policy recommendations for improvement. Methods: This cross-sectional mixed-method study was conducted between October 2019 and May 2020. Two provinces, one rich and one poor, were randomly selected and then a city and rural district from each province were randomly selected. From these 4 sites in the 2 provinces, all 56 PHC centres responded to a self-administrative questionnaire survey on their capacities and practices related to NCDs. A total of 79 participants from Provincial and District Health Offices, provincial and district hospitals, and PHC centres who are involved with NCDs participated in focus group discussions or in-depth interviews. Results: Strong health infrastructure, competent staff (however not with increased workload), essential medicines and secured budget boost PHC capacity to address NCDs prevention, control, case management, referral and rehabilitation. Community engagement through village health volunteers improves NCDs awareness, supports enrolment in screening and raises adherence to interventions. Village health volunteers, the crucial link between the health system and the community, are key in supporting health promotion and NCDs prevention and control. Collaboration between provincial and district hospitals in providing resources and technical support enhance the capacity of PHC centres to provide NCDs services. However, inconsistent national policy directions and uncertainty related to key performance indicators hamper progress in NCDs management at the operational level. The dynamic of urbanization and socialization, especially living in obesogenic environments, is one of the greatest challenges for dealing with NCDs. Conclusion: PHC centres play a vital role in NCDs prevention and control. Adequate human and financial resources and policy guidance are required to improve PHC performance in managing NCDs. Implementing best buy measures at national level provides synergies for NCDS control at PHC level.

Health and education are interrelated, and it is for this reason that we studied the education of migrant children. The Thai Government has ratified ‘rights’ to education for all children in Thailand since 2005. However, there are gaps in knowledge concerning the implementation of education policy for migrants, such as whether and to what extent migrant children receive education services according to policy intentions. The objective of this study is to explore the implementation of education policy for migrants and the factors that determine education choices among them. A cross-sectional qualitative design was applied. The main data collection technique was in-depth interviews with 34 key informants. Thematic analysis with an intersectionality approach was used. Ranong province was selected as the main study site. Results found that Migrant Learning Centers (MLCs) were the preferable choice for most migrant children instead of Thai Public Schools (TPSs), even though MLCs were not recognized as formal education sites. The main reason for choosing MLCs was because MLCs provided a more culturally sensitive service. Teaching in MLCs was done in Myanmar’s language and the MLCs offer a better chance to pursue higher education in Myanmar if migrants migrate back to their homeland. However, MLCs still face budget and human resources inadequacies. School health promotion was underserviced in MLCs compared to TPSs. Dental service was underserviced in most MLCs and TPSs. Implicit discrimination against migrant children was noted. The Thai Government should view MLCs as allies in expanding education coverage to all children in the Thai territory. A participatory public policy process that engages all stakeholders, including education officials, health care providers, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), MLCs’ representatives, and migrants themselves is needed to improve the education standards of MLCs, keeping their culturally-sensitive strengths.

Background: Since 2020, Thailand has experienced four waves of COVID-19. By 31 January 2022, there were 2.4 million cumulative cases and 22,176 deaths nationwide. This study assessed the governance and policy responses adapted to different sizes of the pandemic outbreaks and other challenges.Methods: A qualitative study was applied, including literature reviews and in-depth interviews with 17 multi-sectoral actors purposively identified from those who were responsible for pandemic control and vaccine rollout. We applied deductive approaches using health systems building blocks, and inductive approaches using analysis of in-depth interview content, where key content formed sub-themes, and different sub-themes formed the themes of the study.Findings: Three themes emerged from this study. First, the large scale of COVID-19 infections, especially the Delta strain in 2021, challenged the functioning of the health system’s capacity to respond to cases and maintain essential health services. The Bangkok local government insufficiently performed due to its limited capacity, ineffective multi-sectoral collaboration, and high levels of vulnerability in the population. However, adequate financing, universal health coverage, and health workforce professionalism and commitment were key enabling factors that supported the health system. Second, the population’s vulnerability exacerbated infection spread, and protracted political conflicts and political interference resulted in the politicization of pandemic control measures and vaccine roll-out; all were key barriers to effective pandemic control. Third, various innovations and adaptive capacities minimized the supply-side gaps, while social capital and civil society engagement boosted community resilience.Conclusion: This study identifies key governance gaps including in public communication, managing infodemics, and inadequate coordination with Bangkok local government, and between public and private sectors on pandemic control and health service provisions. The Bangkok government had limited capacity in light of high levels of population vulnerability. These gaps were widened by political conflicts and interference. Key strengths are universal health coverage with full funding support, and health workforce commitment, innovations, and capacity to adapt interventions to the unfolding emergency. Existing social capital and civil society action increases community resilience and minimizes negative impacts on the population.