Although precipitation extremes exert a major influence on populations and the environment, trend analysis for the entire Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP) has not previously been undertaken. In this study, meteorological data from 83 weather stations was used to analyze the temporal trends and spatial distribution of 10 extreme precipitation indices over the QTP during 1975–2014. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to determine significances and magnitudes of station trends. Spatially, stations recording increasing trends were mainly distributed in the southwestern, central and northern regions. Stations with decreasing trends were centered on the eastern and southeastern areas. Temporally, all indices had an increasing trend except for consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) during the study period. The contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation showed a significant increasing trend. These findings may be due to the complex interaction between the large-scale circulation and topography. In general, the changes of extreme precipitation indicated an enhanced tendency, with the frequency, intensity and amount of heavy precipitation increasing over time. Furthermore, altitude dependency of extreme precipitation does not exist in QTP, with topography effects on changes in precipitation extremes being more obvious in the higher elevation, flat, and hill stations.

The Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris L. var. mongolica Litv.) was first introduced to the southeastern Horqin sandy land in the mid-1950s. Since then, it has been widely planted and has become the most important conifer species in Northern China, providing significant ecological, economic and social benefits. However, its function in sequestering carbon at different developmental stages has been little studied. In this study, twenty plots inventory and destructive sampling of eight trees were conducted in 12-, 19-, 34-, 48- and 58-year-old Mongolian pine stands of China. Allometric biomass equations (ABEs) for tree components were established and used to determine the magnitude and distribution of tree biomass and carbon density. The carbon density of the understory, forest floor and soil was also determined. The ABEs with age as the second variable could simply and accurately determine the biomass of plantation tree branches, foliage and fruit, which were considerably influenced by age. With increasing stand age, the proportion of stem biomass to total tree biomass increased from 22.2% in the 12-year-old stand to 54.2% in the 58-year-old stand, and the proportion of understory biomass to total ecosystem biomass decreased, with values of 7.5%, 4.6%, 4.4%, 4.1% and 3.0% in the five stands. The biomass of the forest floor was 0.00, 1.12, 2.04, 6.69 and 3.65 Mg ha⁻¹ in the five stands. The ecosystem carbon density was 40.2, 73.4, 92.9, 89.9 and 87.3 Mg ha⁻¹ in the 12-, 19-, 34-, 48-, and 58-year-old stands, in which soil carbon density accounted for the largest proportion, with values of 67.4%, 76.8%, 73.2%, 63.4%, and 57.7% respectively. The Mongolian pine had the potential for carbon sequestration during its development, especially in the early stages, however, in the later growth stage, the ecosystem carbon density decreased slightly.

Based on the daily precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations, 11 extreme precipitation indices were selected, categorized and calculated; the temporal and spatial patterns in these indices and their teleconnections with the large-scale circulations were analyzed by the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test; and Sen’s slope estimator and linear regression for the period of 1960–2014 were calculated. The results indicated that all extreme precipitation indices had spatial patterns decreasing from the southeastern to the northwestern parts of the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR), except for the consecutive dry days (CDD), which exhibited a reverse spatial pattern. At the whole-region scale, most extreme precipitation indices showed an insignificant decreasing trend, with exceptions in the intensity indices (RX1day and RX5day) with a statistical significance at the 90% confidence level. The total annual precipitation showed a general shift towards a drier climate in the study area. Spatially, all indices for extreme precipitation showed decreasing trends at most stations, except for simple daily intensity index (SDII) and heavy precipitation days (R10). The change in extreme precipitation may be affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Better understanding of extreme precipitation for the BTSSR may be useful in the regional planning for ecological restoration and water management.

Ulmus pumila-dominated temperate savanna is an important tree-grass complex ecosystem in the Otindag sand land, northern China. To date, few investigations have been undertaken on the spatial patterns and structure of this ecosystem and its driving factors under different grazing pressures. The objective of our study therefore is to explore whether grazing has affected the population structure/pattern of woody plants and shrub encroachment in a temperate savanna ecosystem. Results indicate that species richness and seedlings decreased with increasing grazing pressure. An increase in grazing pressure did not significantly affect adult-tree density, but it hindered the normal regeneration of U. pumila seedlings, further inducing population decline. U. pumila seedlings had a more significant aggregated distribution than juvenile or adult trees. The adult and juvenile trees had an aggregated distribution at the small scale and a random distribution at the large scale. Shrubs also showed a significant aggregated distribution. No clear effect on the spatial patterns of adult trees was observed; however, there was a noticeable effect for juveniles and seedlings under different grazing pressures. U. pumila seedlings had a positive association with their juveniles and Spiraea aquilegifolia, but a negative association with Caragana microphylla. Shrub encroachment occurred with decreasing grazing pressures. In conclusion, overgrazing led to the decline of U. pumila population, but the decrease in grazing pressure increased shrub encroachment in the temperate savanna ecosystem. Moderate grazing management may be a better way to enhance the stability of U. pumila population and reduce shrub encroachment.

Wildfire is essential in altering land ecosystems’ structures, processes, and functions. As a critical disturbance in the China–Mongolia–Russia cross-border area, it is vital to understand the potential drivers of wildfires and predict where wildfires are more likely to occur. This study assessed factors affecting wildfire using the Random Forest (RF) model. No single factor played a decisive role in the incidence of wildfires. However, the climatic variables were most critical, dominating the occurrence of wildfires. The probability of wildfire occurrence was simulated and predicted using the Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The particle swarm optimization (PSO) model and genetic algorithm (GA) were used to optimize the ANFIS model. The hybrid ANFIS models performed better than single ANFIS for the training and validation datasets. The hybrid ANFIS models, such as PSO-ANFIS and GA-ANFIS, overcome the over-fitting problem of the single ANFIS model at the learning stage of the wildfire pattern. The high classification accuracy and good model performance suggest that PSO-ANFIS can be used to predict the probability of wildfire occurrence. The probability map illustrates that high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the northeast part of the study area, especially the grassland and forest area of Dornod Province of Mongolia, Buryatia, and Chita state of Russia, and the northeast part of Inner Mongolia, China. The findings can be used as reliable estimates of the relative likelihood of wildfire hazards for wildfire management in the region covered or vicinity.

The response of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) to widespread irrigation is important to fully understand future regional climate changes and to infer adaptive management of agricultural water resources. The quantitative impact of irrigation on ET0 from 1960 to 2013 was evaluated using historical time series data of daily meteorological observations in the hyper-arid region of northwest China. The decreasing trends in ET0 were accelerated for meteorological stations in regions with oasis agriculture, especially in the summer and during the growing season. Irrigation led to a cooling effect on temperature, increased relative humidity and precipitation. All of these changes contributed to a larger decrease of ET0 trend. The findings of this study advance our insight into the effects of irrigation on dynamics in ET0 and meteorological factors. Further investigations to understand how ET0 responds to climate change and agricultural irrigation could provide guidance for determining effective measures of water resources for adapting to global change.