Worldwide, eutrophication and cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs are a great concern for water resources management. Coupling a catchment hydrological model and a lake model has been a strategy to assess the impact of land use, agricultural practices and climate change on water quality. However, research has mainly focused on large lakes, while urban reservoirs and their catchments, especially in tropical regions, are still poorly studied despite the wide range of ecosystem services they provide. An integrated modelling approach coupling the hydrological model Storm Water Management Model SWMM and the lake ecological model DYRESM-CAEDYM is proposed for Lake Pampulha (Brazil). Scenarios of increased imperviousness of the catchment and of reduction in the load of nutrients and total suspended solids (TSS) in dry weather inflow were simulated. Runoff water quality simulations presented a fair performance for TSS and ammonium (NH₄⁺) while the dynamics of total phosphorus (TP) and nitrate (NO₃⁻) were poorly captured. Phytoplankton dynamics in the lake were simulated with good accuracy (Normalized Mean Absolute Error, NMAE = 0.24 and r = 0.89 in calibration period; NMAE = 0.55 and r = 0.54 in validation period). The general trends of growth, decline and the magnitude of phytoplankton biomass were well represented most of the time. Scenario simulations suggest that TP reduction will decrease cyanobacteria biomass and delay its peaks as a consequence of orthophosphate (PO₄³⁻) concentration reduction in the lake surface layers. However, even decreasing TP load into Lake Pampulha by half would not be sufficient to achieve the water quality objective of a maximum concentration of 60 µg chla L⁻¹. Increased imperviousness in the catchment will raise runoff volume, TSS, TP and NO₃⁻ loads into Lake Pampulha and promote greater cyanobacteria biomass, mainly in the beginning of the wet season, because of additional nutrient input from catchment runoff. Recovering Lake Pampulha water quality will require the improvement of the sanitation system. The lake water quality improvement will also require more sustainable and nature-based solutions for urban drainage in order to reduce non-point pollution through infiltration and retention of stormwater and to enhance natural processes, such as chemical sorption, biodegradation and phytoremediation. The integrated modelling approach here proposed can be applied for other urban reservoirs taking advantage of existing knowledge on Lake Pampulha.

Understanding the major drivers of runoff water quality in urban areas is important for sustainable water management. In this study, runoff water quality in a catchment in Colombia and another in Brazil was monitored and related to rain, and meteorological variables through correlation and principal component analysis. High correlations were found between event mean concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP), as well as with total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and total organic carbon (TOC). The results indicated that TSS and TP were related to sediment transport in the catchment, while NTK and TOC were derived from point sources (improper wastewater disposal). Rain depth, maximum specific discharge, air temperature, and solar radiation were the main factors explaining variability of water quality. These results contribute to a better understanding of local processes driving runoff water quality, and bring valuable insights for modelling and management of stormwater in urban catchments.

RESUMO No processo de urbanização, o aumento na proporção de superfícies impermeabilizadas e as mudanças no uso do solo são responsáveis por maiores volumes e velocidades do escoamento superficial, refletindo em uma maior capacidade de arraste e em um maior aporte de nutrientes nos corpos d'água receptores. O objetivo deste trabalho foi implementar uma ferramenta matemática capaz de reproduzir o impacto de mudanças na bacia hidrográfica sobre a dinâmica do fitoplâncton em um lago urbano. Neste artigo são apresentados o desenvolvimento e os resultados de um modelo integrado constituído de um modelo hidrológico, para simular vazões escoadas em uma bacia hidrográfica, e de um modelo hidrodinâmico e ecológico, para simular a biomassa fitoplanctônica em um corpo d'água urbano. A Lagoa da Pampulha (Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais), escolhida como estudo de caso, foi intensamente monitorada, assim como sua bacia de drenagem, entre outubro de 2011 e junho de 2013. Os dados obtidos foram utilizados para calibrar e validar ambos os modelos. Os resultados obtidos com o modelo hidrológico mostraram-se coerentes com as medidas realizadas em campo (o coeficiente de Nash variou entre 0,70 e 0,88). O modelo da lagoa representou corretamente a evolução da comunidade fitoplanctônica (erro médio absoluto normalizado: 0,25-0,42 e o coeficiente de Pearson: 0,82-0,89; p<0,0001). O monitoramento e a modelagem da lagoa mostraram que a proliferação de cianobactérias é bastante perturbada pelas desestratificações térmicas que ocorrem na lagoa em virtude de eventos meteorológicos. A ferramenta de simulação desenvolvida possui potencial para avaliar diferentes cenários de mudança das condições climáticas e das características da bacia, podendo auxiliar na gestão dos corpos d'água situados em meio urbano.

Urban lakes and reservoirs provide important ecosystem services. However, their water quality is being affected by anthropogenic pressures. The thermal regime is a strong driver of the vertical transport of nutrients, phytoplankton and oxygen. Thermal stratification can modify biogeochemical processes. In this paper, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was implemented and validated with high-frequency measurement of water temperature. The simulation results were in agreement with the measurements. For all simulation period, the model performance was evaluated based on hourly values, presenting a maximum RMSE of 0.65 ºC and Relative Error of 2.08%. The results show that high-frequency measurement associated with a three-dimensional model could help to understand and identify the reasons for the changes in the thermal condition of a shallow urban lake. The impact of the stream inflow on the temperature was highlighted, showing that during higher discharge events, when the river temperature is colder than the lake water, it flows into the lake deeper layers. The inflow water sank to the deeper layers where the lake morphology changes. The model showed an impact along the entire lake, showing the importance of monitoring the inflow water temperature. This modelling tool could be further used to study specific patterns of reservoir hydrodynamics.