The maritime Internet of Things (IoT) has recently emerged as a revolutionary communication paradigm where a large number of moving vessels are closely interconnected in intelligent maritime networks. However, the tremendous growth of vessel trajectories, collected from the combined satellite-terrestrial AIS (automatic identification system) base stations, could lead to unsatisfactory maritime safety and efficacy. To promote smart traffic services in maritime IoT, it is necessary to accurately and robustly predict the spatiotemporal vessel trajectories. It is beneficial for collision avoidance, maritime surveillance, and abnormal behavior detection, etc. Motivated by the strong learning capacity of deep neural networks, this work proposes an AIS data-driven trajectory prediction framework, whose main component is a long short term memory (LSTM) network. In particular, the vessel traffic conflict situation modeling, generated using the dynamic AIS data and social force concept, is embedded into the LSTM network to guarantee high-accuracy vessel trajectory prediction. In addition, a mixed loss function is reconstructed to make our prediction results more reliable and robust in different navigation environments. Several quantitative and qualitative experiments have been implemented on realistic AIS-based vessel trajectories. Our results have demonstrated that the proposed method could achieve satisfactory prediction performance in terms of accuracy and robustness.

The revolutionary advances in machine learning and data mining techniques have contributed greatly to the rapid developments of maritime Internet of Things (IoT). In maritime IoT, the spatio-temporal vessel trajectories, collected from the hybrid satellite-terrestrial automatic identification system (AIS) base stations, are of considerable importance for promoting traffic situation awareness and vessel traffic services, etc. To guarantee traffic safety and efficiency, it is essential to robustly and accurately predict the AIS-based vessel trajectories (i.e., the future positions of vessels) in maritime IoT. In this work, we propose a spatio-temporal multigraph convolutional network (STMGCN)-based trajectory prediction framework using the mobile edge computing (MEC) paradigm. Our STMGCN is mainly composed of three different graphs, which are, respectively, reconstructed according to the social force, the time to closest point of approach, and the size of surrounding vessels. These three graphs are then jointly embedded into the prediction framework by introducing the spatio-temporal multigraph convolutional layer. To further enhance the prediction performance, the self-attention temporal convolutional layer is proposed to further optimize STMGCN with fewer parameters. Owing to the high interpretability and powerful learning ability, STMGCN is able to achieve superior prediction performance in terms of both accuracy and robustness. The reliable prediction results are potentially beneficial for traffic safety management and intelligent vehicle navigation in MEC-enabled maritime IoT.

The accurate and robust prediction of vessel traffic flow is gaining importance in maritime intelligent transportation system (ITS), such as vessel traffic services, maritime spatial planning, and traffic safety management, etc. To achieve fine-grained vessel traffic flow prediction, we will first generate the maritime traffic network (which is essentially a graph), and then propose a graph-driven neural network. In particular, to represent various correlations among spatio-temporal vessel traffic flow, we tend to extract the feature points (i.e., starting, way and ending points) by utilizing the knowledge of vessel positioning data. These feature points are essentially related to the geometrical structures of massive vessel trajectories collected from massive automatic identification system (AIS) records, contributing to the generation of maritime traffic network. We then propose a spatio-temporal multi-graph convolutional network (STMGCN)-based vessel traffic flow prediction method by exploiting multiple types of inherent correlations in the generated maritime graph. The proposed STMGCN mainly contains one spatial multi-graph convolutional layer and two temporal gated convolutional layers, beneficial for extracting spatial and temporal traffic flow patterns. The main benefit of our graph-driven prediction method is that it takes full advantage of the maritime graph and multi-graph learning. Comprehensive experiments have been implemented on realistic AIS dataset to compare our method with several state-of-the-art prediction methods. The fine-grained prediction results have demonstrated our superior performance in terms of both accuracy and robustness.