Trees inside and outside forests contribute to food security in Africa in the face of climate variability and change. They also provide environmental and social benefits as part of farming livelihoods. Varied ecological and socio-economic conditions have given rise to specific forms of agroforestry in different parts of Africa. Policies that institutionally segregate forest from agriculture miss opportunities for synergy at landscape scale. More explicit inclusion of agroforestry and the integration of agriculture and forestry agendas in global initiatives on climate change adaptation and mitigation can increase their effectiveness. We identify research gaps and overarching research questions for the contributions in this special issue that may help shape current opinion in environmental sustainability

Temperate fruit and nut species require exposure to chilling conditions in winter to break dormancy and produce high yields. Adequate winter chill is an important site characteristic for commercial orchard operations, and quantifying chill is crucial for orchard management. Climate change may impact winter chill. With a view to adapting orchards to climate change, this review assesses the state of knowledge in modelling winter chill and the performance of various modelling approaches. It then goes on to present assessments of past and projected future changes in winter chill for fruit growing regions and discusses potential adaptation strategies. Some of the most common approaches to modelling chill, in particular the Chilling Hours approach, are very sensitive to temperature increases, and have also been found to perform poorly, especially in warm growing regions. The Dynamic Model offers a more complex but also more accurate alternative, and use of this model is recommended. Chill changes projected with the Dynamic Model are typically much less severe than those estimated with other models. Nevertheless, projections of future chill consistently indicate substantial losses for the warmest growing regions, while temperate regions will experience relatively little change, and cold regions may even see chill increases. Growers can adapt to lower chill by introducing low-chill cultivars, by influencing orchard microclimates and by applying rest-breaking chemicals. Given substantial knowledge gaps in tree dormancy, accurate models are still a long way off. Since timely adaptation is essential for growers of long-lived high-value perennials, alternative ways of adaptation planning are needed. Climate analogues, which are present-day manifestations of future projected climates, can be used for identifying and testing future-adapted species and cultivars. Horticultural researchers and practitioners should work towards the development and widespread adoption of better chill accumulation and dormancy models, for facilitating quantitatively appropriate adaptation planning

Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields. We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the “Dynamic Model” and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG. The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops.

Significance: The novelty of the information of this manuscript resides in the addition of species distribution modeling and paleobiolinguistics data, combined with genetic and existing archaeobotanical data, to trace back the geographic origin of a crop, namely domesticated pepper,Capsicum annuum. Furthermore, the utilization of a geographic framework of reference for the four types of data has allowed us to combine these independent data types into a single hypothesis about the origin of this crop. Our results suggest that food crops in Mexico had a multiregional origin with chili pepper originating in central-east Mexico, maize in the Balsas River Basin and common bean in the Lerma–Santiago River Basin, resembling similar finds for the Fertile Crescent and China.

Many fruit and nut trees must fulfill a chilling requirement to break their winter dormancy and resume normal growth in spring. Several models exist for quantifying winter chill, and growers and researchers often tacitly assume that the choice of model is not important and estimates of species chilling requirements are valid across growing regions. To test this assumption, Safe Winter Chill (the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of years) was calculated for 5,078 weather stations around the world, using the Dynamic Model [in Chill Portions (CP)], the Chilling Hours (CH) Model and the Utah Model [Utah Chill Units (UCU)]. Distributions of the ratios between different winter chill metrics were mapped on a global scale. These ratios should be constant if the models were strictly proportional. Ratios between winter chill metrics varied substantially, with the CH/CP ratio ranging between 0 and 34, the UCU/CP ratio between −155 and +20 and the UCU/CH ratio between −10 and +5. The models are thus not proportional, and chilling requirements determined in a given location may not be valid elsewhere. The Utah Model produced negative winter chill totals in many Subtropical regions, where it does not seem to be useful. Mean annual temperature and daily temperature range influenced all winter chill ratios, but explained only between 12 and 27% of the variation. Data on chilling requirements should always be amended with information on the location and experimental conditions of the study in which they were determined, ideally including site-specific conversion factors between winter chill models. This would greatly facilitate the transfer of such information across growing regions, and help prepare growers for the impact of climate change.