Reducing uncertainty in design flood estimates is an essential part of flood risk planning and management. This study presents results from flood frequency estimates and associated uncertainties for five commonly used probability distribution functions, extreme value type 1 (EV1), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized pareto distribution (GPD), log normal (LN) and log Pearson type 3 (LP3). The study was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and bootstrapping (BS) methods for the 10 river catchments in eastern Australia. The parameters were estimated by applying the method of moments (for LP3, LN, and EV1) and L-moments (for GEV and GPD). Three-parameter distributions (e.g., LP3, GEV, and GPD) demonstrate a consistent estimation of confidence interval (CI), whereas two-parameter distributions show biased estimation. The results of this study also highlight the difficulty in flood frequency analysis, e.g., different probability distributions perform quite differently even in a smaller geographical area.

Food security is considered as the most important global challenge. Therefore, identifying long-term drivers of food security and their connections is essential to steer policymakers determining policies for future food security and sustainable development. Given the complexity and uncertainty of multidimensional food security, quantifying the extent of uncertainty is vital. In this study, we investigated the uncertainty of a coupled hydrologic food security model to examine the impacts of climatic warming on food production (rice, cereal and wheat) in a mild temperature study site in China. In addition to varying temperature, our study also investigated the impacts of three CO₂ emission scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5—on food production. Our ultimate objective was to quantify the uncertainty in a coupled hydrologic food security model and report the sources and timing of uncertainty under a warming climate using a coupled hydrologic food security model tested against observed food production years. Our study shows an overall increasing trend in rice, cereal and wheat production under a warming climate. Crop yield data from China are used to demonstrate the extent of uncertainty in food security modeling. An innovative and systemic approach is developed to quantify the uncertainty in food security modeling. Crop yield variability with the rising trend of temperature also demonstrates a new insight in quantifying uncertainty in food security modeling.

This study investigates formation homogeneous regions in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) and compares two RFFA methods, the quantile regression technique (QRT) and the index flood method (IFM). A total of 201 gauged stations from southeast Australia were adopted in this study. Multivariate statistical techniques were applied to form candidate regions. Also, regions are formed in the L-moments space (such as the L coefficient of variation (LCV) and L coefficient of skewness (LCS) of annual maximum flood data). Hosking and Wallis test statistics were used to find discordant sites and for testing the homogeneity of the assumed regions. No homogeneous regions were found in southeast Australia based on catchment characteristics data; however, homogeneous regions can be formed in the space of L-moments. It was found that regions formed in the L-moments space have little link with the catchment characteristics data space. The QRT provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than the IFM.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology provides flood forecasting and warning services across Australia for most major rivers in Australia, in cooperation with other government, local agencies and emergency services. As part of this service, the Bureau issues a flood watch product to provide early advice on a developing situation that may lead to flooding up to 4 days prior to an event. This service is based on (a) an ensemble of available Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) rainfall forecasts, (b) antecedent soil moisture, stream and dam conditions, (c) hydrological forecasts using event-based models and (d) expert meteorological and hydrological input by Bureau of Meteorology staff, to estimate the risk of reaching pre-specified river height thresholds at locations across the continent. A flood watch provides information about a developing weather situation including forecasting rainfall totals, catchments at risk of flooding, and indicative severity where required. Although there is uncertainty attached to a flood watch, its early dissemination can help individuals and communities to be better prepared should flooding eventuate. This paper investigates the utility of forecasts of daily gridded national runoff to inform the risk of riverine flooding up to 7 days in advance. The gridded national water balance model (AWRA-L) runoff outputs generated using post-processed 9-day Numerical Weather Prediction hindcasts were evaluated as to whether they could accurately predict exceedance probabilities of runoff at gauged locations. The approach was trialed over 75 forecast locations across North East Australia (Queensland). Forecast 3-, 5- and 7-day accumulations of runoff over the catchment corresponding to each location were produced, identifying whether accumulated runoff reached either 95% or 99% historical levels (analogous to minor, moderate and major threshold levels). The performance of AWRA-L runoff-based flood likelihood was benchmarked against that based on precipitation only (i.e., not rainfall–runoff transformation). Both products were evaluated against the observed runoff data measured at the site. Our analysis confirmed that this runoff-based flood likelihood guidance could be used to support the generation of flood watch products.

This study calculates the carbon footprint of chemical coagulants and operational energy for residential and industrial (whey digestion) wastewater treatment using ReCiPe 2016 methodology within a clearly defined system boundary from cradle to gate. Data from water treatment facilities have been analyzed to quantify environmental impacts and identify sensitive design parameters. The estimated emission of treating 1 m³ of wastewater from whey digestion (7.1195 kg CO₂ eq) is over 50 times higher than that of a residential one (0.1349 kg CO₂ eq). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) reveals that iron (III) chloride (40% in H₂O) and operational electricity consumption have higher impact categories compared to other design components. The uncertainty analysis indicates that electricity consumption (r = 0.4) is the dominant contributor to emissions, with a mean value of 4.22 kg CO₂-eq per m³ of wastewater treated. In contrast, iron (III) chloride emerges as the most sensitive parameter (r = 0.88) with small variations in dosing causing a disproportionately large impact on overall emissions. Therefore, the optimized use of an iron-based coagulant, the adoption of membrane electrolysis, and the integration of renewable electricity into the process supply chains have been identified as effective strategies for reducing emissions.