The objective of the present study is to characterize the drought occurrences in a region comprising Paraguay, southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina. To recognize the drought occurrences the standardized precipitation index at the time-scales of 3 and 6 months was applied to the rainfall records from 1961 to 2011 at 51 rain gauges located in that region. After a drought regionalization using principal component analysis, a new approach, the Kernel occurrence rate estimation method coupled with bootstrap confidence band was used to quantify yearly drought occurrence rates. The study also includes the results of an additional and new approach based on rainfall threshold surfaces aimed at recognizing and monitoring the drought occurrence at the early stages of their development. For both time-scales, the study allowed identification of some spatial homogeneous regions regarding the severe droughts. In some of those regions, trends in the severe drought frequency occurrence were identified. The rainfall threshold surfaces, besides providing an adequate interpretation of the meaning of the standard precipitation index, can be quite easily and reliably utilized to identify the drought episodes.
The paper refers to a study on droughts in a small Portuguese Atlantic island, namely Madeira. The study aimed at addressing the problem of dependent drought events and at developing a copula-based bivariate cumulative distribution function for coupling drought duration and magnitude. The droughts were identified based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed at three and six-month timescales at 41 rain gauges distributed over the island and with rainfall data from January 1937 to December 2016. To remove the spurious and short duration-dependent droughts a moving average filter (MA) was used. The run theory was applied to the smoothed SPI series to extract the drought duration, magnitude, and interarrival time for each drought category. The smoothed series were also used to identify homogeneous regions based on principal components analysis (PCA). The study showed that MA is necessary for an improved probabilistic interpretation of drought analysis in Madeira. It also showed that despite the small area of the island, three distinct regions with different drought temporal patterns can be identified. The copulas approach proved that the return period of droughts events can differ significantly depending on the way the relationship between drought duration and magnitude is accounted for.
A variety of drought indices were developed to monitor different types of drought, a significant natural hazard with multidimensional impacts. However, no single drought index can capture all dimensions of drought, necessitating a composite drought index (CDI) that integrates a range of indicators. This study proposes a CDI using principal component analysis (PCA) and a temporal dependence assessment (TDA) applied to time series of drought indices in a spatially distributed approach at the basin level. The indices considered include the Simplified Standardized Precipitation Index (SSPI), Simplified Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SSPEI), soil moisture (SM), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and streamflow (SF) from two climatically distinct small-sized basins in Portugal. Lag correlation analyses revealed a high contemporaneous correlation between SSPI and SSPEI (r > 0.8) and weaker but significant lagged correlations with SF (r > 0.5) and SM (r > 0.4). NDVI showed lagged and negligible correlations with the other indices. PCA was iteratively applied to the lag correlation-removed matrix of drought indices for all grid points, repeating the procedure for several SSPI/SSPEI time scales. The first principal component (PC1), capturing the majority of the matrix’s variability, was extracted and represented as the CDI for each grid point. Alternatively, the CDI was computed by combining the first and second PCs, using their variances as contribution weights. As PC1 shows its highest loadings on SSPI and SSPEI, with median loading values above 0.52 in all grid points, the proposed CDI demonstrated the highest agreement with SSPI and SSPEI across all grid cells, followed by SM, SF, and NDVI. Comparing the CDI’s performance with an independent indicator such as PDSI, which is not involved in the CDI’s construction, validated the CDI’s ability to comprehensively monitor drought in the studied basins with different hydroclimatological characteristics. Further validation is suggested by including other drought indicators/variables such as crop yield, soil moisture from different layers, and/or groundwater levels.
Droughts are among the major natural hazards that are spreading to many parts of the world, with huge multi-dimensional impacts. An extensive analysis of drought phenomenon is presented for continental Croatia based on a meteorological E-OBS gridded dataset (0.25° × 0.25°), within the period of 1950–2022. The drought events were characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), applied to different time-scales (6 and 12 months), in order to describe the subannual and annual variability of drought. The spatiotemporal patterns of drought are obtained through principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering (KMC) applied to the SPEI field. An areal drought evolution analysis and the changes in the frequency of occurrence of the periods under drought conditions were achieved using a kernel occurrence rate estimator (KORE). The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, coupled with the Sen’s slope estimator test, are applied to the SPEI series in order to quantify the drought trends throughout the country. According to the history drought events and considering the different morphoclimatic characteristics of the study area, the results showed that Croatia could be divided into three different and spatially well-defined regions with specific temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts (central northern, eastern and southern regions). A manifest increase is shown in the percentage of area affected by drought, as well as in the yearly drought occurrences rates, in both central northern and eastern regions, and an evident decrease is shown in the southern region for both 6- and 12-month SPEI time-scales. In the observation of the drought’s temporal characteristics, it was found that downward trends expressing increasing drought severities were strongly significant in northern and eastern regions, while a few significant upward trends were seen in the southern region. From this study, it is possible to obtain a broader view of the historical behaviour of droughts in Croatia, with the results providing useful support for drought risk assessment and decision-making processes.
In regions where drought has become a common occurrence for most of the year and where agriculture is the main economic activity, the development of hydro-agricultural systems has made it possible to improve water management. Despite this, the intensification of agriculture combined with climate change leads to a potential decrease in water quality and water management practices are essential to improve agro-environmental sustainability. The aim of this study was to assess the water quality for irrigation and potential ecological status of the reservoir (using support chemical parameters). The results showed biological oxygen demand values above the maximum stipulated for an excellent ecological potential in all sampling periods except April 2018 and December 2020 (with the highest values of 10 mg L−1 O2 in dry periods). Most of the total nitrogen concentrations (TN) surpassed those stipulated for a good ecological potential (0.96 ≤ TN ≤ 2.44 mg L−1 N). In fact, TN and total suspended solids were the main parameters used for water classification. From the perspective of irrigation and according to FAO guidelines regarding infiltration rate, these waters presented light to moderate levels of restrictions. Thus, the results revealed that the decrease in the water quality status and its possible impact on the soil infiltration rate can be related, in part, to the meteorological conditions and to the intensive agricultural practices developed around the drainage basin. Despite that, as the Lage reservoir is part of Brinches–Enxoé hydraulic circuit, the water recirculation is also an important factor that may have affected the results obtained. Furthermore, the experimental design, integrating ecological status, irrigation parameters, and the impact on soil systems; using the same parameters from different perspectives; allowed us to have a global idea of water contamination and its impact on agroecosystems, improving river basin management processes.