High-accuracy flood susceptibility maps play a crucial role in flood vulnerability assessment and risk mitigation. This study assesses the potential application of three new ensemble models, which are integrations of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), certainty factor (CF) and weight of evidence (WoE). The experimental area is the Trotuș River basin in Romania. The database for the present research consisted of 12 flood-related factors and 172 flood locations. The quality of the models was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) values and the ROC curve (AUC). The results showed that the ANFIS-CF model and the ANFIS-WOE model have a high prediction capacity (accuracy > 91.6%). Therefore, we concluded that ANFIS-CF and ANFIS-WoE are two new tools that should be considered for future studies related to flood susceptibility modelling.
The aim of the present study was to explore the correlation between the land-use/land cover change and the flash-flood potential changes in Zăbala catchment (Romania) between 1989 and 2019. In this regard, the efficiency of GIS, remote sensing and machine learning techniques in detecting spatial patterns of the relationship between the two variables was tested. The paper elaborated upon an answer to the increase in flash flooding frequency across the study area and across the earth due to the occurred land-use/land-cover changes, as well as due to the present climate change, which determined the multiplication of extreme meteorological phenomena. In order to reach the above-mentioned purpose, two land-uses/land-covers (for 1989 and 2019) were obtained using Landsat image processing and were included in a relative evolution indicator (total relative difference-synthetic dynamic land-use index), aggregated at a grid-cell level of 1 km2. The assessment of runoff potential was made with a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, which was trained for 1989 and 2019 with the help of 10 flash-flood predictors, 127 flash-flood locations, and 127 non-flash-flood locations. For the year 1989, the high and very high surface runoff potential covered around 34% of the study area, while for 2019, the same values accounted for approximately 46%. The MLP models performed very well, the area under curve (AUC) values being higher than 0.837. Finally, the land-use/land-cover change indicator, as well as the relative evolution of the flash flood potential index, was included in a geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results of the GWR highlights that high values of the Pearson coefficient (r) occupied around 17.4% of the study area. Therefore, in these areas of the Zăbala river catchment, the land-use/land-cover changes were highly correlated with the changes that occurred in flash-flood potential.
The importance of identifying the areas vulnerable for both floods and flash-floods is an important component of risk management. The assessment of vulnerable areas is a major challenge in the scientific world. The aim of this study is to provide a methodology-oriented study of how to identify the areas vulnerable to floods and flash-floods in the Buzău river catchment by computing two indices: the Flash-Flood Potential Index (FFPI) for the mountainous and the Sub-Carpathian areas, and the Flood Potential Index (FPI) for the low-altitude areas, using the frequency ratio (FR), a bivariate statistical model, the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLP), and the ensemble model MLP–FR. A database containing historical flood locations (168 flood locations) and the areas with torrentiality (172 locations with torrentiality) was created and used to train and test the models. The resulting models were computed using GIS techniques, thus resulting the flood and flash-flood vulnerability maps. The results show that the MLP–FR hybrid model had the most performance. The use of the two indices represents a preliminary step in creating flood vulnerability maps, which could represent an important tool for local authorities and a support for flood risk management policies.
Scientific papers present a wide range of methods of flood analysis and forecasting. Floods are a phenomenon with significant socio-economic implications, for which many researchers try to identify the most appropriate methodologies to analyze their temporal and spatial development. This research aims to create an overview of flood analysis and forecasting methods. The study is based on the need to select and group papers into well-defined methodological categories. The article provides an overview of recent developments in the analysis of flood methodologies and shows current research directions based on this overview. The study was performed taking into account the information included in the Web of Science Core Collection, which brought together 1326 articles. The research concludes with a discussion on the relevance, ease of application, and usefulness of the methodologies.
The legal or illegal losses and the natural disturbance regime of forest areas in Romania generate major imbalances in territorial systems. The main purpose of the current research was to examine the dynamics of the complexity of forests under the influence of forest loss but also to compare the applicability of Higuchi dimension. In this study, two fractal algorithms, Higuchi 1D (H1D) and Higuchi 2D (H2D), were used to determine qualitative and quantitative aspects based on images obtained from a Geographic Information System (GIS) database. The H1D analysis showed that the impact of forest loss has led to increased fragmentation of the forests, generating a continuous increase in the complexity of forest areas. The H2D analysis identified the complexity of forest morphology by the relationship between each pixel and the neighboring pixels from analyzed images, which allowed us to highlight the local characteristics of the forest loss. The H1D and H2D methods showed that they have the speed and simplicity required for forest loss analysis. Using this methodology complementary to GIS analyses, a relevant status of how forest loss occurred and their impact on tree-cover dynamics was obtained.