In recent decades, there has been unprecedented development of hydropower in China, especially in the Yangtze River Basin, which has changed the hydrological and hydraulic conditions of natural rivers and has an impact on water quality. However, the spatial-–temporal extent, factors, and the reasons behind the influence of cascade hydropower development are not clear. The six hydropower stations on the main course of the middle reach of the Jinsha River in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces have been in joint operation for seven years, and the impact of cascade hydropower development on water quality has begun to appear. In this paper, in order to accurately determine the causal relationship between cascade hydropower development and water quality changes on the middle reaches of the Jinsha River and their trends using regression discontinuity analysis, we collected monitoring data on water quality from 2004 to 2019. The results show that cascade hydropower development on the middle reach of the Jinsha River led to a decrease in TP concentration in that section of the river and an increase in the concentration of COD_Mn and NH₃-N. Furthermore, increase in sedimentation following the impoundment of cascade hydropower development is the main reason for the decrease in TP concentration, and the regional economic and social development driven by cascade hydropower development are external sources of the increase in the concentration of COD_Mn and NH₃-N. In addition, influenced by rainfall, the concentrations of COD_Mn and TP are higher in the rainy season and lower in the dry season, which is directly related to the input of non-point-source pollutants in the basin during the former. This study established a model to accurately judge the causal relationship between cascade hydropower development and water quality changes in the basin, which was then used to assess the impact of cascade hydropower development on water quality. Our results provide a basis for the formulation and implementation of a water quality protection plan for the middle reach of the Jinsha River and can also provide a basis for the development of cascade hydropower in other river basins.

The water quality of Lake Erhai has deteriorated in recent decades due to socioeconomic development in the lake basin. After the massive implementation of water environmental protection measures in Lake Erhai in 2016, the trend of water quality deterioration has been curbed and the intensity and frequency of algal blooms has decreased. However, water quality monitoring data show that pollutant concentrations in Lake Erhai still exceed acceptable values, and there is a risk of water quality standard limits being further exceeded in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to systematically study the variability characteristics of water quality in Lake Erhai to provide practical methods to predict the future evolution of water quality. Based on water quality monitoring data from 2009 to 2019, the current water quality characteristics of Lake Erhai were analyzed, and a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality mathematical model was built to predict the water quality in 2025. The results showed that the total phosphorus (TP) concentration declined after 2016, mainly due to the significant reduction of TP entering the lake due to pollution interception. However, the concentrations of the potassium permanganate index (COD_Mn) and total nitrogen (TN) increased after 2016, demonstrating that the pollution control measures have had little effect on the improvement of COD_Mn and TN. The spatial and temporal distribution of pollutants showed that the water quality in winter and spring was better than in summer and autumn, and the water quality in the southern lake was better than in the northern lake. This analysis indicates that non-point source pollution remains the main source of pollution in Lake Erhai, and that rainfall is the main driving force of pollutants exceeding the water quality standard. According to the water quality predictions, without additional pollution control measures, pollutant concentrations in Lake Erhai will exceed the Class II water quality standard by 2025. This study analyzes the water quality characteristics, predicts the direction of future water quality changes, and provides a theoretical basis for the future water quality protection of Lake Erhai.