The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible.

Accident models are mental models that make it possible to understand the causality of adverse events. This research was conducted based on five major objectives: (i) to systematically review the relevant literature about AcciMap, STAMP, and FRAM models and synthesize the theoretical and experimental findings, as well as the main research flows; (ii) to examine the standalone and hybrid applications for modeling the leading factors of the accident and the behavior of sociotechnical systems; (iii) to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of exploring the research opportunities; (iv) to describe the safety and accident models in terms of safety-I-II-III; and finally, to investigate the impact of the systemic models’ applications in enhancing the system’s sustainability. The systematic models can identify contributory factors, functions, and relationships in different system levels which helps to increase the awareness of systems and enhance the sustainability of safety management. Furthermore, their hybrid extensions can significantly overcome the limitations of these models and provide more reliable information. Applying the safety II and III concepts and their approaches in the system can also progress their safety levels. Finally, the ethical control of sophisticated systems suggests that further research utilizing these methodologies should be conducted to enhance system analysis and safety evaluations.

Autonomous ships represent an emerging paradigm within the maritime sector, poised to bring multiple advantages. Although numerous prototypes have been developed, the deployment of large autonomous ships has predominantly remained confined to domestic waters or specialized military applications. The extensive adoption of autonomous ships is hampered by several challenges, primarily centered around safety. However, the direct assessment of autonomous technologies on large-scale vessels can be very costly. Small-scale autonomy testing may provide a cheaper option. This study reviews the current small autonomous ship models used by maritime researchers and industry practitioners. It aims to evaluate how these autonomous models currently augment and can augment safety assurances on larger autonomous ships. The review identifies relevant very small Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs), the main research groups behind them and their applications. Then, the current use of USVs for safety and safety assurance is analyzed. Finally, the paper suggests innovative strategies and research directions for using USVs for the safety assurance of larger autonomous ships.