In the drought-prone Upper Blue Nile River (UBNR) basin of Ethiopia, soil erosion by water results in significant consequences that also affect downstream countries. However, there have been limited comprehensive studies of this and other basins with diverse agroecologies. We analyzed the variability of gross soil loss and sediment yield rates under present and expected future conditions using a newly devised methodological framework. The results showed that the basin generates an average soil loss rate of 27.5tha-1yr-1 and a gross soil loss of ca. 473Mtyr-1, of which, at least 10% comes from gully erosion and 26.7% leaves Ethiopia. In a factor analysis, variation in agroecology (average factor score=1.32) and slope (1.28) were the two factors most responsible for this high spatial variability. About 39% of the basin area is experiencing severe to very severe (>30tha-1yr-1) soil erosion risk, which is strongly linked to population density. Severe or very severe soil erosion affects the largest proportion of land in three subbasins of the UBNR basin: Blue Nile 4 (53.9%), Blue Nile 3 (45.1%), and Jema Shet (42.5%). If appropriate soil and water conservation practices targeted ca. 77.3% of the area with moderate to severe erosion (>15tha-1yr-1), the total soil loss from the basin could be reduced by ca. 52%. Our methodological framework identified the potential risk for soil erosion in large-scale zones, and with a more sophisticated model and input data of higher spatial and temporal resolution, results could be specified locally within these risk zones. Accurate assessment of soil erosion in the UBNR basin would support sustainable use of the basin's land resources and possibly open up prospects for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region.

Land degradation by water and wind erosion is a serious problem worldwide. Despite the significant amount of research on this topic, quantifying these processes at large- or regional-scale remains difficult. Furthermore, very few studies provide integrated assessments of land susceptibility to both water and wind erosion. Therefore, this study investigated the spatial patterns of water and wind erosion risks, first separately and then combined, in the drought-prone region of East Africa using the best available datasets. As to water erosion, we adopted the spatially distributed version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and compared our estimates with plot-scale measurements and watershed sediment yield (SY) data. The order of magnitude of our soil loss estimates by water erosion is within the range of measured plot-scale data. Moreover, despite the fact that SY integrates different soil erosion and sediment deposition processes within watersheds, we observed a strong correlation of SY with our estimated soil loss rates (r² = 0.4). For wind erosion, we developed a wind erosion index by integrating five relevant factors using fuzzy logic technique. We compared this index with estimates of the frequency of dust storms, derived from long-term Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor Level-3 daily data. This comparison revealed an overall accuracy of 70%. According to our estimates, mean annual gross soil loss by water erosion amounts to 4 billion t, with a mean soil loss rate of 6.3 t ha^-1 yr^-1, of which ca. 50% was found to originate in Ethiopia. In terms of land cover, ca. 50% of the soil loss by water erosion originates from cropland (with a mean soil loss rate of 18.4 t ha^-1 yr^-1), which covers ca. 15% of the total area in the study region. Model results showed that nearly 10% of the East Africa region is subject to moderate or elevated water erosion risks (>10 t ha^-1 yr^-1). With respect to wind erosion, we estimated that around 25% of the study area is experiencing moderate or elevated wind erosion risks (equivalent to a frequency of dust storms >45 days yr^-1), of which Sudan and Somalia (which are dominated by bare/sparse vegetation cover) have the largest share (ca. 90%). In total, an estimated 8 million ha is exposed to moderate or elevated risks of soil erosion by both water and wind. The results of this study provide new insights on the spatial patterns of water and wind erosion risks in East Africa and can be used to prioritize areas where further investigations are needed and where remedial actions should be implemented.

Understanding the effect of land use and sustainable land management (SLM) practices on runoff and soil loss (SL) is essential for adopting suitable strategies to control soil erosion. The purpose of this study was to analyze runoff and SL from different land use types and evaluate the effectiveness of different SLM practices through monitoring runoff and sediment from 42 runoff plots (30 m × 6 m) in different agro-ecologies of the Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. Four treatments for croplands (control, soil bund, Fanya juu, and soil bund reinforced with grass) and three treatments for non-croplands (control, exclosure, and exclosure with trenches) were investigated during the rainy seasons. The results showed that runoff and SL varied greatly depending on agro-ecology, land use type, and SLM practice. Seasonal runoff ranged from 52 to 810 mm in 2015 and 37 to 898 mm in 2016, whereas SL ranged from 0.07 to 39.67 t ha-1 and 0.01 to 24.70 t ha-1. The highest rates were observed from untreated grazing land in the midland agro-ecology, largely because of heavy grazing and the occurrence of intense rain events. Runoff and SL were both significantly lower (P < 0.05) in SLM plots than in control plots. On average, seasonal runoff was reduced by 11% to 68%, and SL by 38% to 94% in SLM plots. Soil bund reinforced with grass in croplands and exclosure with trenches in non-croplands were found to be the most effective SLM practices for reducing both runoff and SL. Integrating structural and vegetative measures was therefore found to be the best way to control soil erosion and its consequences. Additional investigation is needed in consideration of ecological succession and other possible effects of these types of integrated measures, for example, the effects on soil properties, biomass, and biodiversity.

Information on the rate and pattern of urban expansion is required by urban planners to devise proper urban planning and management policy directions. This study evaluated the dynamics and spatial pattern of Mekelle City’s expansion in the past three decades (1984–2014). Multi-temporal Landsat images and Maximum Likelihood Classifier were used to produce decadal land use/land cover (LULC) maps. Changes in LULC and spatial pattern of urban expansion were analysed by post-classification change detection and spatial metrics, respectively. The results showed that in the periods 1984–1994, 1994–2004, and 2004–2014, the built-up area increased annually by 10%, 9%, and 8%, respectively; with an average annual increment of 19% (100 ha year⁻¹), from 531 ha in 1984 to 3524 ha in 2014. Between 1984 and 2014, about 88% of the gain in built-up area was from conversion of agricultural lands, which decreased by 39%. Extension of existing urban areas was the dominant growth type, which accounted for 54%, 75%, and 81% of the total new development during 1984–1994, 1994–2004, and 2004–2014, respectively. The spatial metrics analyses revealed urban sprawl, with increased heterogeneity and gradual dispersion in the outskirts of the city. The per capita land consumption rate (ha per person) increased from 0.009 in 1984 to 0.014 in 2014, indicating low density urban growth. Based on the prediction result, the current (2014) built-up area will double by 2035, and this is likely to have multiple socioeconomic and environmental consequences unless sustainable urban planning and development policies are devised.