Land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate variability are two major factors controlling hydrological responses. The present study analyzed the separate and combined effects of these two factors on annual surface runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) after validating the selected models in three drought-prone watersheds of the Upper Blue Nile basin: Kasiry (highland), Kecha (midland), and Sahi (lowland). LULC maps were produced from aerial photographs and very-high-resolution satellite images from 1982, 2005/06 and 2016/17. During 1982-2016/17 the area covered by natural vegetation showed dramatic decreases, ranging from 60.2% in Kasiry to 51.8% in Sahi. In contrast, increases in cultivated land ranged from 36.7% in Kasiry to 279.6% in Sahi; the smaller increase in Kasiry resulted from the conversion of a portion of the cultivated land to an Acacia decurrens plantation after 2006. The observed LULC changes over the study period resulted in runoff increases ranging from 4% in Kecha to 28.7% in Kasiry. Climate variability in terms of annual rainfall had no significant effect on estimated runoff; whereas both LULC change and climate variability had significant effect on estimated ET. Though climate variability increased ET from 33.6% in Kecha to 42.1% in Kasiry, the LULC change related to the reduction in natural vegetation had an offsetting effect, which led to overall decreases in ET ranging from 15.8% in Kasiry to 32.8% in Kecha watershed. As changes in LULC and climate are expected to intensify in the future, it is important to study further hydrological responses considering these changes to devise future sustainable land and water management strategies.

Soil erosion by water is one of the main environmental concerns in Ethiopia. Several studies have examined this at plot and watershed scales, but no systematic study of soil erosion severity and management solutions at national scale is available. This study investigated soil erosion and the potential of land-cover- and agroecology-specific land management practices in reducing soil loss through employing the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and the best available datasets. The mean rate of soil loss by water erosion in Ethiopia was estimated as 16.5 t ha-1 yr-1, with an annual gross soil loss of ca. 1.9 × 109 t, of which the net soil loss was estimated as ca. 410 × 106 t (22% of the gross soil loss). Soil loss varied across land cover types, 15 agroecological zones, and 10 river basins, with the main contributors in the respective analyses being cropland (ca. 23% of Ethiopia; 50% of the soil loss; mean soil loss rate of 36.5 t ha-1 yr-1), Moist Weyna Dega (ca. 10%; 20%; 33.3 t ha-1 yr-1), and the Abay basin (ca. 15%; 30%; 32.8 t ha-1 yr-1). Our results show that ca. 25% of Ethiopia (28 × 106 ha) has soil loss rates above 10 t ha-1 yr-1, which is higher than the tolerable soil loss limits estimated for Ethiopia. Ex-ante analysis revealed that implementation of land-cover- and agroecology-specific land management practices (level bunds, graded bunds, trenches, and exclosures combined with trenches and/or bunds) in such areas could reduce the mean soil loss rate from 16.5 t ha-1 yr-1 to 5.3 t ha-1 yr-1 (mean, by ca. 68%; range, 65-70%). Suitable land management practices in the Abay and Tekeze basins and Dega and Weyna Dega agroecologies, which experience particularly severe erosion, would account for ca. 50 and 70% of the estimated soil loss reduction, respectively. This study can help raise awareness among policy makers and land managers of the extent and severity of soil loss by water erosion for better conservation planning in river basins to support sustainable use of land and water resources.