Accurate prediction of crop yield at the field scale is critical to addressing crop production challenges and reducing the impacts of climate variability and change. Recently released Sentinel-2 (S2) satellite data with a return cycle of five days and a high resolution at 13 spectral bands allows close observation of crop phenology and crop physiological attributes at field scale during crop growth. Here, we test the potential for indices derived from S2 data to estimate dryland wheat yields at the field scale and the potential for enhanced predictability by incorporating a modelled crop water stress index (SI). Observations from 103 study fields over the 2016 and 2017 cropping seasons across Northeastern Australia were used. Vegetation indices derived from S2 showed moderately high accuracy in yield prediction and explained over 70% of the yield variability. Specifically, the red edge chlorophyll index (CI; chlorophyll) (R² = 0.76, RMSE = 0.88 t/ha) and the optimized soil-adjusted vegetation index (OSAVI; structural) (R² = 0.74, RMSE = 0.91 t/ha) showed the best correlation with field yields. Furthermore, combining the crop model-derived SI with both structural and chlorophyll indices significantly enhanced predictability. The best model with combined OSAVI, CI and SI generated a much higher correlation, with R² = 0.91 and RMSE = 0.54 t/ha. When validating the models on an independent set of fields, this model also showed high correlation (R² = 0.93, RMSE = 0.64 t/ha). This study demonstrates the potential of combining S2-derived indices and crop model-derived indices to construct an enhanced yield prediction model suitable for fields in diversified climate conditions.

Rice is a staple food in East Asia and Southeast Asia—an area that accounts for more than half of the world’s population, and 11% of its cultivated land. Studies on rice monitoring can provide direct or indirect information on food security, and water source management. Remote sensing has proven to be the most effective method for the large-scale monitoring of croplands, by using temporary and spectral information. The Google Earth Engine (GEE) is a cloud-based platform providing access to high-performance computing resources for processing extremely large geospatial datasets. In this study, by leveraging the computational power of GEE and a large pool of satellite and other geophysical data (e.g., forest and water extent maps, with high accuracy at 30 m), we generated the first up-to-date rice extent map with crop intensity, at 10 m resolution in the three provinces with the highest rice production in China (the Heilongjiang, Hunan and Guangxi provinces). Optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data were monthly and metric composited to ensure a sufficient amount of up-to-date data without cloud interference. To remove the common confounding noise in the pixel-based classification results at medium to high resolution, we integrated the pixel-based classification (using a random forest classifier) result with the object-based segmentation (using a simple linear iterative clustering (SLIC) method). This integration resulted in the rice planted area data that most closely resembled official statistics. The overall accuracy was approximately 90%, which was validated by ground crop field points. The F scores reached 87.78% in the Heilongjiang Province for monocropped rice, 89.97% and 80.00% in the Hunan Province for mono- and double-cropped rice, respectively, and 88.24% in the Guangxi Province for double-cropped rice.

Taking advantage of multiple new remote sensing data sources, especially from Chinese satellites, the CropWatch system has expanded the scope of its international analyses through the development of new indicators and an upgraded operational methodology. The approach adopts a hierarchical system covering four spatial levels of detail: global, regional, national (thirty-one key countries including China) and “sub-countries” (for the nine largest countries). The thirty-one countries encompass more that 80% of both production and exports of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. The methodology resorts to climatic and remote sensing indicators at different scales. The global patterns of crop environmental growing conditions are first analyzed with indicators for rainfall, temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) as well as potential biomass. At the regional scale, the indicators pay more attention to crops and include Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) as well as Cropping Intensity (CI). Together, they characterize crop situation, farming intensity and stress. CropWatch carries out detailed crop condition analyses at the national scale with a comprehensive array of variables and indicators. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), cropped areas and crop conditions are integrated to derive food production estimates. For the nine largest countries, CropWatch zooms into the sub-national units to acquire detailed information on crop condition and production by including new indicators (e.g., Crop type proportion). Based on trend analysis, CropWatch also issues crop production supply outlooks, covering both long-term variations and short-term dynamic changes in key food exporters and importers. The hierarchical approach adopted by CropWatch is the basis of the analyses of climatic and crop conditions assessments published in the quarterly “CropWatch bulletin” which provides accurate and timely information essential to food producers, traders and consumers.

Timely and efficient monitoring of crop phenology at a high spatial resolution are crucial for the precise and effective management of agriculture. Recently, satellite-derived vegetation indices (VIs), such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), have been widely used for the phenology detection of terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, a framework is proposed to detect crop phenology using high spatio-temporal resolution data fused from Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Tarre5 (SPOT5) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. The framework consists of a data fusion method to produce a synthetic NDVI dataset at SPOT5’s spatial resolution and at MODIS’s temporal resolution and a phenology extraction algorithm based on NDVI time-series analysis. The feasibility of our phenology detection approach was evaluated at the county scale in Shandong Province, China. The results show that (1) the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) algorithm can accurately blend SPOT5 and MODIS NDVI, with an R² of greater than 0.69 and an root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 0.11 between the predicted and referenced data; and that (2) the estimated phenology parameters, such as the start and end of season (SOS and EOS), were closely correlated with the field-observed data with an R² of the SOS ranging from 0.68 to 0.86 and with an R² of the EOS ranging from 0.72 to 0.79. Our research provides a reliable approach for crop phenology mapping in areas with high fragmented farmland, which is meaningful for the implementation of precision agriculture.